MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Even though the terrorists from the internationally condemned group Daesh are suffering sufficient losses in the Middle East, and the territory under their control is shrinking, the jihadists might still be able to influence others to commit terrorist attacks on the Daesh behalf, experts told Sputnik.
READ MORE: Daesh Controls Only 5% of Country as Result of Russian Op in Syria — MoD
Earlier this week, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said at a meeting of defense ministers of ASEAN member states and dialogue partners, that Daesh controlled less than 5 percent of the Syrian territory. The terror group has continuously suffered territorial losses from both the Syrian army, supported by Russian Aerospace Forces, and the US-led coalition, which confirmed in a Friday statement the full liberation of the city of Raqqa, the Daesh self-declared capital since 2014, from the terrorists.
Meanwhile, fear of Daesh attack ranked first in global concerns, according to a Pew Research study conducted on August 1. The group has claimed over 80 attacks outside of Syria and Iraq, with the most recent being in Barcelona. The August attack in Barcelona, with a van hitting several pedestrians, injured over 100 people and took the lives of 16.
DAESH TO CONTINUE ATTACKS ABROAD
David Lowe, a consultant on terrorism law and policy and former principal lecturer at the UK Liverpool John Moores University’s Law School, told Sputnik that the Daesh propaganda abilities would continue to remain active despite jihadists' territorial losses in Syria and Iraq.
"Their ideology/narrative has not gone away neither has their propaganda machine where they have been very effective in their communications strategy and no doubt they will still take advantage of this in radicalizing and influencing individuals to carry out attacks in their name. This could take many years for it to be eradicated if it can be," Lowe said.
"It’s just a matter of time before the organization of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria [Daesh] gets totally smashed… It will still be able to inspire the occasional lone wolf attack. It might be able to direct some attacks in the West but as an organization, especially in its stronghold, the group is really suffering. I don’t see that changing. I think we’re going to see more of Islamic State suffering," Abrahms told Sputnik.
TERRITORIAL LOSSES HURT DAESH
Yet if the group's propaganda machine continues to work despite US and Russian military operations, the loss of territory did have a negative impact on how the group is perceived by its potential supporters, Abrahms suggested.
"So first is that its [Islamic State's] main political raison d’etre was the creation of a caliphate. So the fact that the group is losing its territory is very damaging to its narrative. Furthermore, many foreign fighters went to Syria and Iraq to create this caliphate and as it imploded, it dis-incentivized them from making the trip," Abrahms said.
READ MORE: US State Dept. Admits Nusra Front Terrorists Use Chemical Weapons in Syria — MoD
In Abrahms' point of view, the shrinking of the Daesh-controlled territory will also impact the group economically, as revenue streams are often tied to how much territory the terror group is able to control.
"When you think about the Islamic State’s [Daesh] main funding sources, almost all of them come from territorial control. So control of oil fields — that was the main source of revenue for the group… So the group is really struggling financially now, no question about it," Abrahms said.
On October 22, the Syrian Democratic Forces seized Al Omar oil field in the Deir ez-Zor province. The Russian defense minister stated that Daesh's previous revenue stream of $3 billion from oil per year had almost ceased due to the successful conclusion of this operation. It is still unclear, however, to what extent the territorial losses will have an impact on the Daesh ability to continue perpetrating and inspiring attacks outside of Iraq and Syria.
