The Iranian problem is no longer confined to its nuclear program due to broader developments in the region. Saudi Arabia, Iran and Turkey are vying for regional leadership. Egypt is becoming increasingly destabilized, and the role of the United States in the region is waning.
Iranian officials added fuel to the fire by making statements about possibly closing the Strait of Hormuz, through which up to 40% of global crude oil and considerable amounts of liquefied natural gas are shipped.
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, stationed on the other side of the Gulf, has up to 20,000 personnel on warships and auxiliary vessels and about 3,000 servicemen of the coastal group.
Iranian power boats and Ghadir-class midget submarines have gotten dangerously close to U.S. warships several times. Such actions could provoke armed clashes and, ultimately, hostilities whether the sides want it or not.
Israel does not have regional ambitions but is deeply worried about security along its border. Contrary to what many experts think, Israel is not rushing to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, because its political and military elites are aware of the drastic consequences this move could have.
Whether such a hypothetical attack succeeds or not, Muslim countries would denounce Israel for attacking a fellow Muslim state. This would complicate relations with Egypt and possibly also with Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, aggravate Israeli-Palestinian tensions, and deepen Israel’s political isolation. The response to an Israeli attack would likely include missile strikes on Israel from Hezbollah-controlled areas in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. Hezbollah is believed to have missiles capable of hitting any target in Israel.
It would be best for Israel to avoid any involvement in armed conflict with Iran, shifting responsibility onto its U.S. ally.
Washington would not benefit from using military force to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem. Economic problems have worsened Barack Obama’s re-election chances and forced him to reduce U.S. military presence in Afghanistan. Starting a regional war without sufficient cause would be unwise in these circumstances. A casus belli could be created by Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, but this is highly unlikely.
This is why the Israeli military fear that their country may have to take on the Iranian nuclear problem single-handedly.
Although the United States and Europe are not contemplating an attack on Iran, Israel’s strong ties with the United States give it hope that the U.S. will provide military assistance if needed.
Israel is pessimistic about the effectiveness of political and economic sanctions against Iran. It supported the recent harsh EU sanctions, especially in the banking sector, but claimed they do not go far enough. This is why Israel has been taking actions to slow down Iran’s nuclear and missile programs as much as possible.
A recent example is the blasts at the Revolutionary Guards’ Amir Al-Momenin military base, located 45 km southwest of Tehran, last November. According to Israeli data, the blasts destroyed the testing range for the Shahab-3 theater ballistic missiles and killed 17 people, including Gen. Hassan Tehrani-Moqaddam, who ran Iran’s missile program.
It would be unwise to think that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF or Tzahal) are not ready to strike targets in Iran. However, it is unclear if Israeli strikes on Iranian facilities would be effective considering the distance and the security of these facilities.
The uranium enrichment facility at Natanz is located eight meters below the surface, under several layers of reinforced concrete. A similar facility near Fordo is located inside a mountain and is connected to the surface by five tunnels.
Israel does not possess the military capabilities to destroy the numerous Iranian facilities, but this does not mean the idea has been laid to rest. Israel could be planning to attack critically important elements of Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure using aircraft and sea-launched missiles as well as special operations forces.
No one in Israel doubts that Iran poses a threat, but the possibility of a military attack is not being openly discussed even among experts, possibly because of the high level of trust in the country’s military leadership and a fear of leaks. Hence, the decision will be made, if at all, by a small cadre of security-related ministers based on military intelligence about Iran’s preparations for nuclear testing.
If Israel acquires credible information on an impending test, Israel will most likely attack Iran’s nuclear and missile facilities. This outcome can be avoided only if Tehran ends its nuclear weapons program.
In other words, Israel is not eager for an armed confrontation with Iran, which would have negative consequences even in the best-case scenario. But if Iran crosses the line, that is, decides to conduct nuclear tests, Israel will deliver the blow.
The United States will most likely support its ally, sparking a regional war with huge consequences. Considering the high probability of this scenario, all sides should show maximum caution and restraint.
Vladimir Yevseyev is director of the Center for Social and Political Research.
The views expressed in this article are the author's and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
