MOSCOW, October 2 (RIA Novosti) Putin to remain in power/ Putin can ensure United Russia parliamentary majority/ Gazprom to choose one more Shtokman partner in October/ Potanin, Prokhorov to split assets/ Russia to build space center in Indonesia
Vedomosti
Putin to remain in power
Russian President Vladimir Putin has agreed to head the election list of United Russia in order to add political meaning to the pro-Kremlin party, which mostly relies on administrative resources.
The decision can be considered a step towards Putin's strategic goal of making Russia a democratic country.
So far, the president has been the only effective instrument in Russia. The party of power and parliament, in which it has the majority, mainly broadcast the president's wishes in the form of laws. Now that Putin has become the "face" of United Russia (although without carrying its membership card), he will also give a boost to public politics in the country.
Putin also said he could become prime minister in 2008, which formally settles the issue of a third presidential term. On the other hand, he may create a precedent by becoming the first influential politician to remain in politics, and the first man in Russia to agree to become prime minister again.
The problem, though, is that the only public politician in Russia is Putin. He never quarrels with or opposes anyone, and never tries to prove anything to anyone in public. Putin unveils his plans to the people gradually and at the time of his own choosing. So, the only person he can compete with is Putin.
The president has again demonstrated his talent for changing the political system without amending the Constitution.
The public welcomes the idea of his "leaving to stay." According to the VTsIOM pollster, 65% of Russians advocate amendments to the Constitution to allow the president to keep his post (compared with 24% who are against the idea).
Another pollster, Levada Center, reports that 63% of the respondents are sorry Putin is leaving the top position in the country (against 35% who are not).
The investment community will be happy with Putin's decision to become prime minister, although analysts could say this will benefit Russia in the short and medium terms, but is running the risk of [excessive] power concentration in the longer term.
Putin does not intend to become the Russian Deng Xiaoping, who preserved his political influence even after he had left key posts in China. Deng's story is unique. Much more often, popular leaders in countries without a developed open and competitive political system try to keep their posts as long as their health and the situation permit.
Russia is unlikely to emulate any of the available Soviet, Kazakh, Indonesian or Korean scenarios. It will play according to its own script, but the director will try to keep the baton.
Gazeta.ru, Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Putin can ensure United Russia parliamentary majority
President Vladimir Putin's decision to head the pro-Kremlin United Russia party list has dramatically changed the State Duma election campaign currently underway.
Experts say the move has virtually put out of reach all the other parties' chances of getting into the lower house in December.
Even though the president's decision had been kept secret, a United Russia source said the Kremlin had made it a week ago and mentioned Vladislav Surkov, deputy head of the Presidential Executive Office, as the person behind the idea.
"It is a triumph for Surkov, he has been cherishing the idea for a while. Only the Communists are likely to get Duma seats now," the source said.
Dmitry Oreshkin, head of the Mercator think tank, rather thinks Putin agreed because he had to. "It is a certain risk for the president," he said. "A recent public opinion survey has shown a dwindling voter interest in United Russia. Its leaders in fact made a knight's move, using the head of state as a celebrity to draw more public attention to the party."
Vyacheslav Nikonov, head of the Moscow-based think tank Polity, quite expects United Russia to target two thirds of the lower house seats this December, now that the president himself is on top of their list.
"Putin's decision puts United Russia's rivals in a predicament. Only the Communists will still stand a chance of getting in the Duma. As for Just Russia and the LDPR, they will even have a problem overcoming the 7% eligibility barrier," the political scientist said.
Boris Makarenko, deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies, another Moscow think tank, said he was concerned over the political regime Russia would have in 2012.
"Russia's political order will change no doubt, regardless of the post Putin takes after the election. He could become prime minister, or he could lead a parliamentary majority. Both positions are important, and provide certain prerogatives. The question is what kind of political regime will Russia have.
"For instance, a president elected in 2008 will go in 2012. Who will replace him? If Putin, it would mean we are back to a presidential republic. In any case, we'll soon have a system with two very powerful leaders - the president, highly legitimate and elected by a general voting, and Putin, with his personal clout, whether he is prime minister or a parliamentary majority leader, although, such systems are usually unstable," the expert concluded.
Kommersant, Gazeta.ru
Gazprom to choose one more Shtokman partner in October
Norway's StatoilHydro, the united company formed through the merger of oil and gas assets of Statoil and Norsk Hydro, appeared on the stock exchange yesterday.
The two partners believe the consolidation of their assets should increase their chance of participating in Russia's Shtokman gas condensate deposit in the Barents Sea.
Russian energy giant Gazprom is expected to choose the new partner for the project in October.
Since the Norwegian government holds stakes in both companies, it also has 62.5% of shares in the united company, StatoilHydro, whose capitalization after the first day of trading totaled $73 billion. It may surge ahead of Shell to become the world's largest oil and gas company working on offshore projects. StatoilHydro will operate in 40 countries.
Statoil and Hydro aspired for participation in the first stage of the Shtokman project. Last week, Norsk Hydro CEO Eivind Reiten said the united company would have a better chance with Gazprom.
We now have a stronger negotiating position and a better chance, because we will negotiate on behalf of a united company, rather than as rivals, he said.
Gazprom's current partner in the Shtokman project is France's Total, which holds a 25% stake in the project operator of the first stage. The Russian company said it might grant another 24% in the project to one or several more foreign investors. StatoilHydro's rival will be U.S. ConocoPhillips.
Analysts believe, though, that the Norwegian company's experience of offshore operations is a major advantage, especially because Russia does not have its own technology for developing such projects like Shtokman.
Alexander Razuvayev, head of market analysis at Sobinbank, said: "Cooperation with the Norwegian company will allow Gazprom to slash investment expenses and gain access to [requisite] technologies."
Norway's company stands a better chance also because the government owns a controlling stake in it, and so Gazprom, which is also a state-controlled company, will find it easier to talk with StatoilHydro.
Business & Financial Markets
Potanin, Prokhorov to split assets
The business oligarchs Vladimir Potanin and Mikhail Prokhorov have reached a decision how to manage their joint assets worth an estimated $30 billion in the future.
Both men, who announced an asset split at the start of this year, decided that Potanin would buy 100% of the shares in the holding company Interros from KM Invest, a fund which holds the investments of Potanin and Prokhorov, Interros and the private investment Onexim Group said in a joint statement.
KM Invest holds investments with a market value of around $11 billion, including an 8% stake in metallurgical giant Norilsk Nickel, 7.6% in Polyus Gold, the largest national gold producer, 69% of Rosbank, one of the five largest Russian private banks, 55.6% of Open Investments, a company consolidating real estate assets and transactions, 100% of Profmedia, a leading national publisher, 100% of Interros Estate, 98.1% of Roza Khutor, a company building a ski resort in Sochi on the Black Sea coast, 87.7% of Soglasiye insurance company and 25.8% of Rusia Petroleum consortium.
Prokhorov, who will only sell off 4% stakes in Norilsk Nickel and Polyus Gold controlled by him through Interros, still has a 22% stake in Norilsk Nickel and owns 22% of Polyus Gold shares.
Potanin initially planned to acquire 70% stakes in Norilsk Nickel and Polyus Gold and to manage the rest, while Prokhorov was expected to take over an energy company. Under an amicable agreement, all other assets were to have been split fifty-fifty.
However, it became obvious this spring that the split would not go ahead in line with long-time informal agreements used for managing joint assets.
Analysts said Prokhorov, who controls Onexim Group, could now appoint three representatives to the Norilsk Nickel board where he previously had none, but that he was not ready to sell off his stake in the metallurgical giant.
At any rate, Prokhorov now can make new demands because Potanin has not yet received an offer to sell his Norilsk Nickel and Polyus Gold shares.
Izvestia
Russia to build space center in Indonesia
Russia and Indonesia recently agreed all the technical aspects to build Moscow's third foreign space center on Biak Island located in the Cenderawasih Bay near the northern coast of Papua, an Indonesian province.
Jakarta has already invested $25 million into the project, and Moscow is offering a unique low-cost air-launch concept.
A conventional rocket burns up two-thirds of its fuel before orbiting a payload. However, an Antonov An-124 Condor heavy-lift transport airplane can help solve this problem by launching a converted inter-continental ballistic missile and its satellite at an altitude of 10 km.
This tandem can place 800-900-kg satellites into geostationary orbits and four-ton spacecraft into parking orbits and will provide launch services for countries lacking permanent space centers.
Analysts said over 600 multirole satellites had to be launched in the next 10 years. Anatoly Karpov, CEO of aerospace corporation Air Launch, said the new system did not require huge ground facilities and expensive infrastructure.
He said the above-mentioned ICBM was being used extensively, that its NK-33 engines had been streamlined completely, and that the United States had bought a production license from Russia.
Karpov said two production rocket-booster versions and second-stage engines were available, and that the digital flight control system was already being used on Soyuz-2 launch vehicles.
According to Karpov, the system will be quite competitive on the global launch-services market because it features ready-made components.
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