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MOSCOW, March 19 (RIA Novosti) European ABM plans suspended/Moscow trying for Moldova-Transdnestr reconciliation/The Kremlin seems to love Communists/Concessions to Ukraine to cost Gazprom $1.5 bn

Kommersant

European ABM plans suspended

The Czech government has decided to suspend parliamentary hearings on an agreement with the United States on the deployment of a missile tracking radar as part of the European missile defense system. This indicates that the future of the project may not be as bright as it seemed several months ago, a Russian analyst writes.

Andrei Fyodorov, director for political programs at the Russian Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, said the new U.S. administration was considering the deployment of a ballistic missile shield in Europe from a political rather than military angle.

Evidence of this are the numerous signals sent to Moscow, where exchange is a key word. The possibility of an exchange is not great, but it includes Iran and Afghanistan, and the sides can find a compromise that will not harm Russia's interests, the analyst writes.

The logic is simple. A decision not to deploy ABM systems in the Czech Republic and Poland will allow a number of other problems in Russian-U.S. relations to be solved and boost talks on nuclear disarmament and other fundamental agreements in this sphere. But the sides should hurry so as not to find themselves in a legal vacuum by the end of the year.

Positive actions will benefit both sides, including economically, Fyodorov writes. The U.S. is not willing to spend billions of dollars on hypothetical threats so long as there is a chance that Russia could become a reliable ally regarding Iran. Therefore, at their upcoming meeting during the G20 summit in London, the sides may approve vital, and even breakthrough, decisions that would remove the ABM issue from European politics for at least a few years.

Poland, and especially the Czech Republic, would benefit politically from this scenario, since it will allow them to smooth over internal political tensions, prevent government crises, and improve relations with Russia.

It is too early to say that the ballistic missile systems will never be deployed in Europe, the analyst writes. A powerful group is lobbying for them, including in Poland and the Czech Republic. But the latest developments show that there is a fair chance of escaping from that minefield where any unwise or incautious step may lead to irreversible damage, Fyodorov concludes.

Gazeta.ru, Kommersant

Moscow trying for Moldova-Transdnestr reconciliation

On Wednesday, President Dmitry Medvedev held talks with Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and Igor Smirnov, the leader of the self-proclaimed Transdnestr Republic, at his residence outside Moscow and mediated the signing of the first joint document in many years.

In their document, presidents Voronin and Smirnov praised Russia and promised to transform the Transdnestr peacekeeping operation into a new operation under the aegis of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

Until recently, Moscow flatly refused to even discuss the possibility of modifying the format of its Transdnestr peacekeeping operation, while Moldova and the West openly said that the operation's format either had to be changed or the operation itself terminated.

In 2003, Russian plans for locating a military base on Moldovan territory until 2020 became a stumbling block for the so-called Kozak Plan submitted by Russian politician Dmitry Kozak, a close ally of President Vladimir Putin. The proposal aimed to settle relations between Moldova and Transdnestr, but was ultimately rejected by President Voronin.

"This is a completely unexpected statement. Moldova was to have received a Russian loan, but another compromise solution was suddenly found. All this is happening in the context of Russia's more benevolent mood after the August 2008 war with Georgia," said Alexei Malashenko, a member of the Moscow Carnegie Center's scientific council.

"This looks like a concession to Moldova on the part of Russia. Moscow has decided to make this concession in order to preserve its influence. President Medvedev now wants to show that Russia can effectively settle a conflict on post-Soviet space through dialogue, rather than the use of force," Alexei Vlasov, general director of Moscow State University's Center for CIS Studies, said.

Despite the Kremlin's efforts, the Transdnestr peace settlement may be delayed indefinitely. Vlasov said the process could be resumed in three or seven years, but that prospects for settling the conflict looked good.

Malashenko said a possible Transdnestr peace settlement should be linked with U.S. plans to deploy missile-defense system elements in Poland and the Czech Republic and the Iranian nuclear program. "All this looks like part of a broader picture which is beginning to emerge," Malashenko said.

Vedomosti

The Kremlin seems to love Communists

Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the Russian Communist Party, is enjoying special privileges. A direct phone line to the Kremlin has been installed in his office, and his protege has been included in the presidential personnel reserve list, the Top 100.

The only thing Zyuganov is expected to do in exchange is discourage support of the protest movement.

The possibility of establishing a direct phone line to the president was discussed at a meeting between President Dmitry Medvedev and leaders of the State Duma parties on January 28, the president's press secretary Natalia Timakova said.

In her words, the president had said more than once that he was prepared to work with all positively minded political forces represented in parliament.

But a source in the lower house said the issue concerned only Zyuganov, since State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov already had such a phone, and the line had not been installed in the offices of A Just Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party leaders.

Zyuganov also has a direct phone line to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, the source said.

The Russian authorities have recently been showing signs of a special attitude toward the Communist Party, whose leaders are unlike some other politicians who are using the crisis for self-promotion, said a source with close ties in the presidential administration.

Last February, Zyuganov was given a chance to tell Russians about his views of economic policy on the Vesti channel. Acting at his recommendation, President Medvedev put Communist Oleg Denisenko in the Top 100 list.

Other Communists could also be included in the list, while the proposals of A Just Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party have so far been disregarded.

Nikolai Vinogradov, Communist governor of the Vladimir Region, has been appointed for a new term. Besides, the president's draft law on the obligatory rotation of party bosses has been amended to take into account Zyuganov's arguments, and now party bosses can hold their positions ad infinitum.

This attitude of the authorities has not gone unheeded, said a source in the Communist Party's parliamentary group. For example, Communists have not filed a lawsuit with the Strasbourg Court regarding the results of the parliamentary elections. And, most importantly, they are not encouraging protest actions and strikes.

The leadership of the Communist Party is pursuing a clear policy, according to which all opposition initiatives should be cushioned, if not blocked, said political analyst Mikhail Tulsky.

Gazeta

Concessions to Ukraine to cost Gazprom $1.5 bn

Ukraine has successfully talked Russia into cutting natural gas exports in 2009 to 33 billion cubic meters from 40 billion. Analysts estimate that the decision will cost Russia's gas export monopoly about $1.5 billion and, worse, create a tempting precedent for other importers.

"Russia has given its preliminary consent, which was not yet documented," Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuriy Prodan told reporters on Wednesday. However, he did not specify when the issue would be finalized. Nor did he cite any reasons why Gazprom should agree to lose part of its own export profits.

Naftogaz of Ukraine has repeatedly violated the gas "peace" it signed with Gazprom on January 19. That contract stipulates a minimum monthly amount of natural gas Ukraine has to withdraw from the pipes, but Ukraine has so far failed to comply with this condition. Although the companies declined to specify the difference between that amount and what Ukraine actually taps, it reaches 50% according to some estimates.

Also, under the contract, Naftogaz is to pay a fine worth 150% of the value of the gas it failed to withdraw between October and March. However, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller said no sanctions would be imposed on Naftogaz. A source in the Ukrainian company said it had promised certain incentives to Gazprom during talks.

"The decision to cut exports to Ukraine was something Gazprom was forced to do, as it will be good enough during the economic crisis if Ukraine at least paid for the gas it has actually taken," said Alexander Shtok, director of the due diligence department at the independent consulting group 2K Audit - Business Consulting.

On the other hand, the concessions to Ukraine set a bad example for Gazprom's other partners. "It has take-or-pay contracts with all gas consumers. Considering the general drop in gas consumption, it is possible that other importers will decide to reduce acquisitions of contracted gas. They could make references to Ukraine which was not fined for a similar violation," he added.

RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.

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