Why should North Korea launch a missile?

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MOSCOW, March 12 - RIA Novosti (international commentator Ivan Zakharchenko) - Regular malnutrition and an almost global blockade have not prevented North Korea from developing missile technologies. Now Pyongyang has announced its intention to launch a rocket with a communications satellite from its spaceport. It must have very serious reasons for doing this.

As distinct from the past, this time North Korea did not make a secret out of this launch, especially after U.S. spy satellites tracked down the transportation of what looked like components of a ballistic missile to the testing ground on the country's eastern coast.

The North Korean Aerospace Technologies Committee announced in advance North Korea's intention to launch a satellite with a carrier rocket poetically called Unha-2 (The Milky Way). North Korean officials explained that Pyongyang continues its ambitious space program started in the 1980s to turn the country into a "mighty power" by 2012.

One of the reasons for rocket launches is rooted in the domestic situation. Although its stability is beyond doubt, national leader Kim Jong-il has not been seen in public for a long time, and is rumored to be in bad health. A spacecraft launch can well promote pride, patriotism, and hence, his prestige in North Korean minds.

Second, the launch is linked with Barack Obama's election. It is a good way of attracting Washington's attention now that it is focused on the Middle East, Iran, and the domestic economic crisis. In the past, the result was guaranteed. A North Korean nuclear test in October 2006, for instance, was a catalyst for six-party talks in Beijing with the participation of Russia, the United States, China, both Koreas and Japan. They are aimed at Pyongyang's irreversible renunciation of nuclear R&D.

Third, this launch will be addressed to South Korea, which has had a conservative government for a year. This government has given up South Korea's ten-year course towards rapprochement and cooperation with Pyongyang.

The South Korean public should see North Korea's achievements in space technologies, on the one hand, and realize that they could become a dangerous weapon if relations between two Koreas are tense, on the other. Apparently, North Korea expects South Koreans to display their displeasure with Lee Myung-bak's policy and demand resumption of cooperation with Pyongyang.

Fourth, although Pyongyang claims that this will be a civilian launch, the space technologies used in the process can well be used for military purposes - to launch intercontinental ballistic missiles. Nuclear weapons could make these technologies a serious argument in North Korea's attempts to uphold its interests, for instance, restore relations with the United States.

South Korea considers even a civilian launch to be a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1718, which prohibits Pyongyang to develop ballistic missiles.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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