U.S. President Barack Obama turned 49 on August 4 this year. Traditionally, he celebrates his birthday with his closest family and friends in his house in Chicago, Illinois, where he served as a state senator before moving to Capitol Hill and then on to the White House.
Celebrations for Obama's birthday this year seem quite low-key. But saving all the pomp for his 50th birthday is not such a good idea, actually, as the upcoming autumn is going to be a difficult one for the 44th President of the United States.
The toughest period of a presidency in the United States usually falls in the middle of the term. In Obama's case, this next November will be the threshold beyond which "lack of experience" can no longer serve as a valid excuse for failures and shortcomings. On the other hand, the results of reforms introduced over the first two years in office usually do not become apparent until well into the second half of the term.
To Obama, the challenge will be a double one. He has not yet managed to overcome the negative legacy of his predecessor, George W. Bush, including the downturn in the domestic economy and the military campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq. But the American public is way too concerned about their well-being and prosperity to scrupulously investigate who the responsibility lies with for the nation's current woes. The man they hold responsible is Obama.
Another complicating factor is this year's mid-term elections. All the seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate's seats will be contested in the November 2 vote. At this point, the Democrats hold a majority of seats in both parliamentary chambers (257 against 178 in the House and 59 to 41 in the Senate). But chances are that the Republicans will dramatically reduce this margin in November, and they may even deprive the Democrats of their majority altogether.
Also, 40 seats in the so-called swing states are up for grabs this year, and many of these are now expected to change allegiance in the Republicans' favor.
That said, however, it is not an extraordinary circumstance in U.S. politics for the White House and Capitol Hill to be controlled by different parties. At the dawn of the Reagan Administration, for example, the Democrats had just about the same margin of majority in Congress as they do now.
As a matter of fact, many of those who supported Obama in the election two years ago did not do so because they were die-hard Democrats, but just because they were tired of the Bush Administration and saw the former Illinois senator as an opportunity for change. Another factor that played into Obama's hands was his Republican challenger's advanced age - John McCain was in his early 70s during the 2008 campaign.
Obama's victory was the triumph of hope over experience. But sentiments of this kind are usually short-lived. No longer euphoric about having had the spirit to elect its first ever African-American president, the nation now looks set to call him to account. Unfortunately, not all the claims made against the incumbent president are fair. And predictably so. For, as is known, the American public tends to pin unrealistically high hopes on their leaders and to then mercilessly censure those who fail to live up to those standards.
As for Obama, he is already facing harsh criticism not just for having failed to deliver on his own election promises, but also for all the negative things he has inherited from the Bush Administration, including the after effects of the country's subprime crisis and economic downturn. According to a Rasmussen Reports survey taken in early August, 48% of the respondents believe that Obama's policies are preventing the U.S. economy from getting out of the recession while only 47% attribute the current economic problems to the failures of his predecessor. Thirty percent of those surveyed fully approve of their incumbent president's policies, against 37% vehemently opposed.
Obama has now decided to keep his campaigning for Democrat candidates in constituencies down to a minimum. Presidential advisors as well as strategists for the Democratic Party fear that his frequent appearances may prove counter-productive and have an adversary effect on the hearts and minds of Democrat voters, making many of them sway toward the Republican opposition.
The Republicans meanwhile have launched an all-out offensive on Obama's agenda. Among other things, they have harshly criticized the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, signed this follow-up to the 1991 START in April this year, promising to have their respective legislatures ratify it before long.
John Kerry, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, said the Senate would have no time to process the new agreement before the upcoming summer recess. This means that the deliberations will be postponed till autumn, the most emotionally charged season in U.S. politics, especially in a year of mid-term elections.
Already, the Republicans have put forward 700 questions to START III, and they are pressing for the bill to include guarantees for increased spending on upgrading U.S. nuclear arsenals. For the bill to get through, two-thirds of the senators need to vote in its favor, meaning that the Senate's 59 Democrats will have to secure the support of at least eight of their counterparts from the Republican Party. But so far, there is only one Republican they can rely upon. Therefore, a speedy ratification is not very likely.
The major opposition party has gone as far as moving to amend the Constitution - a rare occurrence for the nation that prides itself on the time-tested fundamentals of its supreme Law of the Land. A large group of senators and members of the House are lobbying to change the provision that gives the right of citizenship to anyone born on U.S. soil. The 14th Amendment was adopted in 1868. Champions of the anti-immigrant motion say that the idea behind this change is to halt "invasion by birth canal." According to statistical accounts, 425,000 children are born to illegal immigrants in the United States every year.
Any motion to change the Constitution can pass through Congress if approved by two-thirds of the Senate and the House, as well as by three-quarters of the states.
All these developments are certainly far from being good news for President Obama, and may well spoil his 50th birthday next year.
RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Fedyashin
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
