What to Expect From South Korea's Likely Next President

Moon Jae-in, a former human rights lawyer and chief of staff to President Roh Moo-hyun, is expected to become the next leader of South Korea, but his policies are unlikely to differ greatly from that of his predecessor Park Geun-hye, who was impeached following a large-scale corruption scandal, political analyst Konstantin Asmolov told Sputnik.

Asmolov, a senior expert at the Moscow-based Center for Korean Studies at the Institute of Far Eastern Studies, warned that not much should be expected from Moon Jae-in who has positioned himself as a candidate of change.

"Groundless illusions"

"When it comes to Moon Jae-in, I have seen absolutely groundless illusions which remind me of what some said when Trump was elected: 'He is clearly better than Hillary, all of our issues will now be resolved.' One hundred days later it has become clear that something is amiss. The same with Moon," the analyst told Sputnik Korea.

Asmolov maintained that contrary to what many think Moon Jae-in is actually a conservative, saying that his tough management style was one of the reasons behind the split in the New Politics Alliance for Democracy.

Relations with North Korea, the US and China

Moon Jae-in has ostensibly pledged to create a government "most feared by North Korea, most trusted by the United States and most reliable for China," the analyst said, but Seoul's relations with Pyongyang, Washington and Beijing will not undergo drastic changes if he becomes president.

Asmolov pointed out that Moon Jae-in's stance on North Korea is more conservative than that of Park Geun-hye in the early years of her presidency. He said that Moon Jae-in wants Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear program as a prerequisite to further rapprochement, which could later lead to the reopening of the Kaesong industrial park, a cooperative effort between the two nations. South Korea closed the area after DPRK's latest weapons tests.

Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors arrive at Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, in this handout picture provided by the United States Forces Korea (USFK) and released by Yonhap on March 7, 2017. Picture taken on March 6, 2017

© REUTERS / USFK/Yonhap

The deployment of the US-made Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system has been the main point of contention between South Korea and China. Beijing has been concerned that the weapons complex will present a threat to the region instead of making it safer.

"Moon Jae-in has said that the THAAD issue should be decided by the next administration. However, when he was asked to provide details during the debates, his stance boiled down to the following: 'We will somehow persuade the Chinese so that they would not complain about it.' In other words, it is extremely unlikely that Moon Jae-in will torpedo the THAAD deployment," the analyst said.

South Korea's ties with the United States will remain close since anti-American sentiments in the country are "artificial," Asmolov added.

Relations with Russia

Moon Jae-in has largely refrained from mentioning Russia during the election campaign, the analyst said.

"This means that there will be no priorities in this respect. Old projects are likely to be abandoned due to domestic political infighting. How can we support Park Geun-hye's initiatives? Clearly, at some point in time much will be said. There will be many statements, memorandums of understanding and talk that we are opening a new chapter and everything would be different. This happens every five years," the analyst said.

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