MOSCOW, December 26 (RIA Novosti) Russia calls for abandoning ideology in international relations / U.S. intelligence report on Iran only raises concern - expert / Russia willing to have OSCE observers monitor presidential elections / Communists look beyond their traditional voters / Russia is back to socialist window-dressing /Rosneft to benefit from sale of former Yukos asset
Vremya Novostei
Russia calls for abandoning ideology in international relations
The main goal of President Vladimir Putin's speech at the security conference in Munich last February was to highlight the need for mutual understanding and encourage partners to abandon Cold War stereotypes, according to which the West won and Russia lost, the Russian foreign minister writes in the Vremya Novostei daily.
Sergei Lavrov said some people had decided that everything would now be done according to Western plans and designs. Putin and other Russian leaders repeatedly called on their partners at confidential meetings to abandon this harmful ideology and all other types of ideology, and to pool efforts toward common goals instead.
According to the minister, this is a crucial condition for combating terrorism, drug trafficking, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, epidemics and poverty. These evils can be addressed only with the concerted efforts of all international players.
There cannot be unilateral solutions to the problems of Kosovo, Iran, Lebanon or the Middle East as a whole, Lavrov writes. Trying to present international cooperation as toeing the line of one partner can only complicate problems, not solve them.
Other important events of the past year were mainly generated by Putin's speech in Munich, the minister writes.
Russia has held many quiet consultations in a bid to convince its partners to ratify and honor the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE), he writes. But our arguments were disregarded. We had to take a different, more dramatic step in order to be heard at last.
The problem has taken off the ground but has not been solved yet, Lavrov writes. More efforts need to be taken, but at least Russia's partners have become aware of the problem. Russia took carefully calculated, although harsh steps, without closing the door to further talks.
In early July, President Putin advanced at the summit in Kennebunkport an unprecedented offer concerning the ABM system. In the past, Washington and Moscow only agreed to prevent mutual destruction, Lavrov writes.
Putin proposed a new approach based on mutual trust and complete openness of intelligence data acquired by all partners with the help of high-technology. This approach amounts to abandoning stereotypes and reaching a new, previously unthinkable level of partnership and cooperation.
Lavrov writes that Putin has set the goal, and mastered the political will needed to get rid of the remaining elements of the old mentality, but few people in the West appreciated it.
We still hope that the West will embrace this approach, although the chances are becoming remoter every day, the Russian foreign minister concludes.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
U.S. intelligence report on Iran only raises concern - expert
A closer look at the U.S. intelligence review saying that Iran suspended work on nuclear weapons in 2003, can only increase fears instead of lessening them, writes Vladimir Dvorkin, of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations.
To begin with, the report mentions no facts but engages in supposition and rumor. Of course, that may be explained by a desire to cover up sources of information, but there are many ways of masking such sources. So the report is more a wish to justify past mistakes [in Iraq] and avoid reproaches in the case of force being used against Iran.
Secondly, it shows that the Iranian authorities did fool the IAEA and world community by claiming their country was not attempting to develop nuclear weapons.
Thirdly, what does it mean by "suspending" the nuclear weapons program in Iran? Perhaps the program to make the basic components of such weapons, including missiles (air bombs), nose cones and the warhead itself had already been carried out?
Iran has the Shehab-3 missile for nuclear arms. It is equipped with a powerful engine of its own development, with its payload increased to 1,300 kilograms and a range of 1,500 kilometers. With a usual payload of 500 kilograms, the range of this class of missiles has been increased by 800 kilometers. And there are no obstacles to extending it.
The idea that such countries as North Korea and Iran can only have missiles modeled on Soviet Skad-type rockets is a mistaken one. In the late 1950s, the Soviet Union developed medium-range missiles with nuclear warheads capable of flying 2,000 kilometers and 5,000 kilometers.
It would be a dangerous delusion to consider that such technology is still unavailable for others.
There were no curbs or restrictions for many years on the development of the front section and warhead. Iran's research and design agencies faced no difficulties in addressing such problems.
Nor can it be ruled out that Iran already has some limited quantity of weapons-grade uranium, as is directly said in the American report. It could have been bought on the black market of nuclear technologies and materials, similar to the one established by Dr. Khan, the father of Pakistan's nuclear bomb.
Vedomosti
Russia willing to have OSCE observers monitor presidential elections
Russia's Central Election Commission (CEC) said in a letter to OSCE it would issue invitations to its observers to attend the March 2008 presidential elections, but sounded as though it would not like to have a long-term mission here.
It was a letter containing information, not an official invitation, said CEC member Igor Borisov. It was just to remind the observers to fill in their forms, as they may well receive their invitations after all the presidential hopefuls have been registered at the end of January. The OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) always seems annoyed at delays, so the letter was sent to its Warsaw headquarters immediately after registration, he said.
ODIHR refused to send observers to Russia for the December 2 parliamentary elections saying that the invitations came too late and the observers could not obtain their entry visas on time. ODIHR's Urdur Gunnarsdottir said he hoped this would not happen again.
Theoretically, OSCE observers can apply for Russian visas once they get the letter, Borisov said. However, he added, we believe that monitoring in Russia should begin after the registration of candidates is complete. As for other usual observation practices, such as mass media monitoring, they could be carried out from abroad just as well, using modern communications technologies, he said.
ODIHR usually initially deploys a needs assessment mission to assess the situation in the relevant country and determine the scale of any potential observation activity. Mr Gunnarsdottir is concerned that ODIHR might not be able to send a needs assessment mission to Russia on time.
In 2004, 336 OSCE observers monitored the presidential election process in Russia. Borisov has suggested 70 observers should come this time.
Kommersant
Communists look beyond their traditional voters
Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov will only be officially registered as a candidate for the 2008 presidential elections today. But yesterday a score of left-leaning public organizations had already expressed support for him. Zyuganov said his party was looking to expand its voter base in this presidential campaign.
He is not going to limit himself to "left support" alone. "The right, too, is going our way," he told Kommersant by pointing to the Russian Christian Social movement.
"There will be more," he promised, "including veteran organizations and trade unions," which he called "centrists."
On the one hand, analysts agree with the Communists. Recent polls by the Levada Center have shown that nearly 55% of Russians are for a state-planned economy, and less than 30% for a market one.
As many as 68% are for law and order even if democracy suffers and only 14% are for democracy to the detriment of order. On the whole, most Russians share traditional Communist values underlying all of the party's election programs.
But, on the other hand, the Russians have acknowledged "law and order" and "state interference in the economy" only thanks to the moves of the Putin administration.
"Zyuganov could gain 18%-20% of the vote in the first round," said Prof. Sergei Chernyakhovsky, of the International Ecological and Political University, who makes a study of the leftist opposition in Russia. But, to do so, "he must run his campaign most vigorously, without his usual sing-song incantations."
But the Communists cannot conduct such a campaign with such a candidate, said Yury Korgunyuk, of the Indem Foundation. The Russian Communist party, in his view, will not dare to venture beyond its traditional electorate "for fear of losing their votes, and will end up with 11%-12%."
Novye Izvestia
Russia is back to socialist window-dressing
The outcome of the December 2 parliamentary elections in Russia, when the pro-Kremlin United Russia party got 94%, 96% and even 99% of the vote in some regions, was ensured not so much by falsification as by pressure put on people, a prominent sociologist writes in the Novye Izvestia daily.
Lev Gudkov, head of the Levada pollster, writes than Russians were convinced they had no choice, and so they voted for the prospective winner although they do not pin their hopes and interests on United Russia.
The sociologist writes that opinions always differ in society, because different people think differently, depending on their status, education and culture.
The situation is abnormal when 70% of them support one party; it means that there are exceptional consolidation factors at play, Gudkov writes. This mainly happens in emergencies, such as wars and ethnic conflicts, or in a dictatorship.
Objectively, Russia cannot be described as a dictatorship, he writes, but it is certainly sliding back into the socialist era of window-dressing. Its multiparty system rose from the ruins of the former Communist regime, rather than from different political movements.
The current political parties in Russia are the successors of Soviet nomenklatura groups. They are not connected with political movements or the battle of ideas, and do not strive to represent the opinions of different social groups.
The stunning election results of United Russia are a symbolic demonstration of the people's loyalty to the powers-that-be, mainly to the president, Gudkov writes. They are also proof of excellent organization. One must not confuse the outwardly democratic form of the Russian elections with the real mechanisms of power.
Russians disappointed in the election process simply did not attend the elections. Democratic parties lost because pro-Western and liberal Russians do not believe in the possibility of their success.
According to the sociologist, the turnout was ensured mainly by people in the provinces, where senior and poorly educated residents of villages and small towns came to the polling stations en masse. They are still suffering from the aftereffects of the collapse of the old system of social insurance, and think that only the state can help them overcome the extended crisis.
The situation is paradoxical, Gudkov writes. The new Russian authorities overturned the old Soviet system, which dissatisfied the people, who nevertheless expect them to restore the old system of power. They have nobody else to pin their hopes on.
The probability of a second round at the March 2008 presidential elections is very small, the researcher writes. As many as 36% of Russians are prepared to support First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. This amounts to a half, or even more, of those who will come to the polling stations in March.
Gazeta.ru
Rosneft to benefit from sale of former Yukos asset
The Federal Anti-Monopoly Service of Russia has disclosed data on the two applications for the purchase of a 50% stake in Tomskneft, a former Yukos asset now owned by state-controlled oil major Rosneft. The potential buyer is Gazprom Neft, the oil-producing arm of Russian gas giant Gazprom. The role of Vnesheconombank (VEB) in the transaction is not yet clear. In any case, Rosneft will raise quite a lot from the sale of the former Yukos asset.
The participation of a Gazprom subsidiary in the division of Yukos assets had been expected from the start, with VEB being regarded by analysts only as a mediator.
"Back in July 2007, Rosneft reported a possible sale of part of those assets in order to reduce its debt burden," said Alexander Razuvayev, head of Sobinbank's market analysis department. "Besides, since the purchase of Tomskneft, Rosneft has recorded only half of its new asset's production in the total output, which also says a lot about its pre-sale preparations."
According to Razuvayev's forecasts, Gazprom Neft remains the most probable buyer. "Having enough money, the Gazprom subsidiary has attracted a $2.2 billion syndicated loan from a consortium of Western banks and also agreed with Gazprombank, a commercial bank of the gas sector and Gazprom's authorized bank, on a loan of 30 billion rubles ($1.21 billion). Large loans testify to the purchase of new assets, Tomskneft in particular," the analyst explained.
Analysts predict that Rosneft will sell a 50% stake in its asset for about $3.4 billion, and it will be a profitable deal for the seller. "The lot which included Tomskneft was auctioned off for $6.8 billion, and half of Tomskneft will be sold for half of that sum. However, Rosneft's main gain is that the lot included several other major enterprises, such as the East Siberian Oil and Gas Company and the Achinsk oil refinery. Thus, Rosneft paid $6.8 billion for a whole set of assets apart from Tomskneft," Razuvayev said.
Analysts say Tomskneft is a subcritical asset requiring big investments Rosneft would find it difficult to make now. On the other hand, Gazprom Neft, with its low rates of oil production growth, will have a powerful company capable of rectifying the situation.
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