Germany's Migrant Crisis: 'By 2060 There Will Be No Germany as We Know It'

The German Interior Ministry has released its 2016 crime statistics, showing a surge in crimes committed by migrants. In a passionately argued analysis on the risks posed by the country's ongoing migrant crisis, Russian Europe observer Igor Pshenichnikov warns that if current trends continue, Germany as we know it will cease to exist this century.

This week, Germany's Interior Ministry released its 2016 crime figures, showing a dramatic increase in violent crime, including a 14.3% rise in murder and manslaughter, a 12.7% rise in rape and sexual assaults, and a 9.9% increase in serious assaults over the previous year. The figures showed that illegal immigrants, refugees and asylum seekers were suspected of having committing 174,438 crimes, a whopping 52.7% increase over the previous year. 

With the number of German nationals suspected of crimes falling by 3.4%, migrants and refugees were estimated to have accounted for over 12% of all suspected crimes in 2016. Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere called the increase in migrant crime '"unacceptable" and vowed to expel illegal migrants who committed crimes.

Germany watchers say there's a clear connection between this increase in crime and Chancellor Angela Merkel's open door policy toward immigrants. German media, meanwhile, is considering whether the statistics will affect her chances in September's parliamentary elections.

Migrants arrive at the first registration point for asylum seekers in Erding near Munich, southern Germany, on November 15, 2016

© AFP 2023 / Christof Stache

Commenting on the migrant crisis facing Germany and the rest of Europe, RIA Novosti contributor and Europe observer Igor Pshenichnikov recalled that "observing the situation with refugees in Europe over the last ten or fifteen years, it can be argued that the authorities of European countries did not set out to confront the influx of immigrants."

On the contrary, "even before the recent wars in the Middle East, Germany and the Nordic countries…in accordance with established quotas, allowed in significant volumes of refugees, with most of the new arrivals coming from Muslim countries. And the quotas were increased when talking about the categories of 'refugees' or 'political asylum seekers'." 

"The Europeans continued to operate under this paradigm even at the moment, two years ago, when the flow of migrants suddenly turned into a tsunami, in connection with the wars in Libya, Syria and Iraq. It took some time before German authorities, who showed the most favorable attitudes toward immigrants, came to realize the mistake they made in 2015, when they declared all migrants welcome."

But chalking it all down to some kind of' mistake' isn't correct, Pshenichnikov noted. Behind Berlin's logic were macroeconomic calculations which went beyond the interests of ordinary Germans.

Earlier this year, Germany's Rheinische Post newspaper published excerpts from a secret government report, showing that Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to bring about 1.5 million Muslim migrants into the country between 2015 and 2016 was not a humanitarian gesture, but a deliberate attempt to slow the decline of Germany's population, and maintain the viability of the German welfare state.

The report explained that Germany's current fertility rates – 160 births per 100 women, was far below that which would be necessary to reproduce the population (which requires a fertility rate of 210 children per 100 women). Accordingly, the German government calculated that the country 'needs' an estimated 300,000 migrants new migrants each year, in order to preserve economic stability up to 2060.

A man holds up a poster of German Chacellor Angela Merkel before starting a march out of Budapest, Hungary, Friday, Sept. 4, 2015

© AP Photo / Frank Augstein

"It's obvious," Pshenichnikov noted, "that without laborers the economy will not work."

"But it's not so difficult to imagine what this will all lead to by 2060, either. If Chancellor Merkel's macroeconomic calculations are correct, the German economy will not experience shortages to its working population." However, if the migration trends continue, by the time 2060 rolls around, "there will be much fewer actual Germans, for whom all this is all supposedly being calculated, than there are today."

In other words, the analyst explained, if today about 20% of Germany's population has immigrant backgrounds, by "2060 this figure could rise dramatically – and not through the migration of Eastern Europeans, as was considered in the early 2000s, but as a result of migration from the Greater Middle East and Africa."

Even the simplest calculation of 300,000 migrants per year means over 12 million new arrivals by 2060 to complement Germany's population of 81 million. "But this calculation does not consider the difference in birthrates between Germans and migrants, nor the fact that in 2015-2016 alone, Berlin had 'fulfilled its migration plan' for nearly a decade."

These trends threaten to bring with them tectonic changes to Germany's ethnic, culture and religious traditions as well, Pshenichnikov stressed. Today, the analyst recalled, like most EU members, Germany is facing the lowest birthrates in its history. "One of the main reasons for this…is the radical change" that has been observed "in Europe's cultural and religious traditions, or rather, their dissolution into the semi-official ideology of urban individualism," he added.

The migrants, on the other hand, face no such problems, the analyst noted, with Islamic culture favorable to the idea of large families with many children. "Today," Pshenichnikov recalled, "in Germany, followers of Islam (i.e. immigrants, 60% of whom are Turks) are already the largest religious group after Christians." 

The resulting clash between the cultural, social and religious norms that these people bring with them and those of Germany's native population inevitably lead to misunderstandings and conflicts, the analyst added.

"For instance, why did the immigrants show themselves in such a striking manner during last year's New Year's Eve celebrations in Germany – particularly in the infamous Cologne 'night of rape'? Because they were brought up in different, more severe traditions, and consider Europeans, with their gender freedoms, to be [a civilization that is] 'finished', from the moral standpoint, and thus not deserving of respect."

Right-wing demonstrators hold a sign "Rapefugees not welcome - !Stay away!" and a sign with a crossed out mosque as they march in Cologne, Germany

© AP Photo / Juergen Schwarz

Pshenichnikov emphasized that it's "for the same reason that it doesn't seem likely that immigrants will mix significantly with the Europeans: the gulf between the cultures and religions of the East and Europe is simply too wide. The newcomers not only do not wish to be integrated into the local culture; they deeply despise it as something decadent and declining."

The same problems face other European nations as well, particularly the Nordic states, the journalist warned. "The fact that the overwhelming majority of Muslims in Europe are members of Islamic religious organizations suggests that socially and culturally, they prefer not to be assimilated. But they will effectively, and literally, replace the European population, which has been carried away by ideals of individual freedoms and macroeconomic forecasts in an attempt to grow economic capital."

The question, Pshenichnikov laments, is "who will this economic capital be left to?"