Elections in Iran: revolution postponed


MOSCOW. (Pyotr Goncharov for RIA Novosti) - Iran is seething with opposition rallies disagreeing with the official election returns.

According to some media, opposition slogans have become harsher. In the capital, one can see inscriptions: "Down with the dictator" and even "Down with Ahmakinejad", misspelled as a sign of disrespect. At Iran University of Science and Technology, where Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the newly re-elected president and a professor of Engineering, still draws a professor's pay, a slip of paper was inserted in place of his photograph on the board of honor: "Down with the dictator, be he a Shah or a professor."

The emergence of the word "Shah" has led many experts to draw a parallel with the 1979 Islamic revolution in Iran. At that time, it was initiated by students. And the incumbent president was among their ranks.

In the opinion of many analysts, it was his revolutionary fervor that made him, a man from the provinces, first the mayor of Tehran and then the president of the country. But even being as president Ahmadinejad still positions himself as "one of the people." But both in words and in deeds, he has failed to lessen the tensions between him and the students.

The situation in Iran really bears some resemblance to a revolution. And a "green" one, because the opposition has chosen Islam's green color as "a symbol of struggle against the regime's domination." Still, there will be no revolution, neither a green nor an orange one. The revolution has been postponed. By the supreme (and lifelong) spiritual leader of Iran, Imam Khamenei. Why? In Iran, it is bad form to question the reputation of the "just one." According to the Constitution, everyone has the right to elect, but only the "just ones" enjoy the right to be elected. Naturally, only the most just can be elected among the just. To date there is no one more "just" than Ahmadinejad in Iran. He has already proven this and must be the guarantor of the unshakeable regime of ayatollahs, who determine the degree of "justness" in every faithful Iranian.

However, no one today needs a revolution in Iran. Except the Iranians themselves, of course. It would only upset the situation surrounding the main issue of the day - the Iranian nuclear program. The situation has become routine for all its opponents, or at least, that is what follows from their statements.

U.S. President Barack Obama has said, for example, that he sees no particular difference between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi. Israel went even further. Meir Dagan, chief of Israel's Mossad intelligence service, has said that it is better for Israel to have Ahmadinejad as Iranian president. The victory by Mir-Hossein Mousavi would only have complicated the problem of the Iranian nuclear program. Russia and China, speaking at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Yekaterinburg, joined in the chorus of its participants congratulating Ahmadinejad, who arrived there as an observer, on his re-election.

Now what comes next? In home policy, the ayatollahs' regime will no doubt turn up the heat on its political foes. Some corrective steps will be taken to make the economy more liberal. The economy is the weakest spot of Ahmadinejad's presidency. Progressing inflation and growing unemployment are forcing the regime to undertake some reforms.

Foreign policy is a different matter. Here, the will of the supreme spiritual leader prevails. Khamenei is unlikely to soften Tehran's stance on Israel or give up uranium enrichment. Both are sacred cows for the regime. Khomeini himself has bequeathed his policy towards Israel, while Iran's nuclear program is making it a regional power.

Regarding Iran's ties with Hamas and Hezbollah, now that Hezbollah has lost parliamentary elections in Lebanon, Tehran will draw the necessary conclusions. And, of course, in favor of strengthening them.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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