MOSCOW, March 19 (RIA Novosti) Russia ready to bow to U.S. anti-missiles in Eastern Europe/ Russia gives Abkhazia access to Sochi Olympics preparations/ FSB expands foreign operations/'Russian aggression' paranoia deliberately fueled in Europe - experts/ Central Asia resists long-term contracts with Gazprom/ Gazprom to conduct exploration on three fields in Bolivia
Kommersant
Russia ready to bow to U.S. anti-missiles in Eastern Europe
Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, following talks with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, agreed that American concessions could "minimize the concerns" of Moscow.
The change of heart is due to a U.S. pledge to state in writing that it will not load interceptor missiles into silos in Poland, strip the radar meant for the Czech Republic of its ability to track targets over Russia and allow Russian inspectors access to the missile facilities. The Americans are also prepared not to rush Georgia's and Ukraine's integration into NATO.
It is a long time since American guests have seen their Russian opposite numbers so friendly. Late at night on Monday, during a meeting with American journalists, Gates said he was surprised at the affable way in which Putin and Medvedev met Condoleezza Rice and himself. According to the Pentagon chief, their meeting with Putin helped to clear up misunderstandings between Moscow and Washington.
Russia's main demand is that the U.S. should put all the proposals it made in October last year in writing. First, the Americans should say the facilities will not be functioning (i.e. no missiles will be lowered into silos) before the U.S. gets confirmation that Iran has acquired ballistic missiles capable of reaching Europe. Second, a radar to track missile launches must not be enabled to monitor targets in Russia. Third, Russian experts must be allowed to visit elements of a missile shield in the Czech Republic and Poland.
Presidents Putin and George W. Bush will be able to seal their agreements on missile defenses and sign a final joint document early in April - they are scheduled to meet at a NATO summit in Bucharest.
The U.S. administration is anxious that it should be a success. And so Washington, apart from concessions on missile defense, is prepared to make other compromises, too. One is not to step up NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine.
The White House believes that entry into NATO will remain a priority for the next American president, and so Georgia and Ukraine could be invited to join at the next summit. Bush now has more urgent matters to decide.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Russia gives Abkhazia access to Sochi Olympics preparations
Igor Smirnov, the leader of the self-proclaimed Transdnestr Republic, has agreed to negotiate with Moldova's President Vladimir Voronin, after Moscow pledged Transdnestr extensive financial and humanitarian aid as a sweetener.
Alexei Malashenko, an expert with the Carnegie Moscow Center, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that it was certainly not the moment for Russia to annoy Moldova, not when it was becoming closer to Moscow.
The expert dismissed the very possibility of the Kremlin recognizing one or more self-proclaimed republics: "Nothing of the kind will happen for certain. Had it not been for Kosovo, there would have been no fuss about recognition at all."
Malashenko said that the Russian government might use the distraction to get Abkhazia legitimately involved in some of the projects for the Sochi Olympics.
"However, when the upheaval triggered by the recent parliamentary hearings subsides, Georgia, too, could get its own piece of the Sochi pie. Maybe indirectly, through third parties, but Moscow will have to feed Georgia something because the Olympics is a sensitive business," the expert said.
Later Moscow will begin working on a compromise with Georgia. "I even have the impression that all the State Duma's demarches have been pre-arranged with Tbilisi," Malashenko suggested.
NATO's eastward expansion, which has certainly played a role in the noise surrounding the self-proclaimed states, is a process which can no longer be halted. What Moscow should do now is learn how to adapt to the new reality and how to respond to it. Moscow's current reaction is immature, suggesting that the Russian parliament is unaware of the global changes. "The Duma is a barking chorus, which provides the Kremlin with the soundtrack it wants, but it does not decide anything," the expert said.
Vedomosti
FSB expands foreign operations
The Russian Government has allowed the Federal Security Service (FSB) to conduct all operations stipulated by national legislation in the sphere of foreign currency regulation and control.
Ivan Khamenushko, a partner with the Pepeliaev, Goltsblat & Partners law firm, said federal agencies had the right to open foreign-bank accounts and to conduct other foreign-currency operations whenever necessary. A source in the Defense Ministry said the Ministry provided financial services to Russian troops abroad and paid pensions to retired officers in other countries, and that the Finance Ministry also had similar rights.
Although the FSB declined to comment on the issue, a source close to the main homeland security agency said it must be allowed to conduct foreign-currency operations in the context of the agency's expanded legal presence abroad.
The FSB requires legal funding due to expanded counter-terrorist exchange programs, joint exercises and additional specialized equipment purchases.
However, the FSB has the right to conduct illegal financial operations under national criminal investigation legislation, the source told the paper.
Foreign secret services also have their legal offices in Russia. Although the FBI has a Legal Attache office in Moscow, the U.S. Embassy declined to comment on its funding.
The government resolution highlights expanded FSB operations abroad, Andrei Soldatov, who runs the web site Agentura.ru and specializes in writing about Russia's powerful security services, told the paper.
He said the National Counter-Terrorism Committee employing part-time FSB operatives proposed two weeks ago that it be allowed to set up offices at Russian embassies abroad in order to protect Russian citizens in high-risk countries, and that this would require additional funding.
RBC Daily
'Russian Aggression' paranoia deliberately fueled in Europe - experts
The Czech government said Tuesday it was planning to augment the staff of its intelligence agency faced with a threat coming from Russia. Analysts are bewildered by Prague's decision to better protect its energy sector from possible encroachment by its main oil and gas supplier.
East-Europe's current hysteria over the alleged "Russian aggressors," coupled with the old psychological complexes generated by what they describe as "Soviet invasion" is no news. This time, however, convincing the Czech population of Russia's aggressive plans would greatly help push a series of unpopular projects, including the deployment of the U.S. missile tracking radar in the country.
The Czech intelligence staff will in fact only grow by several dozen agents, and it is unclear how this modest increment can help secure the country against the mythical "Eastern threat."
Moscow has always denied accusation of using an "energy baton" to pressure Europe; indeed, European nations can hardly find any fault with Russian energy companies, which always make good on their oil and gas contracts. Even though the idea of reducing their energy dependence of Russia by building bypass pipelines has been in the focus of many EU meetings and summits lately, European energy ministers have had no real reason to worry before now.
Experts point out the evident lack of logic in the Czech government's decision. "I do not see any connection at all between Russia's alleged 'flexing of energy muscles' and the growing activity of Czech intelligence services. It looks like someone is getting carried away with fancy," Zdzislaw Lachowski from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute told RBC Daily.
Moreover, Gazprom's contract with Transgas, the Czech fuels importer, has been signed until 2035, and Moscow has never pegged its energy deliveries to the republic on the Moscow and Prague's controversy over the U.S. radar.
"There is a kind of irrational paranoia in Eastern Europe, deliberately fuelled by rumors of Moscow's aggressiveness. The recent statement by the Czech government is aimed at kindling anti-Russian sentiment to make it easier to lobby certain projects the local public does not really understand, like for example the U.S. radar station," said Sergei Mikheyev, Deputy Director General of the Center of Political Technologies, a Moscow think tank.
Vremya Novostei
Central Asia resists long-term contracts with Gazprom
Although commercial talks between Gazprom, Turkmengaz, Uzbekneftgaz and Kazmunaigaz on next year's gas contracts have not yet started, the Central Asian companies are preparing to exploit their success.
A source in Kazakhstan's government said that "new export prices for Central Asian gas will be announced soon" and will be 60% to 70% higher than current ones. But the main point, according to the source, is that Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are planning to keep the practice of signing annual supply contracts and regularly reviewing prices.
Gazprom, which recently agreed to buy Central Asian gas from January 1, 2009 at European prices, faces additional spending. The corporation sees no sense in accepting the price demands of its Central Asian partners.
Without long-term delivery guarantees, Moscow will have constantly to fend off threats of Turkmen and Kazakh gas being rerouted to new export destinations, above all to the trans-Caspian gas pipeline, a project strongly lobbied by Brussels and Washington. A Gazprom spokesman yesterday declined to comment.
The Russian giant buys the total export of gas from Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan and most of Uzbekistan's - all told, 58-60 billion cubic meters per year. This year one thousand cubic meters of Turkmen gas is costing Gazprom an average of $140; Uzbek gas $145; and Kazakh gas $180. However, with some of the Kazakh gas coming from the Karachaganak deposit, Gazprom is able to regain its margin by offering refining services at Orenburg and participating in Kazrosgaz, the company that markets the gas.
Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, reporting the situation to President Vladimir Putin, said that purchases were made according to a price formula pegged to the cost of Russian gas in Europe. Gazprom, which accepted the new price conditions, expected to get long-term guarantees that it would be sold gas. But it looks as though the Central Asian suppliers do not want to abandon an alternative gas exporting route to Europe, and some long and hard bargaining seems to lie ahead.
Kommersant
Gazprom to conduct exploration on three fields in Bolivia
Russian gas giant Gazprom has signed an agreement with the Bolivian state-controlled company Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscalis Bolivianos (YPFB), receiving the opportunity to carry out geological prospecting on three natural gas blocks in Bolivia.
Gazprom thinks that small gas fields in Bolivia are its first step toward developing Bolivian deposits. However, analysts say that investors face high risks in that country because of the high costs of prospecting operations and the unstable political situation.
Gazprom has not revealed even the approximate amount of its investment in three blocks (Sunchal, Acero and Carohuaicho) in the Tarija province, but Stanislav Tsygankov, head of Gazprom's foreign relations department, said that billions of dollars were involved.
Back in the summer of 2006, YPFB president Jorge Alvarado said Gazprom planned to invest about $2 billion in the Bolivian gas sector. At that time, the Russian gas monopoly did not confirm this information, merely saying there were no concrete plans. Now Gazprom is showing interest in other areas apart from gas fields. A Gazprom source said the company was also considering oil production and power generation projects.
Analysts are skeptical over Gazprom's plans. Vitaly Kryukov, an analyst at the Kapital Investment Group, said that most deposits in that country are nearly depleted and of no interest.
"Perhaps Gazprom could be interested by promising mineral reserves in Bolivia, but for these, major investment in exploration will be needed. Also, the viability of developing these reserves seems doubtful because of their small number and high geological risks," the analyst says.
Add political risks to geological ones. On May 1, 2006, Bolivia's President Evo Morales declared the nationalization of the country's hydrocarbon resources. Gazprom is one of the first companies to come to that country after the nationalization.
However, a new conflict has started there - between the federal center and four provinces, including Tarija. The regions are dissatisfied with the new Bolivian Constitution and redistribution of receipts from hydrocarbons exports in favor of the federal budget.
However, in the opinion of Konstantin Cherepanov of the KIT Finance investment bank, Gazprom "knows what it is doing: the company has surely calculated potential risks." The analyst believes that Gazprom will not hasten to invest considerable funds into Bolivian projects and its activities in that country will depend on the effectiveness of its first project. If it proves profitable, Gazprom may start developing other energy resources in Bolivia and also building gas pipelines.
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