Support for Scottish Independence Slumps to Just 44% in Blow to ‘Yes’ Campaign - Poll

Those who want Scotland to go it alone in the world are likely to be disappointed by these latest polling results which suggest that, despite the rancour and divisions in the UK over Brexit, Scots still largely see themselves as British.

Support for Independence among Scots has apparently dropped, according to a new YouGov poll.

The new data reveals that 56 percent of respondents said that they would vote ‘No’ in any upcoming referendum while 44 percent said that they would vote ‘Yes.’

However, the pollsters removed those people who responded ‘don’t know’ or said that they would not vote. Overall, and if accurate, the poll demonstrates a slight climb for the 'No' side which, during the September 2014 independence referendum, won with 55 percent of the total vote.

There were those, however, who felt sceptical of the result's claims.

OK, how do they define “voters” in the poll?
Age group?
Location?
Who are they assuming is eligible?
These are the things that they conveniently do not mention. Or did I miss it, I’m on my 1st cup of ☕️

— Kat Cary🕷 (@kat_cary) 7 December 2019

YouGov was founded in the UK in May 2000 by Stephan Shakespeare and future MP Nadhim Zahawi, at the time both active in the British Conservative Party. In 2001 they engaged BBC political analyst Peter Kellner, who became chairman, and then from 2007–2016, President.[3][4]

— Colony bot /cybernat (@bignormplease) 7 December 2019

Describing it as a sharp fall is pushing it a bit. Sure, I would rather it said 56% yes but it is just a couple of points or so shift from other polls.

— Alistair Cassidy (@AlistairCassidy) 7 December 2019

Its YouGov. As soon as they found out I always chose the indy option they stopped inviting me to take part in political polls and all I got was coffee machine surveys.

— 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 TheScottishZidane 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 (@scottishzidane) 7 December 2019

YouGov carried out a similar poll in September of this year, which found that 49 percent of respondents said that they wanted to leave the UK, while 51 percent said that they would vote against the move. At that time, pro-independence campaigners pointed to the result as sure-fire sign that sentiment was shifting toward the 'Yes' campaign. The latest results however are likely to pour cold water on that.

Moreover, the data also reveals a slump in the number of Scots who think that an independence referendum should be held within the next five years. Overall, 42 percent said that they supported the move, a decrease from August of this year when 45 percent said that they thought it was a good idea. 48 percent said that they were against it up from 44 percent in August.

Interestingly, more people also said that they felt Scottish independence within the next 10 years is more likely if Boris Johnson stays in No.10 following next week’s election than if Jeremy Corbyn won. Over 37 percent of respondents said that Boris Johnson staying on as Prime Minister would boost the likelihood of a second referendum, while 32 percent said that Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister would make an Independence referendum more likely within the next decade.

The poll was carried out using a data sample from 1,002 Scottish adults over a period from December 3 2019 to December 6.