MOSCOW, July 6 (RIA Novosti) Putin will still be in control of Russia in 2014 - experts/ Soon Russia will seek parity not with U.S. but with China/ Venezuela to buy new Russian submarines/ Russian carmakers are losing the fight for the market
Gazeta.ru
Putin will still be in control of Russia in 2014 - experts
President Vladimir Putin believes he will still be in control of Russia in 2014, when the Winter Games are held in Sochi, a resort city on the Black Sea. According to experts, the battle waged by the president and his team for the right to host the 2014 Olympics shows that Putin will not move far from power in 2008.
Alexei Mukhin, director general of the Center for Political Information, said: "When Putin said in Guatemala, 'We will be happy to see you in Sochi in 2014', that slip of the tongue added intrigue to the proceedings. He will leave office in 2008 as promised, but he will most likely hold some other presidential position. He has very strong instincts for power, and he will not want to leave politics."
Alexei Makarkin, deputy head of the Center for Political Technologies, said: "Everyone knows that Vladimir Putin will not leave in 2008; at least he will not leave power."
Dmitry Oreshkin, head of the Merkator Group, said: "Sochi's victory is not important for Putin's future, who had said he will find a place on the team, hinting that he would not leave politics. He would be unable to leave even if he wanted to. The team standing behind him does not want to leave, and will not leave power.
"As for Putin, although he will cede power to a successor soon, he will still consider himself a patriarch, the man who controls the country even though he does not wear presidential stripes. In a word, we have received yet more proof that he is not contemplating leaving politics. He never has, as the stubborn fight for the right to hold the 2014 Olympics showed."
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Soon Russia will seek parity not with U.S. but with China
After Putin's recent proposal to President George W. Bush to jointly use the Gabala radar, writes Alexander Khramchikhin, head of analysis at the Institute for Political and Military Analysis, it seemed the Russian president had driven his colleague into a blind alley, and the man was faced with the difficult choice of whether to refuse or agree. But the United States made a strong countermove, driving Russia into a tight corner. Washington proposed further cuts in strategic offensive weapons. Now Moscow is facing a hard choice of whether to agree or not.
Today, despite much talk of reviving its former might, Russia's strategic nuclear forces are being massively scaled down, and this is unconnected with any treaties with the United States. It is therefore very tempting to persuade America to drop to Russia's level.
But to agree to that is even more difficult. If Russia lost its strategic nuclear forces, it would no longer be a great power, but a vast territory with huge resources sought by everyone. A further reduction of these forces, when nuclear weapons are spreading across the globe, is unacceptable for security reasons. A treaty would legally seal a reduction without allowing the country to restore its strength, even if it had the political will to do so - money it has.
The U.S. can reduce its nuclear arsenal painlessly. It is investing heavily in high-precision weapons and missile defense. So if the Russian strategic forces hit the floor, the U.S. would be able to deal them a knockout (most likely non-nuclear) blow, while the rest would be destroyed by a missile defense system (from American territory, not Poland).
On top of all else, and far worse, should further cuts be made and formalized, the Russian nuclear forces would become comparable to the Chinese forces, which are bound by no treaties and continue to grow. Moreover, even if just one warhead hits America, this would mean unacceptable losses, whereas China can absorb dozens of them. And this at a time when the resource squeeze (primarily oil) is taking on the proportions of a national catastrophe in China. If, however, China overtakes Russia in nuclear forces, too, it will talk to Moscow differently. And Russia would not be able to refuse it, unlike the United States.
Izvestia
Venezuela to buy new Russian submarines
Russia and Venezuela signed a contract for the delivery of five brand-new Project 877 Varshavyanka (NATO code name, Kilo) diesel-powered submarines to Caracas during Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez's recent visit to Moscow.
Chavez plans to buy four more submarines at a previously agreed price. Sources in Venezuela said the entire contract could be worth $3 billion, while Russian experts estimated the deal at just $1 billion.
It appears that the $3 billion sum is closer to the mark because Russia will also have to build a submarine maintenance base in Venezuela, supply weapons and components, and train crews.
A source close to Rosoboronexport, the largest national state-controlled arms exporter, said there were plans to build three submarines in St. Petersburg and two in the Russia's Far East, and that the shipyards were already preparing to lay their keels.
Experts said the appearance of these "silent killers" in the Caribbean would seriously alter the regional balance of power.
The relatively small Kilo-class submarines feature up-to-date Club-S cruise missiles, homing torpedoes, as well as active and passive target-acquisition systems, and have a range of 7,500 nautical miles.
No other country has similar submarines, whose missiles and torpedoes are launched through bow-section torpedo tubes.
Unlike older diesel-powered submarines, they do not have to surface in order to recharge their batteries because a unique propulsion unit helps operate diesel engines underwater.
The single-screw Kilo-class submarines are among the most silent in the world because the screw rotates more slowly; and all equipment has special noise-reduction systems.
Previously, Russian submarines were easier to detect because they had two screws.
Vedomosti
Russian carmakers are losing the fight for the market
According to data from PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the world's largest audit company, there was a record 23% drop in Russian automobile sales in the first half of this year. For the first time, Russians spent less on Russian cars than on foreign cars assembled in Russia.
Experts claim that next year new assembly lines will catch up with the old auto works in terms of automobile sales. The future of the Russian automotive industry is now in the hands of foreign car manufacturers.
According to results from the first six months of the year, the share of new foreign cars in automobile sales reached 78% in money terms, said Stanley Root, a PwC partner. Since the start of this year, Russian auto concerns have lost 7% of the market in money terms, registering a drop in sales by 86,000 cars from the first half of 2006. This is the worst performance by the national car industry in Russia's recent history, the expert said.
He explains the failure, mainly, by the narrowing price gap between Russian Lada and Volga cars and foreign vehicles assembled in Russia. Russian auto makers will be forced to raise their prices in the future too, because cars will have to comply with the Euro-3 standards meaning their market share will continue to shrink, Stanley Root summed up.
Meanwhile, sales of foreign cars assembled in Russia doubled over the first six months of the year registering a 75% increase in money terms. For the first time, Russians paid more for foreign than Russian cars: $2.8 billion against $2.4 billion according to the PwC data.
In the opinion of Ivan Bonchev, an expert on the automotive industry with Ernst & Young, next year sales of foreign cars assembled in Russia could overtake those of Russian cars in quantitative terms, too. According to his forecast, about 450,000 foreign cars will be assembled in Russia this year.
The number of new models is also increasing: at least five new auto works will be added to the existing ones: Toyota, Nissan and GM are building new facilities near St. Petersburg, Volkswagen in the Kaluga Region, and Suzuki intend to start construction in 2008. The next to come are Peugeot-Citroen, which is choosing a construction site, and China's Great Wall, which is negotiating a commercial car assembly plant. The auto works Avtotor in Kaliningrad, Izhavto in Izhevsk, and Severstal Auto in Yelabuga are also ready to assemble new models of foreign cars.
According to Stanley Root's data, five Chinese auto concerns, apart from Great Wall, i.e., Faw, Lifan, Venture Corp, Geely, and Chery, are planning to relocate their production viewing Russia as a springboard for access to the world market.
In three years they will be able to assemble a total of 500,000 cars a year. By 2010, Russian plants may produce up to 2 million foreign-brand cars, Stanley Root noted. Bonchev thinks the figure of 1 million is more realistic.
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