MOSCOW, May 4 (RIA Novosti) Washington might bomb Iran to stop gas cartel / Saakashvili targets Medvedev after failing to persuade Putin / Freedom House criticizes the United States / Basic Element quits tender for purchasing RTB Bor
RBC Daily
Washington might bomb Iran to stop gas cartel
On April 30, a high-ranking Pentagon official was reported as saying that the United States was planning to attack Iran if the latter does not curtail its nuclear program and stop arming Iraqi Shias.
Experts say the true goal behind the alleged plans is to stop Gazprom establishing itself in the region and the efforts of Tehran and Moscow to set up a gas cartel.
The same day, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in New Delhi that India was prepared to sign an agreement on the construction of a gas pipeline from Iran to India via Pakistan. The Pakistani prime minister expressed support for the project. The Russian gas monopoly has supported the project and proposed investing in it for a share in the consortium.
Igor Tomberg, a senior research fellow at the Center for Energy Studies of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations at the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Russia might propose building a kind of a Nord Stream pipeline along the Arabian Sea bed, bypassing unstable Pakistan.
The United States, which has its own plans for Iran's gas, is categorically against the Iran-Pakistan-India pipeline.
Another headache is the proposed gas cartel, whose charter may be approved this summer at the Moscow meeting of the energy ministers of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF).
Iran is also trying to involve Gazprom in its projects. In late April, the concern agreed with the National Iranian Oil Company to set up a joint venture for the development of three license areas of the South Pars gas deposit.
Taken together, this is of major importance for global power generation, which will increasingly depend on gas in the 21st century, said Konstantin Simonov, head of Russia's National Energy Security Fund.
This is forcing Washington to take unusual steps. On April 30, the second conference of the World Congress of Azerbaijanis (WCA) was held in Baku with the assistance of Azerbaijan's State Committee for the Diaspora. The WCA was set up in the Untied States in 1997 to fight for the independence of southern Azerbaijan, i.e., the northern provinces of Iran populated by Azeris. Congress participants actually presented territorial claims to Iran.
In 2006, military analyst Ralph Peters published an article, "Blood borders. How a better Middle East would look," in which he writes that in a better Middle East "Iran, a state with madcap boundaries, would lose a great deal of territory to Unified Azerbaijan."
That the White House supports the idea became clear when it actually divided Iraq into Sunnite, Shiite and Kurdish pseudo-states in 2007. The United States views Azerbaijan as a key ally in the South Caucasus and a potential NATO member, as well as one of the four bridgeheads for a possible attack on Iran.
Kommersant
Saakashvili targets Medvedev after failing to persuade Putin
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov finally admitted yesterday that Russian peacekeeping forces had been deployed in Abkhazia in response to Georgia's steps toward NATO accession. Officials in Tbilisi, however, still hope that tensions could be resolved at the June CIS summit during talks between Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.
Lavrov returned from London yesterday where a ministerial meeting of the Middle East Quartet took place after holding bilateral talks with US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and British Foreign Secretary David Miliband. He said his Western counterparts were more interested in Russia's exacerbating conflict with Georgia than in the current Middle East situation.
The Russian minister pointed out that, although Russia had withdrawn its military bases from Georgia, Tbilisi seemed in no hurry to establish the planned Russian-Georgian anti-terrorist center or pass a law banning foreign military bases from the country.
Lavrov was very open about who was to blame for the situation. "I believe the failure to reach agreement on the issues has to do with plans to pull Georgia into NATO," he said. He also indicated that the increase in the number of Russian peacekeepers in Abkhazia was Moscow's response to that.
According to Kommersant, it was President Vladimir Putin who first told the NATO summit in Bucharest that Moscow could retaliate. On April 16, he told the government to establish "special" relations with the self-proclaimed republics, launching the two regions' integration into Russia's social and economic space.
However, Tbilisi still hopes that Moscow will go back on its tracks. A source in Georgia's Foreign Ministry told Kommersant that Tbilisi has no plans yet to demand officially that Russian peacekeepers be replaced with an international contingent. It is now focusing on the CIS, complaining about Moscow's actions to the CIS Secretariat.
Sources in Georgia's State Chancellery also said President Mikheil Saakashvili was hoping to discuss the situation in the country with Russia's new president, Dmitry Medvedev, at the next CIS summit in St.0 Petersburg in early June.
According to reliable sources, Georgia's further strategy will depend on the results of the meeting.
Kommersant
Freedom House criticizes the United States
Freedom House, which annually surveys the state of freedom around the world, will present its first study concerning the United States, "Today's American: How Free?" at the National Press Club in Washington on May 5.
According to the organization, "the report examines whether America is sacrificing its essential values in the war against terror and scrutinizes preexisting issues such as racial inequality, immigration and flaws within the criminal justice and political systems."
The authors of the survey note that the United States, along with Russia and Belarus, has one of the highest incarceration rates per 100,000 citizens. They criticize authorities in Washington for using administrative resources during elections, and President George W. Bush for appointing his pals to high posts.
But the conclusion is shocking: the United States remains undeniably freer than the majority of other countries.
Russian authorities have never liked Freedom House. Vladislav Surkov, deputy chief of the Kremlin staff, said: "Only an idiot can believe the purportedly humanitarian mission of that agency." In his opinion, Freedom House played a major role in the so-called color revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine.
Trying to counter its influence, Russian authorities set up the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation in January 2008 to monitor human rights in the West.
Lawyer Anatoly Kucherena, a member of the Public Chamber and head of the new Institute, said the idea came to him when he saw Freedom House's report for 2007, which described Russia as a politically non-free country alongside Iran, Libya and North Korea.
Kucherena told the popular business daily Kommersant yesterday about the new survey: "I think one of the reasons for its appearance was the establishment of the Institute for Democracy and Cooperation, in particular the opening of its headquarters in New York. They saw that they must provide information about the United States, or somebody else will."
Kucherena also said the Institute's organizing period was over and political analyst Andranik Migranyan, who heads the New York office, will soon start working. The first report, which will also cover the situation in the United States, can be expected in late May.
"Everything looks fine there, but talking with people shows that not everything is as good as it seems at first glance," the lawyer said.
Kommersant
Basic Element quits tender for purchasing RTB Bor
The holding company Basic Element, owned by business oligarch Oleg Deripaska, has decided not to participate in further negotiations with the Serbian Privatization Agency as regards the acquisition of the RTB Bor copper mining and smelting works.
Analysts said Basic Element wanted Belgrade to be more compliant, and that Serbian authorities were ready to modify the terms of the deal.
Basic Element explained its refusal by Belgrade's desire to change the terms, form and content of the holding company's involvement in privatizing RTB Bor.
The Serbian company controls copper deposits containing an estimated 3 million metric tons and can turn out 150,000 metric tons of copper per year. However, production has been halved due to obsolete equipment and the lack of liquid assets. Moreover, RTB Bor owes $500 million in debts.
Basic Element public relations director Jelena Rollins said the minimal tender price was $340 million, plus at least $180 million in investment.
She said the Basic Element offer included a $370 million initial payment and a four-year comprehensive investment program worth $414 million.
According to Rollins, the company disagreed with some of the Serbian government's terms. For instance, Basic Element did not want to assume limited liability for the environmental consequences of the production process.
"It is extremely difficult to assess the scale of environmental problems that have been accumulating for years," Rollins told the paper.
Dusan Belanovic, spokesman for the Serbian Privatization Agency, said a third tender for the sale of RTB Bor would be held if Basic Element refused to negotiate.
"We are ready to negotiate with the Serbian authorities and will examine mutually beneficial cooperation," a Basic Element spokesperson told the paper.
Analysts said the Basic Element decision highlighted its interest in RTB Bor.
Nikolai Sosnovsky, a metals analyst at Sobinbank, said the Russian company probably wanted to pay the starting price and to focus on a long-term investment program.
BrokerCreditService analyst Oleg Petropavlovsky said Belgrade may eventually accept Basic Element's terms and would decide not to hold a third tender.
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