Central Asia: A forecast for 2011

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Afghanistan - Sputnik International
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Some of the outgoing year's decisions and events could result in a fundamental shift in the situation across Central Asia.

Some of the outgoing year's decisions and events could result in a fundamental shift in the situation across Central Asia. The most important of these is the planned withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan. Its consequences are impossible to forecast, especially since the withdrawal strategy remains unclear. Germany, for one, doubts that this withdrawal will begin on schedule.

An even more unpredictable element is the actions of the Afghan political groupings both during and after withdrawal. Any civil war that might ensue risks drawing in some of the countries that share borders with Afghanistan: Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

Tajikistan always supported the ethnic Tajiks in their struggle against the Taliban, although with different degrees of intensity. Uzbekistan backed General Dostum, an ethnic Uzbek, and maintained a security zone as a Taliban-free buffer on its border.

Afghan analysts expect to see a repetition of that situation if the Taliban regain power after western coalition troops withdraw. The fractured Northern Alliance might reunite to fight a common threat. Russia's cooperation with that movement would be the only possible way of maintaining stability in Central Asia.

Russia's dominant role in ensuring security across Central Asia could come into question if the United States preserves its military presence in the region after the Afghan pull-out.

Early last year, the United States and NATO, which needed Russia as a transit route for their cargo and troops, changed tack regarding cooperation with Moscow. Consequently, Russia joined the northern transshipment route. Besides, the new Kyrgyz authorities agreed to extend the deployment of the U.S. Air Base at Manas, which has been renamed Transit Center.

What will happen to U.S.-Russian cooperation in Afghanistan, which has grown considerably over the past year and now sets the tone of bilateral relations, if the balance of forces changes in Central Asia?

The apparent answer is that a strengthened U.S. military presence in the region will spark renewed superpower rivalry in the region, with all the ensuing consequences.

The situation in Afghanistan will also influence Russian-Tajik security relations. Russian diplomats have announced Moscow's readiness to consider scenarios for redeploying Russian border troops at Panj on the Tajik government's request. But Tajikistan has hinted that it needs money, not foreign border troops, and the more the better, if it is to strengthen its border.

One way or another, the issue of Russia's military presence in Tajikistan will lead the bilateral diplomatic and military agenda in 2011. Consultations on the terms governing the continued presence of Russia's military facilities in Tajikistan, that had been suspended, have recently been restarted at Tajikistan's request. This change in mood might be due to Russia's decision to levy export duties on its light petrochemicals, which has increased prices in Tajikistan.

Russia could agree to cancel these duties if Tajikistan offers it privileges in the planned agreements on the terms and timeframe of the Russian troop deployment.

According to diplomats, Tajikistan has requested that Russia extradite a Tajik terror suspect currently residing in Russia. Indeed, people suspected of being members of Hizb ut-Tahrir (the Party of Liberation, a pan-Islamic political organization) and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan have been arrested in Moscow and several other Russian cities. However, the decision on their extradition is to be made next year, when the sides plan to discuss the agreements on Russia's bases in detail.

There is clearly a connection between these requests made by Tajikistan and the tragic events of last summer and fall. The escape of 25 prisoners from one of Tajikistan's National Security Committee's high security detention facilities, a car bomb attack on the regional department tasked with fighting organized crime, and the attack on a military convoy in an outlying mountain region, are all evidence of the political instability currently afflicting Tajikistan. The mumbled official explanations about the causes and organizers of those events have done little to clarify the situation, only confirming that Tajikistan is being torn apart by internal division.

The revolt in Kyrgyzstan that overthrew President Kurmanbek Bakiyev was a further destabilizing blow to the region. The subsequent re-division of power in the country's south led to bloody ethnic clashes, which will continue to influence future developments. For Kyrgyzstan there is little hope that next year will be a peaceful one, because all the social, economic and political issues that remain unresolved will become increasingly acute as the presidential election approaches.

Although the presidential powers have been seriously curtailed by the country's new constitution, most local political heavyweights continue to ogle the post, and the battle between the numerous candidates promises to be particularly intense.

Kyrgyzstan has now passed through two cycles of revolution, and the situation on the ground remains unstable. This is, above all, because the new leaders that were brought to power through a revolution are solely focused on their personal needs and do little or nothing to guarantee people's social benefits. Kyrgyzstan could see a third revolution if the parliamentary parties do not live up to people's expectations.

The Central Asian agenda for 2011 contains both internal challenges and knock-on problems that spilled over from the Afghan war. The region changed nine years ago when the United States and its allies arrived in Central Asia. What will happen when they pull out?

Sanobar Shermatova is a political analyst and a member of the RIA Novosti Expert Council.

The views expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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