They believed that Putin had already made his choice - Sergei Ivanov, the current first deputy prime minister. The other first deputy prime minister - Dmitry Medvedev, retained some chances as well. Well-known figures from the president's closest entourage formed the second echelon of successors.
The analysts expected that Putin would transfer power under the same pattern as he once received it when Boris Yeltsin appointed him as prime minister and later on he was elected president. They thought that Ivanov would follow in Putin's footsteps. Therefore, they reasoned, the new prime minister was Putin's nominee for the presidential position.
But I don't remember a single case when someone would guess any Putin's appointment. No predictions were made about the new prime minister this time, either. Nothing was said about his role in the future election campaign.
Viktor Zubkov, head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service, has crashed on fiscal crime and has achieved a lot in the last few years. At one time he was Putin's subordinate in St. Petersburg Mayor's Office, and still remains one of his confidants.
Former Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov has left with all possible honors - he was awarded an order For Services to the Fatherland, First Class, which is conferred in Russia on presidents and geniuses of science and arts.
Will Zubkov be Russia's next president?
Until this day, Zubkov kept a low profile. He practically stayed away from the TV screen and was not even mentioned in any ratings or sociological polls. For voters, he is a total enigma. It is clear that Zubkov is from Putin's team and given the president's confidence ratings, his support carries a lot of weight (many voters are ready to back Putin's choice in March 2008). Moreover, Zubkov is in a position to put things in order. He could launch large-scale struggle against corruption to the enthusiastic support of the population. But there is too little time left - only three months to go before the presidential elections...
But what if Putin is placing his bets on someone else? What if Zubkov remains the prime minister, whereas the real successor has not yet been named? In this case, the president simply wants to have a more united team of soul mates whom he can trust without any reservations.
On Friday, September 14, the State Duma endorsed Zubkov's appointment in line with the Constitution. What next? What will happen with the expected successors who were daily shown on the TV screen (a very important indicator of changes at the top)? Will they recede into the shadow, vacating space for the new prime minister who has to be turned into a familiar face there and then? And what if nothing happens except for a new face? What will this mean?
In brief, by putting a dark horse at the head of the government, Putin has made the pre-election situation even more confusing.
Importantly, on September 15, Viktor Zubkov will be 66 years old. If he is elected president in 2008, in 2012 he will be 70 - too old to run for another term by the Russian Constitution... Is this the answer to his surprise appointment?
The opinions expressed in this article are the author's and do not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
