What Does Taliban’s Takeover of Kabul Mean for Kashmir and India?

The Taliban’s seizure of Afghanistan has prompted India to scramble its security apparatus for extra vigilance in Kashmir, owing to apprehensions that the developments in Kabul may embolden local militants. However, experts believe efforts in recent years at enhancing ties with the Gulf will pay off in the form of leverage in dealing with Taliban.

In the wake of the Taliban's triumph in Afghanistan, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said India is "very carefully" following developments in the country:

“I think our focus is on ensuring the security in Afghanistan”, he said during a media stakeout at the United Nations in New York last week.

China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan have been carrying out diplomatic activities out of their offices in Kabul, but, New Delhi has pulled out its diplomatic staff from Afghanistan.

“India is not suffering from FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)”, a senior government official in New Delhi told Sputnik, answering the question on whether New Delhi plans to maintain its presence in Afghanistan.

“Let the Taliban form a government in Kabul, only then we will be able to share our opinion. Till then our entire focus is on evacuation”, another official in New Delhi told Sputnik, while emphasising that Afghanistan is a country of diverse tribes, hence, it will not be a cakewalk for any group, including the Taliban.

Experts observe that there are five power groupings currently operating within the Taliban itself, with four of them being neutral while one (affiliated with the Haqqani Network) is close to Pakistan.

“We cannot forget the AI Flight 814 hijacking. We did not want to put our people at risk. Even if the Taliban keep reassuring about the safety of our embassy and people, intelligence input has been suggesting very high risk to them from Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence and Pakistan-based terror groups operating in Afghanistan”, an Indian government official in New Delhi told Sputnik, requesting anonymity.  

Members of Taliban forces sit at a checkpost in Kabul, Afghanistan August 17, 2021

© REUTERS / STRINGER

Militancy in Kashmir

The Taliban’s rapid conquest of Afghanistan has brought back three-decade-old memories of horrors that brought never-ending violence to one of India’s most beautiful areas - Kashmir.

“The security apparatus in Kashmir fears a repeat of the early 90s, when hundreds of fighters who had been involved in the Afghan war crossed the borders to take part in the anti-India insurgency”, Azaan Javaid, a Kashmir-based journalist told Sputnik.

The valley witnessed hundreds of fighters from Afghanistan cause carnage on the streets of Kashmir after the Soviet withdrawal.

“Our only concern is militancy in Kashmir. Other than this, we can wait on other issues. Definitely we will have our voice in Afghanistan”, said the first official, who claimed New Delhi was not suffering from FOMO (Fear of Missing Out).

“The takeover of Kabul by the Taliban was anticipated, but not so early. We expected it to happen around September-October and accordingly we had devised a strategy to deal with the possible fallout in Kashmir”, a government official in Srinagar told Sputnik on condition of anonymity.

However, some experts don't think the Taliban will enter Kashmir to support the ongoing militancy.

“Taliban fighters won’t enter Kashmir. The possibility is next to nil. Taliban have almost always only been bothered about Afghanistan and Afghan issues”, Kabir Taneja, fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation, told Sputnik.

“Taliban is not a superpower. And in the last three decades, a lot has changed. The Indian Army and local police have successfully tackled the militancy as they have built a robust security grid and intelligence network”, Rumel Dahiya, former Indian Army brigadier and defence analyst, told Sputnik.

Indian Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) soldiers guard during a gunfight between Indian government forces and suspected rebels in Srinagar, Indian controlled Kashmir, Monday, Oct. 12, 2020

© AP Photo / Mukhtar Khan