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Exiting Paris Accord Easiest Campaign Promise to Fulfill for Trump

© REUTERS / Joshua RobertsU.S. President Donald Trump refers to amounts of temperature change as he announces his decision that the United States will withdraw from the landmark Paris Climate Agreement, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2017.
U.S. President Donald Trump refers to amounts of temperature change as he announces his decision that the United States will withdraw from the landmark Paris Climate Agreement, in the Rose Garden of the White House in Washington, U.S., June 1, 2017. - Sputnik International
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US President Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise by the decision to exit the Paris Accord, claiming the multinational agreement on climate would undermine the US economy, according to experts.

MOSCOW (Sputnik) — By withdrawing from the Paris Accord and continuing to roll back environmental regulations introduced under the Obama administration, US President Donald Trump found the easiest campaign promise to fulfill as he tried to please the supporters who voted him into office, experts told Sputnik.

NO CONGRESSIONAL APPROVAL NEEDED

Trump officially announced his decision to exit the Paris Accord on Thursday, claiming the multinational agreement on climate would undermine the US economy, hamstring US workers, weaken US sovereignty, impose unacceptable legal risks, and put the United States at a permanent disadvantage to other countries of the world.

"It is time to put Youngstown, Ohio, Detroit, Michigan, and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania — along with many, many other locations within our great country — before Paris, France," Trump told reporters in a ceremony at the White House Rose Garden.

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Trump’s latest move on climate change came after he signed an Executive Order on March 28 that directed agencies to rescind any pending rules and regulations related to the Climate Action Plan and instructed the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to review and potentially withdraw Obama’s signature rule, the Clean Power Plan.

After struggling to keep a number of promises he made during his 2016 US presidential election campaign, such as immigration and healthcare reforms, Trump looked to be keen on making good on his campaign promises to undo his predecessor’s climate change agenda.

Compared to immigration and healthcare reforms, which usually require a long legal process and approval from the US congress, Trump could easily reverse environmental regulations and commitments introduced by the Obama administration, analysts said.

"Trump is very skeptical about climate change. He is trying to undo everything Obama did. He could do it through executive orders, without any congressional actions," James Van Nostrand, a law professor at West Virginia University and the Director of the school's Center for Energy and Sustainable Development, said.

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When former President Barack Obama formally entered into the Paris Accord in 2016, he did so as an "executive agreement" in which he did not need Senate approval. This is why, Trump can now leave the Paris Accord without consulting the Senate.

The Paris Accord entered into force on November 4, 2016 and countries cannot withdraw until three years have elapsed from when the Accord went into effect. This means the United States would have to stay part of the agreement until November 2019. After that, the rules mandate a one-year notice period, which would mean a withdrawal in late 2020 — after the next US presidential election on November 3, 2020.

CARBON INTENSIVE AMERICA

With executives from coal mining companies and miners standing behind him, Trump introduced his long-promised executive order in late March to abolish President Obama’s climate change efforts and revive the nation’s coal industry. Similar to numerous rallies during his presidential campaign, Trump promised to send the miners back to work.

Trump’s victory in the 2016 US presidential election came largely thanks to support from the white working class in rural areas of the US, especially states in central and mid-west regions. Those states, led by Wyoming, West Virginia, North Dakota, Louisiana and Montana, are the regions with the highest carbon intensity in the United States, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

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Fossil fuel continues to be the dominant source of energy in those states. For example, coal production from Wyoming and West Virginia accounts for about 50 percent of the national total. Trump received about 68 percent of the votes in both of these states.

In her book titled The Politics of Resentment, Katherine Cramer, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin–Madison, tried to investigate the reasons behind Trump’s triumph through an often-overlooked piece of the puzzle in the US presidential election: rural political consciousness and the resentment of the "liberal elite." Rural voters are distrustful that politicians will respect the distinct values of their communities and to allocate a fair share of resources to them.

Trump’s promise to create jobs for working class US nationals such as coal miners, or at least help them to keep their current jobs, helped him pull off an improbable victory over Hillary Clinton last year. Despite steep competition from other energy resources such as natural gas putting a great deal of pressure on the US coal industry, Trump continued to try to fulfill his campaign promise by reversing environmental regulations that are unfavorable to coal, which is a dirtier fossil fuel than natural gas.

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According to the US EIA, coal production in the United States reached a total of 739 million short tons (MMst) in 2016, an 18-percent decline from 2015 and the lowest level of coal production since 1978. But the US EIA expects coal production to increase in 2017 and 2018, as natural gas prices are expected to increase, allowing coal to regain some share of the country's general electricity generation.

Figures from the US EIA showed that in 2016, the electric power sector accounted for an estimated 92 percent of total US coal consumption. From 2008 to 2016, coal’s share of electricity generation decreased, and in 2016, natural gas-fueled generation exceeded coal’s share of US electricity sources on an annual basis for the first time. But coal’s share of US electricity generation still stood at 30.4 percent in 2016, while wind and solar contributed merely 5.6 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, during the same period. About 65 percent of US electricity generation in 2016 came from fossil fuel.

But experts suggest that the demise of the coal industry in the US is irreversible because of the trends of market forces.

"Although coal is still expected to contribute to 25-30 percent of electricity generation in the next 20 years in the US, no new coal plant is being built. Nobody is moving into that industry," Professor Van Nostrand emphasized.

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Van Nostrand acknowledged that it was difficult for lifetime coal miners to transition into new jobs in the renewable energy sector, such as installation of solar panels or wind turbines. He believed it was up to local politicians to take the lead on moving away from their state’s reliance on fossil fuels.

"Political leaders in Pittsburgh (Pennsylvania) did a good job 20-30 years ago transforming away from the steel industry. The political leadership needs to help West Virginia and Wyoming transition into the next great thing," Van Nostrand said.

As Trump takes a series of actions to undo the environmental regulations introduced by the Obama administration, it is unlikely for the United States to meet the target of reducing 26-28 percent in greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels, the Rhodium Group, which has provided an independent annual assessment of US greenhouse gas emissions since 2014, said.

According to the group’s latest research report in May, under current policy, the United States is still set to come within striking distance of its Copenhagen target of a 17-percent reduction below 2005 levels by 2020. But absent any new policy, the United States is only on course for a 15-19 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2025.

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