The current military regime, which has ruled for two decades, has arranged for society's transfer to civilian rule, and held a nation-wide referendum. The outcome has yet to be announced, but preliminary reports suggest the draft Constitution proposed by the generals has received wide-spread support.
The referendum, which had been long and thoroughly prepared for, was held last Saturday despite the tragedy that befell the south and east of the country last week. Typhoon Nargiz killed an estimated 28,000 people, mostly in the Irrawaddy delta. More than 33,000 are still missing.
In the places hit by the typhoon voting was delayed to May 24, but its results are not likely to affect the outcome of the referendum, which the regime's critics have already called dishonest and undemocratic.
Not that this is surprising. It would be strange to expect Western democratic standards flourish in a country in which a military regime was building socialism as early as 1962, and where the latest junta of capitalist-oriented right-wing generals took power in 1988.
The military took power in Myamnar, which won independence from Britain in 1948, because national strife had plunged it into a state of chaos, terror, and civil war. The country is inhabited by more than 130 ethnic groups, and has never had any positive experience of democracy. During half a century of military rule, the opposition in the country and beyond has been unrelentingly negative about any undertaking of the junta, even finding fault with its plan to switch to civil government.
In this context, the National League for Democracy (NLD) and its leader, Nobel prize-winner Aung San Suu Kyi, a daughter of the national hero who led the struggle for independence against both the British and the Japanese, urged the nation to boycott the referendum. But sources in Yangon told RIA Novosti that most people in Myanmar decided to vote, if without much enthusiasm. They believe that otherwise they will be doomed to the same military regime forever.
The draft Constitution that the opposition is so critical of reserves a quarter of seats in parliament for the military, which will allow them to take power into their hands in the event of an emergency.
The generals maintain that Myanmar is not the only country where part of the seats in parliament are given to appointed, rather than elected, law-makers.
The referendum's results will be made public after May 24. The Constitution is likely to be approved; general elections will be held, and presidential rule introduced in 2010. A president will be elected - not directly, but by an Electoral College. Myanmar's last elections were held in the 1990s, but its one-chamber parliament did not convene a single session. When the opposition won the majority of seats the military refused to recognize the results, on the pretext that it would threaten the country's stability.
Economically Myanmar is seriously lagging behind its neighbors, such as Thailand or Malaysia, but its military authorities are trying to step up the development of its infrastructure, and the market-oriented economy. Private trade is on the upsurge, though for the time being only jewelry salons and Chinese restaurants seem to prosper. Street markets, however, abound with different goods, and are visited by many people.
Military rule is not visible to the naked eye - its only signs are vehicle check points, and the generals' occasional visits to the construction sites of bridges, dams, hospitals, and schools.
But apparently the leaders of the military regime understand that it is impeding economic advance and the growth of foreign investment. This is undoubtedly one, if not the, motivation behind their plans to make a gradual transition to civil rule.
Brigadier General Kyaw Hsan, Minister of Information and one of the regime's main ideologists, told Russian journalists last April: "The military government is really trying to achieve national reconciliation. This is why it is discussing this issue with Aung San Suu Kyi."
Initially, a national congress attended by more than one thousand delegates, including those from the NLD, was convened to start the transition to civil rule. But in 1995, the NLD delegates left the forum and ignored the government's proposal to continue dialogue on reconsolidation.
This is why opposition representatives did not take part in the National Congress, which was convened last year to endorse the principles of the new Constitution.
Writing about violations during the referendum, many western journalists reported gossip and uncorroborated statements by individuals about their fear of voting against it. Reporting that from 80% to 90% of votes were in favor of the Constitution, the foreign press called into question the very fact that so many people could support what was offered by the military regime.
But the people of Myanmar, who have backed the Constitution, voted not so much for the military regime, as for their hopes of a new life - without military rule. This change will not happen overnight, but the first steps towards it have already been made.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
