MOSCOW. (Marianna Belenkaya for RIA Novosti)
On Tuesday, September 25, the process of electing a president is due to start in Lebanon.
If it were any other country, it would be possible to talk about elections or at least their first round, but in Lebanon this is essentially a process, the final result of which is unknown. Be that as it may, if the Lebanese do not get a new president, the country is not likely to get out of a political crisis - for mote than a year now the operation of its parliament and government has been virtually paralyzed by the discord between the opposition and parliamentary majority.
The term of the current President Emile Lahoud expires on November 24. In line with the Constitution, parliament has two months to elect his successor. Under the plan, the procedure will begin on September 25. To be elected to the position of the head of state, the nominee (who is certain to be a Maronite) has to receive two thirds of the votes in parliament in the first round or a simple majority later on. But for the time being, it doesn't even make sense for the deputies to discuss the candidacy of the future president or the new date for the start of the election procedures. The party leaders should first come to terms with each other.
There is no unanimity on the presidential nominee between the parliamentary majority represented by the March 14 Movement, the opposition (the Shiite Hezbollah and Amal) and the Christian Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). The domestic situation is so tense that the voting without preliminary agreement on the nominee may plunge the country into a civil war, as the opposition leaders have already warned.
The opposition's candidate to the presidential position is FPM leader, General Michel Aoun. The March 14 Movement is still choosing between three candidates. The question is which of them will suit the opposition and how to persuade Aoun to give up his nomination. The parliamentary majority is not likely to accept him because of his surprise alliance with Hezbollah, which they associate with Syria.
The presidential nominee in Lebanon should be a compromise figure not only for the Lebanese but also for Damascus and Tehran on the one hand, and Washington and Paris on the other. Although all outside forces are feigning the impression that the presidential elections are a home affair of the Lebanese, this is far from reality.
It is no accident that after the session of the Quartet (international go-betweens in the Mid-Eastern settlement - Russia, the United States, the European Union and the United Nations), Russian Acting Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov urged the world community to stay out of the Lebanese affairs.
"If nobody intervenes in Lebanon, the Lebanese will manage to come to terms and get out of the current crisis," he said.
Ten days before this statement, his deputy Alexander Saltanov made this statement after the talks in Beirut: "Regrettably, there is still a lot of mistrust among the Lebanese. This is one of the reasons why they haven't yet started searching for consensus."
This is quite an open statement for the usually reserved diplomat.
Saltanov added: "The solutions which are being imposed on Lebanon by different sides do not meet its national interests."
Moscow believes that domestic dialogue is the only road which will help the Lebanese get out of the predicament.
But there is little hope that the Lebanese will be left in peace. It is enough to mention last week's act of terror in Beirut, which killed deputy Antoine Ghanem, a spokesman for the parliamentary majority and the Lebanese Maronite community.
The Lebanese media wrote that he tried to establish contacts inside the Maronite community, which is split by party affiliation. It doesn't matter much what the reason was, because the terrorists have reached their goal - to bring the tense situation to the boiling point. All Lebanese policymakers are living in a kind of a besieged fortress - eight assassinations in two and a half years.
This gloomy picture is supplemented by periodic clashes between the supporters of the opposition and the parliamentary majority, a tent camp of the opposition in the city's center and barbed wire around government buildings. The country is obviously on the brinkmanship of a civil war.
The meeting of the party leaders will be a big achievement. For almost a year now they have been exchanging replicas and accusations through the press and refusing to engage in direct talks. An optimistic view is only based on statements by both sides about their readiness to come to terms. Up until now, they have been unable to do this, and there is little time left - two months to the "point of no return." The countdown has started.
Marianna Belenkaya is a commentator for the Russia Today TV Channel in Arabic.
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
