Will the change of president split the elite?

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Andrei Vavra) - The Kremlin is full of speculations about the possible reshuffles after Vladimir Putin's departure.

One version puts two high-rankers by the name of Igor in charge of the Presidential Executive Office - Shuvalov and Sechin. One (a liberal) will head it, and the other will be his deputy.

It is not clear who has spread this rumor. Both Igors are members of the president's team and performed well in the executive office, each with his own area of responsibility. But it is clear that they will never make a tandem.

I have quoted this example to show that a smooth change of power and a problem-free transition are more in the nature of dreams and wishful thinking. The political elite are a rather heterogeneous team, where Putin himself maintained the equilibrium and ensured the balance of interests. But even during his one-man rule, there were squabbles. The latest and the most notorious scandal broke out between the Federal Security Service and the Agency for Control over Drugs and Psychotropic Substances.

Dmitry Medvedev's nomination for president was interpreted as the victory of liberals in the Putin team. Does this mean that the "siloviki" (security, law-enforcement and defense agencies' leaders) have become weaker? What influence will this have on the afore-mentioned conflict? Whose side will Medvedev take? Will he act as a mediator or make personnel changes?

Not so long ago, everyone was trying to guess whom Putin would support as his successor. He has made his choice, but he could have picked someone else. His absolute power seems to demonstrate the strength and reliability of the established political system.

But transfer of power to a trustworthy successor will not preserve the status quo. It goes without saying that Medvedev is a member of the team and a like-minded associate. But as a person and politician, he is not at all identical to Putin. His entourage is different from Putin's team. Medvedev gets along with some members of Putin's entourage, and is not on good terms with others. Some supporters will be more loyal than others with all the ensuing consequences - personnel reshuffling.

To sum up, this change of president will not be a technicality. The change is bound to be accompanied by significant shifts.

Two strong centers are unusual for Russia. How will they divide power? What will happen with the power-wielding agencies? Will the new president keep them, or will they be controlled by the Prime Minister, that is, by Putin? If the "siloviki" return to the government, they will consolidate the prime minister's positions, and weaken the presidential power. Meanwhile, it is generally accepted that strong presidential power should be the backbone of the Russian political system.

But if the "siloviki" remain with the president (Medvedev), will he keep all of them in their positions? Even if he does for a while, they are not likely to be there until the end of his presidency, are they?

There are grounds to say that as a result, the positions of the "siloviki" in the Presidential Executive Office will weaken after March 2. This is bound to affect their status outside the executive office as well because relations in the ruling elite are not build formally. Isn't it easier to replace the weaker old "siloviki" with the new ones?

Power-wielding agencies have positions that are now sought by other candidates. Maybe, this is why the situation with the Security Council continues to be vague - it has long been headed by the acting secretary. This is an honored position for a high-ranking "silovik" because the Security Council coordinates the operation of all power-wielding agencies. This seems to be a high position. But the status of a man heading a hundred bureaucrats is incomparable with that of a man commanding hundreds of thousands of officers and men.

Here is one more question. The parliamentary elections last December were a referendum in Putin's support. The presidential elections will also become a referendum because there is only one real candidate. Formally, this will be a referendum in support of Putin, who has styled and promoted the nominee. What about de facto? Will this referendum be in support of the outgoing leader or the new president?

This gives food for thought to the regional bosses. During the elections, they have a substantial administrative resource that they can use cautiously and reasonably. But they can also go overboard in expressing love for the new big boss. After all, re-appointment of governors depends on the new president now, not on the old one.

Roughly speaking, regional high-rankers are on the horns of a dilemma - whom should they swear allegiance to?

As the presidential elections are approaching, we have forgotten about the "third term" party. Its members have been saying that "the best is the enemy of the good" and trying to persuade the president and public opinion to violate the Constitution. They did not succeed, but they have not disappeared - they still occupy key positions and are concerned about preserving their status quo, all the more so since a reshuffle at the top is inevitable.

Hence, the main question - will Putin manage to keep this struggle between clans at bay after he retires from his post?

Everyone curses the 1990s, but they provided some crucial experience of struggle within the government. In 1997, two oligarchic clans were fighting for the controlling share of the Svyazinvest telecommunications company. As a result, the struggle between the clans sharply exacerbated, and Anatoly Chubais, a very influential politician at the time, and his entire team had to leave the political scene.

Clever people had warned the warring parties not to commit suicide, but they did not listen. The government had to pay dearly for their struggle.

How serious is the threat to the government's stability during the current transitional period? If different clans follow their egocentric interests, they may seriously weaken the political structure that Putin has built over these years, and destroy the stability for which he is given credit.

Hopefully, Putin has created a clever political elite that will now have to pass a serious test in political maturity.

The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.

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