The call of the pipes: Putin in Turkey

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The call of the pipes: Putin in Turkey - Sputnik International
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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Fedyashin) - Things are now so mixed up in the pipe and gas business that it is difficult to see where pipes begin and politics ends.

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Fedyashin) - Things are now so mixed up in the pipe and gas business that it is difficult to see where pipes begin and politics ends.

Vladimir Putin's one-day visit to Ankara was balanced on precisely such pipe and politics considerations. Plus the peaceful atom: Russia will now be building for Turkey its first nuclear power plant near Akkuyu on the Mediterranean coast.

To judge from the scale and trend of the documents signed, Ankara will soon turn into a huge energy-handling hub between Russia and the European Union in the southern sector. Now in the north we have Germany and Nord Stream, and in the south, Turkey and South Stream. Two friendships, Nordic and Ottoman.

Turkey has long been a regional heavyweight, and Porte's added "gas weight" will only strengthen it in this role. In recent years Ankara has been increasingly urging Russia to join in a regional forum it conceived for solving crucial Caucasian issues.

The Caucasus war greatly puzzled Ankara, which has close economic ties both with Georgia and Russia. As a NATO country, Turkey "quietly" supported Georgia, to which it sent its military instructors and is now supplying equipment. But Turkey does not want to lose, let alone reduce or weaken, its ties with Russia either, especially in the current hard economic times. After all, Moscow satisfies 64% of Turkey's requirements in gas, and can deliver even more.

If that is not enough, let us bear in mind that more than one million Russians visit Mediterranean Turkish resorts every year, leaving more than $1.42 billion there. Moscow is Turkey's top foreign economic partner - last year Turkey's trade with Russia totaled $38 billion. In the next four years, Ankara hopes to bring the figure to $100 billion. One should not mess about with such things.

By offering itself as a regional platform for settling Russia's "Caucasian problems," Ankara is perfectly aware that the Kremlin will not conduct parleys with Mikheil Saakashvili.

But the Turks, offering their mediating services, very much hope to get Russia's help in an area where such help cannot be dispensed with: That is a settlement in Nagorny Karabakh and normalization of relations with Armenia. In its turn, this means the involvement of Azerbaijan, which Turkey is also proposing to include, "on the kinship principle," in the membership of the Caucasian regional forum. Unless the Nagorny Karabakh issue is settled, Turkey will be unable to normalize its relations with Armenia.

Turkey is being prodded in the same direction by the European Union, or rather Turkey's hope for admission to the EU (one of Brussels' conditions is settlement of relations with Armenia), and its own regional economic interests. But the way to a Turkish-Armenian diplomatic thaw is blocked by Azerbaijan, which has long staked out its claim: It will not welcome Turkish diplomatic overtures to Armenia as long as the Nagorny Karabakh issue remains unsolved.

Only Russia, and this is something everyone realizes, can push Armenia to a softer stance on Nagorny Karabakh. True, Russia will never nudge Armenia to surrender all its interests in Nagorny Karabakh, implying its return to Azerbaijan with broad autonomy rights. That is especially true in the wake of recognizing Abkhazia's and South Ossetia's independence. So, whether we like it or not, our friendship will only thrive on gas, oil and the peaceful atom.

South Stream will make Russia and its customers less dependent on transit countries, in particular, Ukraine, because Turkey will not be a transit country technically. In 2013, the pipe will transport 63 billion cubic meters of gas. Investments in the project are estimated at 25 billion euros. Contractors are Russia's Gazprom and Italy's ENI, acting on a parity basis. In fact, South Stream's inauguration ceremony was an affair for three: Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi also arrived for the occasion.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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