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MOSCOW, April 17 (RIA Novosti)
Moscow claims top mediator role in Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute / Counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya officially over / Turkmenistan finds a replacement for Gazprom / Gazprom to collect royalties for foreign investors' using Sakhalin resources /

Kommersant

Moscow claims top mediator role in Armenia-Azerbaijan dispute

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, whose Nagorny Karabakh mediation efforts resulted in a declaration signed by the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia on a political settlement to the conflict, intends to build on his former success now.
Moscow is putting extensive effort into the preparations for an Armenian- Azerbaijani summit on Nagorny Karabakh, which will be held in Russia and is expected to confirm Moscow's key role in the peace process.
Relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia became strained when Nagorny Karabakh, a region in Azerbaijan with a largely Armenian population, declared its independence from the Soviet republic of Azerbaijan to join Armenia in 1988. The enclave has been a source of conflict ever since.
Medvedev discussed the issue with Azerbaijan leader Ilham Aliyev in Moscow, while Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov went to Yerevan to talk to Armenia's Serzh Sargsyan. If the two former Soviet republics accept Moscow's mediation, both will be generously rewarded. Armenia will get substantial financial assistance, and Azerbaijan, weapons.
Russia agreed to grant Armenia's request for a dollar-denominated loan, although extending a mere $500 million instead of the $2 billion Armenia had asked for. A high-ranking Foreign Ministry source said that, if that is not enough, Russia will also help Armenia with access to the $10 billion Eurasec anti-crisis fund established earlier this year, possibly in exchange for Armenia's progress to a greater Eurasec integration from its current observer status.
As for the oil and gas-rich Azerbaijan, the Kremlin seems to have found a different approach here. The country has repeatedly shown interest in Russian weapons, such as antitank and air defense systems, tanks and artillery mounts.
So far, Russia was unwilling to supply the weapons due to the "Armenian factor." This time around, Russia can well agree to cooperate. At least, officials in state arms exporter Rosoboronexport have indicated that Azerbaijan was on their list of potential priority partners for military technical cooperation.

Vremya Novostei, Vedomosti

Counter-terrorist operation in Chechnya officially over

The counter-terrorist operation, introduced in Chechnya in September 1999, was ended on April 16, 2009.
Large-scale hostilities ceased in the North Caucasus republic in 2001. Since 2003, Chechnya has had a president who suits the Kremlin, a constitution that says the republic is part of Russia, as well as a parliament, and courts. It will also have soon a system of municipalities.
However, this is mostly a ritual, as Chechen villages would not have survived the war without self-government.
The Chechen parliament invariably supports all the initiatives of President Ramzan Kadyrov, who has more freedom from the Moscow authorities than any other Russian republic or region. Chechens say this is logical and part of the "special rehabilitation conditions." Other Russian republics and regions envy them.
The republic's per capita fiscal capacity is twice the average for the Southern Federal District. Russia has invested huge sums into Chechnya, including 30.6 billion rubles ($916 million) provided in 2002-2006 within the federal target program of the republic's economic and social rehabilitation.
In 2007, the republic received another 11.9 billion rubles, and the program for 2008-2011 stipulates the allocation of 111 billion rubles ($3.3 billion).
So far, this investment has not produced the desired effect. The average pay in the republic (11,490 rubles, or $344) is higher than in the majority of adjacent regions, but unemployment is extremely high, 50% (2008). A comparable level of unemployment is present only in Ingushetia (45%-48%), while the figure for Daghestan is 16% and is lower in the other neighboring regions.
The Kremlin's reliance on the Kadyrovs since 1999 (the late Akhmad Kadyrov and his son Ramzan, the current president) has proved successful. The international community is no longer accusing Russia of fighting its own people. Russian regular troops have been pulled out of the republic, although special forces are sometimes dispatched into its mountain regions to fight Dokka Umarov's groups.

RBC Daily/Kommersant

Turkmenistan finds a replacement for Gazprom

Overseas companies are successfully taking advantage of Gazprom's weakening positions in Turkmenistan.
Ashgabat and Germany's RWE energy holding have signed a memorandum of cooperation on the transportation of Turkmen gas to Europe and the development of the Caspian shelf. Experts believe the agreement paves the way for the Nabucco gas pipeline project, in which the German company is a participant.
Until now, Turkmenistan has refused to sign contracts with specific Western companies. Yesterday's contract follows Russia's 90% cut in Turkmen gas purchases, which resulted in an explosion on the Central Asia-Center-4 gas pipeline. Turkmengaz yesterday announced that "a couple of similar agreements are on the way."
For the mid-term perspective, Ashgabat has no alternative buyer or transiter to Gazprom, said Alexei Belogoryev, head of the gas think tank at the Natural Monopolies Research Institute. The least that could be done now is to create new gas transportation capacities. But the effort will no doubt be redoubled from now on. The Nabucco pipeline will sooner or later go on stream.
The talks between RWE and Turkmenistan have brought Nabucco nearer, says Mikhail Korchemkin, general director of East European Gas Analysis, a consulting firm.
With demand dropping sharply, the import of Turkmen gas loses all sense. So Gazprom's behavior is understandable. But halting Turkmen gas supplies could have the direst of consequences in the future. Without gas from Turkmenistan, Russia's gas budget will run into deficit within a couple of years of the end of the global economic crisis. There is no simple solution to this problem. Even a sizeable reduction in prices is not a way out, because Gazprom is now concerned with loading its own production capacities. For example, it will cut purchases down to the level at which Ukraine is importing gas. Obviously some kind of compromise will be reached to find a way out. But whatever the outcome, Moscow-Ashgabat relations will never be the same again, Belogoryev said.

Gazeta.RU, Vedomosti

Gazprom to collect royalties for foreign investors' using Sakhalin resources

Gas export monopoly Gazprom will become the royalty operator for the two Sakhalin projects, Sakhalin 1 and Sakhalin 2, said Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin. It is surprising that he should be the one to suggest it, as he is a Rosneft lobbyist in government. Analysts believe the move to be part of a deal between the two state giants to divide influence in Sakhalin.
The output of both projects is currently marketed by the project operators, which pay government dues in cash. An authorized trader will charge them commission fees and send the revenues to the budget, an Energy Ministry official said.
Similar schemes are already used in Russia. For example, flag air carrier Aeroflot collects foreign companies' royalties for flying across Russia. These royalties account for an estimated 70%-80% of the airline's net profit. The government must be planning to support the gas monopoly in the same way.
Analysts have so far failed to come to grips with the idea. "Gazprom's financial situation is stable. If it needs support, state banks deliver it," said Alexander Razuvayev, chief analyst at the Galleon Capital investment company.
They are even more puzzled by the fact that Gazprom will also collect royalties from Sakhalin-1, in which it has no stake at all. "It would be more logical to have Rosneft collect the money, as it holds a 20% stake in Sakhalin 1," a market analyst said. "It is more unusual still that Sechin should make the proposal, a director at Rosneft. The two energy giants are known to have strained relations," he added.
Analysts admit that Sakhalin 1 does look very attractive for Gazprom, as its oil subsidiary, Gazprom Neft, is in constant need of materials.
"Sechin's statement could be a goodwill gesture toward Gazprom," said Dmitry Abzalov, an analyst at the Center for Current Politics think tank. "By ceding Sakhalin1 royalties to it, Rosneft could demand certain preferences under Sakhalin 3 and 4 in exchange - possibly Gazprom's non-involvement in these projects."


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