US President Donald Trump has a narrow lead in the key battleground state of Michigan - according to the polling firm that predicted his victory in 2016.
The Trafalgar Group, gave Trump 46.5 per cent of the vote to Democratic rival Joe Biden's 45.9 per cent on Friday
Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen had 2.5 per cent support in the poll of 1025 respondents conducted Sunday and Wednesday this week. the Green Party's Howie Hawkins was on 1.5 per cent and 2 per cent remained undecided with less than three weeks to go to the election.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) October 16, 2020
Women voters, far fewer of whom voted for Trump than did men in 2016, were over-represented in the sample, by 54 per cent to 46. Those in the 45-64 age group which turned out heavily in 2016 were also slightly over-represented.
Fellow pollster Rasmussen Reports called the survey's results "very interesting"
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 16, 2020
Earlier on Friday Trump tweeted that polling figures looked good for him and predicted a "red wave" on November 3, despite most pollsters predicting a landslide for Biden.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 16, 2020
Trump has seen turnouts in the thousands at his election rallies this week, while those for Biden have struggled to attract attendances in the hundreds.
One of the industrialised midwestern "Rustbelt" states, Michigan has a hefty 16 votes in the electoral college which picks the next president, with the winner taking all the electors towards the target of 270.
Biden leads Trump by a ten-point margin in national polls - although with most states 'safe' for either the Republican or Democratic party those surveys mean little.
Trafalgar, Republican consulting firm, correctly predicted Trump's wins in the key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida and North Carolina at the last presidential election, when most other polling firms predicted Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton would win by a landslide.
