MOSCOW, March 21 (RIA Novosti) FSB finds spies in BP and TNK BP offices/ New York Sun acquits alleged killer of Litvinenko/ Ukraine's actions may disrupt gas supplies to Europe/ Tajikistan drifting away from Russia/ Russia should recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia - political analyst/ PepsiCo finds a way to outdo Coca-Cola in Russia
Kommersant/Gazeta
FSB finds spies in BP and TNK BP offices
On Thursday, the official motive for document seizures in the Moscow offices of TNK BP and BP Trading Ltd. became known. The story given out in the afternoon by FSB's public relations center surprised many people. It appears the searches were conducted to find evidence that Ilya Zaslavsky, on the staff of TNK BP Management, and his elder brother Alexander, a British Council employee in Russia, had engaged in industrial espionage for foreign companies.
Sources at TNK BP noticed that the searches were carried out not only in the personnel department and at the workplace of Ilya, a young man employed by the company for minor duties, but also in many other premises. The sources had the impression that industrial espionage was a pretext for a massive raid being prepared by law enforcement agencies. Ilya proved to be a convenient figure for law enforcers because his brother Alexander is the head of a British Council project.
Thursday's scenes seemed somewhat odd, and the FSB charges sounded flat. The lack of force and conviction in the story suggests a political motivation. Indeed, it is hard to find a better moment for a spy scandal and an inevitable impairment of relations with the West than on the eve of NATO's April summit in Bucharest, a key event for Russia which could decide the alliance's eastern expansion.
At least one source in the Kremlin sees the political connection here. "The attack on the company, which is half-British, may have been staged by a group of so called siloviki to mar Medvedev's image in the world and at the same time to show that the fight for the presidency is not yet over," the source said.
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
New York Sun acquits alleged killer of Litvinenko
No one murdered Alexander Litvinenko - he ingested the poisonous Polonium 210 isotope by accident, the New York Sun newspaper wrote Thursday. It said the former security service agent handled the substance because he was involved in its trafficking, a theory somewhat contrary to the multiple media reports bluntly accusing Russian businessman Andrei Lugovoi of murder.
Lugovoi, now also a member of parliament, said with satisfaction that he had talked about that possibility at a November 2007 news conference in Moscow.
The New York Sun article suggests that its author has had access to many documents pertaining to the Litvinenko case, including Britain's request to extradite Lugovoi. After analyzing them, the investigative journalist concluded that London had presented the Russians with "embarrassingly thin substantiation" of the murder charges against Mr. Lugovoi.
Lugovoi told Rossiiskaya Gazeta that Litvinenko had loved risk and adventure and he could have been involved in trafficking a poisonous substance without being fully aware of the hazards of the occupation. He, however, denied the suggestion that he had initiated the New York Sun investigation and talked the American journalist into confirming his own version of the events. He said the New York Sun reporter had undertaken an independent investigation, and only talked to Lugovoi a couple of times on the phone.
The journalist also interviewed Lugovoi by email. The businessman said that, "the American had been pretty well informed before that article." This was obvious, he said, because he was asking very specific questions. He had conducted a very profound inquiry and mentioned details even Lugovoi was ignorant of.
Lugovoi said Britain's extradition request contained no facts - no expert conclusions or evidence given by eyewitnesses. That is why Moscow insisted that the British publish all their case materials. Russian investigators would have then published their conclusions, too, and the public could have decided the truth for itself, Lugovoi said.
Kommersant
Ukraine's actions may disrupt gas supplies to Europe
Ukraine's authorities have banned gas exports by the Rosukrenergo gas trader, 50% of which belongs to Russian gas giant Gazprom.
On March 20, Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko excluded the company from gas withdrawal from the Ukrainian gas depots and gas transit by Rosukrenergo to European consumers via Ukraine from the March 12 agreement with Gazprom.
Experts think that Tymoshenko has thus taken all the measures to fully liquidate the gas trading intermediary. Rosukrenergo's European clients believe that Ukraine's new initiative will lead to the disruption of their gas contracts and to a concern in Europe.
Valentin Zemlyansky, press secretary of Naftogaz of Ukraine, thinks that Rosukrenergo will be able to buy gas from Naftogaz at the Ukrainian-Polish border and then sell it in the EU. However, he failed to explain in detail the mechanism of implementing Rosukrenergo's contracts with the EU.
In 2007, Rosukrenergo supplied 10.2 billion cubic meters of gas to the European Union.
Tymoshenko warned on March 20 that she was not going to step up negotiations on long-term strategic cooperation with Gazprom. She also said that the time when agreements were reached through "bribes" was gone.
Janos Petofi, director general of Hungary's wholesale gas distributor Magyar GT, says that Rosukrenergo has over a hundred partners in Hungary alone, and also in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Work with Rosukrenergo allowed them to mitigate the consequences of Gazprom Export's monopoly status.
In Petofi's opinion, if Ukraine limits supplies under Rosukrenergo's contracts, it will see a collective action by all gas purchasing companies, who may demand the interference of the EU leadership.
Brussels had no comment on the Ukrainian initiative yesterday, as the EU has its Easter holidays from March 20 to March 25. The Russian mission in the EU also declined to comment on the situation.
However, the 1994 Energy Charter Treaty signed by Ukraine in 2006 obliges all member countries to "ensure reliable cross-border energy transit flows through pipelines, grids and other means of transportation" even in case of transit disputes. Special provisions of the treaty on trade in energy resources and their transit are based on the WTO rules, and Ukraine is now a WTO member.
Since Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller is currently on vacation, Gazprom also refused to comment on Ukraine's actions. However, a source close to Gazprom said that Rosukrenergo is not legally obliged to ensure Ukraine's fuel and energy balance, since it possesses a long-term gas transit contract, signed in 2005, and all gas transit volumes are specified in terms of years.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Tajikistan drifting away from Russia
Preparations are underway for a trilateral summit involving presidents Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hamid Karzai and Emomali Rakhmon of Iran, Afghanistan and Tajikistan, respectively. There are plans to sign an agreement on establishing a trilateral economic council at the summit.
The traditionally pro-Russian Tajikistan is now gradually drifting toward Tehran.
"In the last two years, Russia has been implementing a self-serving policy with regard to Central Asia and Tajikistan," Rashid Abdullo, an expert on Tajik affairs, told the paper. He said Moscow had expanded ties with new partners to the detriment of its old-time strategic allies.
Relations between Moscow and Dushanbe got markedly worse after Russian aluminum giant RusAl and the Tajik government failed to agree on the technical parameters of the Rogun hydropower plant. Nor did Tajikistan like Moscow's decision to support Tashkent in a long-time Uzbek-Tajik dispute on the use of regional water resources. Uzbekistan actively opposes construction of hydropower plants on crossborder rivers.
Tehran, which considers Tajikistan as a part of a Greater Iran, took advantage of Russia's weakened positions. This winter, President Rakhmon went to Iran for help after his energy-strapped country failed to get any substantial help from its neighbors. Ahmadinejad agreed to provide economic aid to Dushanbe, reaffirmed his intention to finance construction of the Tajik-Iranian railroad via Afghanistan and promised to expedite construction of the Sangtudin hydropower plant's second stage - to build the Shurob hydropower plant on the Vakhsh River and a modern cardiological center in Dushanbe.
Andrei Grozin, head of the department of Central Asia and Kazakhstan studies at the Moscow-based Institute of CIS Countries, said Tajikistan was trying to counterbalance the growing regional influence of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
"Tajikistan probably thinks that Russia will not pressure Uzbekistan and is therefore trying to solve this problem with Iran's help," Grozin told the paper.
Vedomosti
Russia should recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia - political analyst
The draft statement to be considered today by the State Duma, the lower house of the Russian parliament, contains a small hint that Russia could consider recognizing self-proclaimed republics within Georgia in the case of the latter joining NATO.
Vladimir Nikitin, a Communist member of the house committee on the CIS affairs, said the committee chose wording which stated that Russia would "take decisive action" if Georgia begins a military operation or joins the North Atlantic Alliance.
This clause implies acting decisively to protect Russian citizens residing in the self-proclaimed republics in Georgia, said Igor Barinov, a United Russia-delegated committee member. "Once we recognize their independence, we'll find ourselves in international isolation, but we do have responsibilities to, and for, Russian citizens," he added.
Parliament's statement sounds very impressive, and reflects Moscow's attitude to the Kosovo issue and to the situations of our compatriots [in Georgia], Nikitin added.
U.S. President George Bush said earlier this week that he supported Georgia's projected membership in the alliance. The prospects of elevating the level of Georgia's relations with NATO will be discussed at the upcoming April 2-4 Bucharest summit.
On the other hand, according to Germany's Angela Merkel, a country involved in regional conflicts could not be a NATO member.
Political analyst Alexander Skakov, an expert with Russia's State Institute of Strategic Studies, said: "To stop the process of Georgia's accession to NATO, Russia should recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia's independence now, because it will be too late when Georgia becomes a member." Russia will have to stand up to NATO then, the expert warned.
In 1979, the United States adopted a bill on relations with Taiwan. Although the U.S. recognizes Taiwan as a Chinese territory, the bill allows Americans to sell armaments to Taiwan and maintain economic contacts, as well as to get involved in the case of any military invasion of Taiwan by Beijing.
Business & Financial Markets
PepsiCo finds a way to outdo Coca-Cola in Russia
PepsiCo, one of the world's leaders on the soft drink market, has agreed to pay $1.357 billion for 75.53% of the Lebedyansky holding, a major Russian juice maker. As a result, PepsiCo will outstrip its global rival Coca-Cola on the Russian juice market.
The Americans will buy no more than the juice business, with baby food and mineral water not entering into the deal. The companies plan to wind up their deal in the third quarter of this year. PepsiCo is to apply to the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service to buy a stake in the Russian company.
PepsiCo is one of the world's largest food and drink producers. Its 2006 turnover reached $39 billion. Lebedyansky's 2007 revenues stood at $944.8 million. It has 23.87% of its stock in free-floating shares.
This is PepsiCo's second deal this week. The company is also buying Sobol-Aqua, a Novosibirsk producer of carbonated drinks. Last year, PepsiCo was placed sixth on Russia's juice market, controlling 1.8% of it in value terms, while its main rival Coca-Cola (owner of Multon and Aqua Vision) ranked second with over 22%.
PepsiCo has paid a sizeable premium for the Russian asset, or 20%, said Andrei Verkholantsev, an analyst at the investment group, Antanta-Pioglobal. "This was due to Lebedyansky's leading positions," the expert said.
By buying Lebedyansky, PepsiCo gets an excellent headstart for expansion in Russia, said Yekaterina Struchkova, an analyst at IFC Alemar.
Zein Abdulla, president of PepsiCo Europe, said his company was planning an even more aggressive campaign in Russia.
But only small regional companies remain attractive on the market, said Marina Samokhvalova, an analyst at Kapital investment group.
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