The most recent survey by ZDF suggested Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU party was likely to win 28 percent of votes in the parliamentary election, down from 38.3 percent in the 2013 election.
Its regional coalition partner, the Greens, are expected to emerge as the biggest winner with a record 20 percent, while the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is projected to get 21 percent, down from 30.7 percent in 2013.
If true, these results suggest that the regional CDU-Green coalition will no longer be viable, German media said. More than that, the poll could undermine Merkel’s government in Berlin and threaten her reappointment as CDU boss in December.
Mirroring the Bavarian election, the Hesse vote could mean big gains for the anti-migrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, which is projected to win 12 percent of votes, up from 4.1 percent five years ago.
The AfD was the only party to bring up migration during the election campaign, according to the ARD public broadcaster, despite it being the second-most discussed issue after education.
Crumbling schools and lack of teachers is the biggest concern for voters in the well-off state of Hesse, with 40 percent saying education was their top priority. Migration was important to 29 percent of responders, trailed by infrastructure and housing with 22 and 21 percent of voters.