Europe heads for electoral purge

© RIA Novosti1. Silvio Berlusconi 2. Angela Merkel 3. Nicolas Sarkozy
1.  Silvio Berlusconi  2.  Angela Merkel 3.  Nicolas Sarkozy - Sputnik International
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It’s anyone’s guess. Which high-profile politicians will go and which will stay? Will those who go leave amid a scandal or honorably? And why will the others stay?

It’s anyone’s guess. Which high-profile politicians will go and which will stay? Will those who go leave amid a scandal or honorably? And why will the others stay?

There is fertile ground for speculation in financially stricken Europe, as many parliamentary and regional elections will be held there in 2011. In some German and Spanish provinces elections will outline the fate that awaits national governments, if not decide it outright, because there has never been a case where those unlucky enough to lose regional elections have risen to the national level.

Economic and political unrest spread across all of the crisis-afflicted regions of Europe last year. Public and political dissatisfaction with governments that pushed their countries to the brink of bankruptcy will be further aggravated by the harsh cuts these same governments have approved for 2011.

Social unrest, strikes and demonstrations shook France and are still under way in Greece (incidentally a country that provoked a broader eurozone crisis), Ireland, Portugal, Britain and Spain.

Early elections in Germany?

Germany, which has, of late, been kept busy saving the euro and firefighting across Europe, has not yet succumbed to the latest Euro-disease. But Chancellor Angela Merkel has another crisis on her hands. Germans dislike the fact that they have to step in, save the euro and shell out to repay the debts of the spendthrift Greeks, chaotic Irish and good-for-nothing Portuguese.

Merkel may still look like a nice big-hearted lady outside Germany but she is no longer affectionately called Mutti (Mom) in her home country. Opposition is also growing within the ruling CDU-CSU coalition comprising the Christian Democratic Union of Germany and the Christian Social Union of Bavaria.

Conservative newspapers such as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung are already writing about a “post-Merkel era.” Most German newspapers compare the chancellor’s present situation to the latter years of Helmut Kohl’s rule, when he was respected outside Germany but disliked at home. Russia’s Mikhail Gorbachev suffered a similar fate at the end of perestroika.

Merkel has a Russian example she would like to emulate, and it is made of sterner stuff than Gorbachev. She keeps a portrait of Russian Empress Catherine the Great in her office on the seventh floor of the Federal Chancellery, known as the “federal washing machine” because of the round-shaped windows and its cubic form.

A pragmatic politician and master of political maneuvering, Merkel is unlikely to be squeezed out of the political scene before her term ends in 2013. However, an early election could be called in 2011 if the rightwing partners withdraw from the ruling coalition. Merkel would then be forced to seek new coalition partners, which does not bode well for Germany or, indeed, the rest of Europe.

Sarkozy? Set to leave

Nicolas Sarkozy will lead France until May 2012, but then what? He should start his election campaign in 2011, but his chances of getting another five-year term in office are fading fast. The French dislike Sarkozy because he has forced pension reforms on them, all the while displaying a shocking love of luxury and predilection for nepotism. His only hope for re-election would be if the socialist opposition fails to put forward a strong joint candidate. Unfortunately for Sarkozy, selections are underway and he will have such a rival by the end of the year.

Bye-bye Berlusconi

Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is most likely to leave the political stage in 2011. Although his term is not due to expire until 2013 (he was elected a third time in April 2008), the most imposing, controversial, scandalous and cocky of all Europe’s premiers – and also the continent’s richest – may lose office long before that date. So many partners have abandoned the Il Сavaliere parliamentary coalition that voting on government proposals invariably ends up turning into a vote of confidence in Berlusconi himself.

So, Italy’s 81st prime minister, the 74-year-old with a notorious eye for pretty young things, will probably leave in 2011, but he will be sure to do so with a flourish. Berlusconi has broken more records than anyone else in the European political elite. He is one of the few Italian prime ministers to hold the post three times and the only one to last a whole second term (2001 to 2006). That is the only instance of this happening in Italy since the end of WWII.

Former coalition partners and the opposition alike accuse Berlusconi of corruption, bribery, palm-greasing in courts, ties with mafia, meeting prostitutes and an unhealthy love of minors. Half of these accusations would be enough to ruin anyone’s life, and the opposition claims the premier is clutching to his post for fear of a prison sentence.

It will be a pity to see him go, as Berlusconi added quite a bit of joie de vivre to European and global summit meetings, negotiations and conferences. He remains unrivalled in Europe for his bravado, his idiosyncratic turns of phrase and his weakness for the fair sex.

The swooning Irish et al

However, the first to leave in the EU will be Irish Prime Minister Brian Cowen, as Ireland is following hard on the heels of beleaguered, semi-bankrupt Greece. The Irish prime minister and his government were designated “lambs to the slaughter” by the Green partner of Cowen’s party Fianna Fail in late 2010.

The Greens said they no longer support their “senior partner” who brought infamy on both country and people when the EU had little option but to buy out Ireland’s debts. The only reason Cowen was not ousted immediately was the fact that the opposition needs him to supervise the adoption of the next budget in parliament.

Fianna Fail is sure to lose the early election scheduled for January: No party in any country can win with only 19% of the vote. However, it is not the Emerald Isle’s political health that the EU is worried about: Who cares how frequently those flighty Celts change government?

The Greeks, Europe’s largest debtors, elected a new parliament in 2009 and will have to tolerate the socialist government of Prime Minister George Papandreou for another four years.

Portugal also had parliamentary elections in 2009, but this does not mean its socialist minority cabinet will survive 2011. The opposition Social Democratic Party, which is more rightwing than the socialist party, has announced that if the country’s economic situation continues to deteriorate in 2011, they will initiate a vote of non-confidence in the cabinet.

Since few expect the Portuguese economy to improve, a no-confidence vote could be held in that semi-bankrupt member of the euro zone as early as late spring. Under Portugal’s parliamentary procedure, elections can be held only after president assumes power. The presidential election is slated for January 23, and the new president will take his oath in March.

The outcome of a dozen other elections scheduled in Europe for 2011 is less certain, possibly with the exception of San Marino, where the country’s two Captains Regent (heads of state) will be elected for a six-month term on April 1.

Outside Europe

Egypt will hold presidential elections in fall. Hosni Mubarak, the fourth president in the country’s history, has been in power since 1981, breaking the records set by the USSR’s Leonid Brezhnev, who ruled for 18 years, and China’s Chairman Mao who was at the helm for 27 years. Mubarak will mark 30 years of uninterrupted presidency in October 2011.

In Egypt the office of president has become a dynastic institution, and Mubarak is preparing to hand power to his younger son Gamal, aged 47. Gamal heads the National Democratic Party's Policies Committee, the third most powerful position in the party, and advises his father on economic matters.
Western democracies dislike “family dynasties” but as a concept it lacks any negative connotations in the East and in Arab countries. Moreover, in Egypt Gamal’s succession is seen as a guarantee of stability.

There are a host of other interesting forecasts for countries outside Europe. But that is a different story.

The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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