ESTONIA
Local journalists say that the Estonian authorities' uncompromising stance regarding the removal of the Bronze Soldier from downtown Tallinn in April 2007 was a mistake. "The waning support of the ruling Reform Party shows that the popularity it won by moving the Bronze Soldier has crumbled under the weight of everyday problems. As a result, Moscow has attained its goal: Estonia has been split by the ethnic problem." (Postimees, February 27).
Russian speakers and prominent Estonian politicians and businessmen are criticizing President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, who has recently told the BBC that he does not speak Russian because this would amount to recognition of the 50-year Soviet occupation of Estonia. "To follow this logic, nobody in Estonia should study German, Swedish or Danish. Ilves's statement is unworthy of president and statesman, because it has damaged Estonia domestically and internationally. Educated people in other countries will not understand him." (Eesti Paevaleht, February 28).
"Since the restoration of Estonia's independence, many Russian speakers have tried to find points of contact with Estonians, studying the Estonian language, culture and history. But such statements kill Russians' desire for cooperation. If the president regards all Russian speakers in Estonia as occupiers and uses this pretext to speak negatively about our native tongue, this can only be interpreted as an insult." (Delfi, February 27).
LATVIA
Political analysts are writing about the future of the Medvedev-Putin tandem. "Putin will lead in the tango with Medvedev, who will play the role of a technical president." (Majas Viesis, February 29).
"Medvedev has made a few bows to liberalism... We must stop seeing him as a 40-year-old boy. Russia will not have a two-headed eagle at the top, as the forces interested in this are too weak now." (Neatkariga Rita Avize, March 1).
"The exchange of seats between Putin and Medvedev has been presented as a guarantee of stability. But in fact it will disrupt stability, because a parallel operation of two centers of power is bound to provoke a conflict in Russia." (Diena, March 1).
Local publications believe that under Medvedev, too, the Baltic countries could become small change in the big geopolitical game between Russia and the West. "Seeing Medvedev as a liberal is wishful thinking. Medvedev has said unambiguously that Moscow's foreign policy will not change. He is prepared to fight against the independence of Kosovo, which the majority of the EU countries have recognized, and therefore his words about the new gas pipeline [South Stream] as the basis of Europe's future energy stability can be interpreted as a threat." (Diena, February 27).
LITHUANIA
Lithuanian experts compare Russia with corrupt Third World countries. "There were two key ways to amass billion-dollar wealth during the presidency of Vladimir Putin: loyalty to the regime even when it tried to rob you, and bribes. Dmitry Medvedev, considered as the successor of Putin, has recently admitted that bribes in Russia are frequently of astronomic proportions. Yet the system they support is very effective." (Lietuvos Rytas, March 1).
Some journalists cite examples from the past to prove that Lithuania should unite with Poland to become a "sanitary cordon" between Russia and Europe. "Most historians agree that Lithuania became a geopolitical hostage to Moscow between the first and second world wars, because Poland occupied Vilnius. Russia was in fact the only country to take its side at that time, which gave the Kremlin leverage against both countries. It pitted them against each other and eventually occupied both. A confederation of Poland and Lithuania, with the latter as a sanitary cordon restraining Russia's forays into Europe, is frequently presented as an alternative solution." (Veidas, February 29).
BELARUS
Local experts predict President Vladimir Putin's voluntary withdrawal from the country's public life as a most probable scenario. However, it is also possible that the "successor's team" will soon oust the current leader from active politics. "It is quite possible that Putin will no longer be Russia's prime minister two or three years from now, and will quit politics altogether. What is happening now could be a serious large scale takeover by the "new tsar." In this case, all the talk about political reform needed in Russia is no more then talk. On the other hand, Medvedev could simply walk out on Putin. But if he does, Russia will pay, too, including all of its political elite. Everyone will see it is still a game without rules." (Solidarnost, March 2).
Many publications view the change of leadership in the Kremlin as a mere formality and therefore point out the absence of any encouraging prospects in Russia-Belarus relations. "We cannot expect a change for the better in the Kremlin's relations with Belarus. The Kremlin is probably planning to gradually bend Belarus to submission... The concessions made to Alexander Lukashenko in the run-up to the elections will most likely be gradually cancelled, and the current government will be unable to secure economic privileges without fulfilling Russia's conditions. The issue of oil and gas prices will most probably come up soon, as well as the repayment of Belarus' outstanding loans, customs duties and quotas of Belarusian goods... It follows from the above that Belarus should revise its politics in favor of a more active rapprochement with Europe." (Khartiya 97, March 3).
UKRAINE
Many authors here point out the political bend of the conflict over Russian gas deliveries as well as the attempts by [Yulia] Tymoshenko's government to fuel nationalistic sentiment in society. "Russia's gas giant is bracing itself for a triumphant breakthrough into Ukraine's domestic gas market, endangering Ukraine's energy security and consequently, its sovereignty. Ukraine's leaders have proved unable to stick together at this crucial moment, thus enabling Moscow to play on our internal political controversy again ... They are playing 'suicide chess' with the Kremlin and Gazprom, while the country is shaken by national chauvinist fever... But radical nationalism in excess cannot compensate for an acute shortage of pragmatic state patriotism." (Den, March 2).
Experts forecast growing activity of Russian investors who are going to try to dominate the Ukrainian market. "Ukraine is in for an expansion of Russian businesses once the presidential election in Russia is over. During his eight years in office, President Putin's key goal set for him by the ruling class was to consolidate power, put together a strong state and built up its political clout. By now, the ruling class probably deems this goal fulfilled, which means it is time to go on to a liberal economic expansion." (Ukrainskaya Pravda, February 29).
MOLDOVA
The Moldovan national media are quite certain that Dmitry Medvedev will keep to the current policy, which means the Moldova-Transdnestr conflict is unlikely to be settled any time soon. "Moscow plans to perfect its instruments of pressure, which the authoritarian Kremlin regime is so adept at using - energy blackmail of European nations, economic pressure on countries which seek EU integration such as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, the ongoing propaganda war with the Baltics, religious expansionism in former Soviet republics, political expansion, the incessant flexing of its military arsenal, continued military presence in the CIS hot spots, Transdnestr included, and an admirable application of double standards." (Flux, March 4).
ARMENIA
The mass media again point out that Russia has refused to treat Nagorny Karabakh as a legal entity to which the Kosovo precedent can be applied. "An ally of Armenia, Russia, nevertheless, has been avoiding speaking of Nagorny Karabakh as a self-proclaimed republic of the former USSR to which the Kosovo precedent could be applied... This is quite understandable, because Russia wants to develop relations with Azerbaijan, the only oil-producing country in the South Caucasus (Iravunk, February 27)
The press has noted Moscow's reserved attitude to the political crisis in Armenia. Experts believe that the Kremlin does not want Armenia to use force, so the country's authorities have to look for other solutions. "Our sources close to the Armenian political elite say that official Moscow has not given the green light to the Armenian authorities' mass repressions. "If you want to do something, do it without much noise, and certainly without blood," - Vladimir Putin told Robert Kocharian in his Kremlin's office." (Iravunk, February 29).
GEORGIA
In spite of some reservations, Georgia feels positive about the new Russian president. "Mr Medvedev will have to take into account the anti-Georgian attitudes prevalent in Russia, and at some time he will have to reckon with the State Duma radicals." "It is no coincidence that Putin made his choice in favor of Medvedev, a liberal politician. This move speaks volumes for the West. Putin does not want the West to think of Russia as a country run by a dictator." (Rezonansi, March 1).
Analysts believe that Kremlin's seeming inactivity should not deceive anyone, because Moscow is holding all the aces in its hands and will play the Kosovo card without hesitation in the CIS territory when the right moment comes. "Russia is waiting for the development of the situation and if the events do not suit Moscow, it will make a move... Russia will keep a finger on Kiev and Tbilisi's political pulse and if these countries make a wrong move (in its opinion) it will play the Kosovo card. And before this, leaders of the separatist autonomies will send letters to the Russian government, the UN and other international organizations asking for recognition of their independence. This ritual can seem ineffective but it will remind the international community that these countries want to be independent. (Sakartvelos Respublica, February 27).
AZERBAIJAN
Observers believe that the Kosovo precedent may have a negative impact on the possibilities of a peaceful settlement of the "frozen conflicts" in the post-Soviet area. "In order to reach a peaceful settlement with the help of peacemakers the conflicting parties need to trust the international intermediaries. Kosovo's precedent only undermined the trust of the countries with separatist problems in international mediators... Naturally, the threat of the resumption of combat operations is growing." (Zerkalo, February 29).
Experts write that Russia may face problems with the construction of the South Stream pipeline - on the part of Ukraine, through which territory the pipeline will pass, and on the part of the Central Asian countries which are interested in higher gas prices. "Shelf owners can influence the terms of the project realization... The Central Asian partners will not like the situation when the lion's share of gas revenues goes to mediators like Gazprom instead of its producers." (Echo, March 1).
KAZAKHSTAN
Some experts believe that an important result of Russian presidential elections is overcoming the "orange revolutions" syndrome, and claim that Kazakhstan could benefit from such experience. "Russia has managed to overcome a worldwide trend of the last two-three years, namely, the opposition's discontent with election results and subsequent protests. Kazakhstan's political establishment will take on board this positive experience of ensuring the continuity of power and the political line. We will continue to analyze the 2008 Russian experience, some aspects of which could come in handy during elections in our country." (Liter.kz, March 4).
The press believes that a possible Democratic victory during U.S. presidential elections will bring Russia and Kazakhstan closer together. "A change of guard is taking place in the United States. A possible Democratic victory could positively influence our bilateral relations because Washington will begin to criticize the country's human-rights record and will try and interfere with Kazakh policies. Naturally, all this would bring Kazakhstan and Russia closer together." (Gazeta.kz, February 27).
KYRGYZSTAN
The media focused on an agreement between the Government of Kyrgyzstan and energy giant Gazprom to develop two national gas deposits. "Gazprom has undertaken to tap natural gas deposits and to solve a strategic problem facing Kyrgyzstan. Alexei Miller, the head of the Russian gas giant, has announced corporate plans to produce about 330 million cubic meters of gas per year in the republic. Kyrgyzstan is getting a real chance to improve its economic standing through cooperation with the largest Russian company." (Kabar, February 25.)
The press quotes Abdygany Shakirov, the head of a Kyrgyz public organization operating in Russia, as saying that native Russians are mostly irritated by the fact that Kyrgyz migrants lack sufficient knowledge of the Russian language and culture. "Somewhere between 150,000 and 200,000 Kyrgyz citizens now live and work in Moscow and the Moscow Region. These are mostly young seasonal workers who lack professional skills and do not have a good knowledge of Russian. Russian people tend to be irritated by the fact that the migrants do not understand Russian, do not know Russian laws, and do not share national moral and cultural values. (24.kg, March 3).
TURKMENISTAN
Turkmen analysts believe that Russian television has turned into a powerful brainwashing instrument. "Political processes in modern Russia are taking on intricate and sometimes frightening forms. Due to the depressions and frustrations of the last 17 years, ordinary Russians have become passive and prone to manipulation. Russian television is creating a new reality outside the realm of formal logic. It appears that the mass media are mostly trying to distract the people from 'class problems,' to create a manageable and easy-to-manipulate crowd. The television network has turned into a 'psychotropic weapon.' Positive spirituality, creative freedom and self-expression have given way to cheap show business tricks and openly decadent projects." (Turkmenskaya Iskra, March 1).
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