Despite the money given to Turkey in exchange for the migrant deal, the influx will soon return to its previous numbers, according to migration expert Dr. Jan Semmelroggen.
Under the agreement, refugees arriving in Greece will be sent back to Turkey, if their plea for asylum is rejected. It also says that for every Syrian migrant sent to Turkey, one Syrian already staying in the country would be resettled in the EU. In return, Brussels will reward Ankara with 3.5 billion euros, grant Turks visa-free travel to the European Union and speed up Turkey’s accession to the euro-bloc.
"What this policy does is forcing migrants into more clandestine routes that will increase the profit margins of the human traffickers that are operating," Semmelroggen told Radio Sputnik.
He added that smugglers will continue making money and attracting migrants through more complex routes than before, as push factors such as unemployment and poverty persist.
"This is a billion dollar business, this is not going away, so we will see a temporary reduction over the next few weeks, maybe months, but eventually, it will just continue from somewhere else," Semmelroggen told Radio Sputnik.
Semmelroggen compared the idea to the US "War on Drugs," in that it gave political capital to politicians, but offers few measurable results.
