ESTONIA
The Kremlin is afraid that an "orange revolution" will take place in Russia - this is how observers interpret the country's efforts to suppress the opposition. At the same time the West should not pursue a policy of trying to divide Russia, because that may lead to nationalists gaining power. "Already Russia is showing signs of what could be called 'orange' nationalism. Until recently Western political experts considered a break-up of Russia to be a possible if distant prospect. Now it can be said with full certainty that this plan has been finally and utterly shelved. This is because there is the threat that should this happen, nuclear weapons might get into radical nationalist hands, and the consequences would be unpredictable" (Maaleht, June 29).
The media emphasize that Russian investors continue to trade on the Estonian market in spite of the sharp worsening of relations between the two countries after a monument to Soviet soldiers was moved to a new location in April. "Moscow companies are not going to shut down their operations in Estonia even in the wake of the April events. Businessmen are investing hundreds of millions of krooni in property and buying commercial space in Estonia" (Aripaev, June 29).
LATVIA
Moscow's refusal to ratify the border treaty with Latvia may allow the Kremlin to make further complaints against Riga, above all on the rights of Russian speakers, observers say. "Until now Russian officials have been saying that the State Duma will ratify the treaty this summer... Russia wants the Latvian side to clarify what kind of relations it thinks the two countries should have" (Latvijas Avize, June 28). "The postponement of ratification can be seen as the end of a short-lived thaw...In December, Russia will elect a new State Duma, and the border treaty will give Russians many opportunities...for singing national-patriotic songs and fist-waving...Citizenship for Russian speakers is unlikely to be the only condition for ratification...Russia would like Latvia to forget that it is a member of both NATO and the EU" (Diena, June 29).
LITHUANIA
The law on the construction of a nuclear power plant passed by the Seimas (Lithuania's parliament) was a historic decision, the media say, because it will allow Vilnius to resist Moscow's energy pressure. "Like the oil terminal at Butinga, the new nuclear project will make Lithuania independent of Russian oil and gas imports, which have been growing in recent years and, with the closure of the second unit at the Ignalina nuclear plant, will need to be increased further. By voting for the law, the Seimas voted against Lithuania being an energy province fully dependent on the East's resources and the West's favors" (Lietuvos Rytas, June 30).
BELARUS
Observers point to Moscow's obvious desire to take advantage of the republic's economic plight. "The main snag is that in exchange for a loan, Moscow is demanding privatization of the juicier bits of Belarusian industry...The Kremlin is sure that Belarus has been backed into a corner, and so it is not going to soften its position. Moscow believes that this time it can press home its advantage and make Lukashenko agree to Russia's terms" (Solidarnost, July 2).
UKRAINE
According to the media, the authorities do not grasp the full implications of the Kremlin's expansionist energy plans, which will strip Ukraine of all its advantages as a transit country. Also, the media warn that the build-up of Moscow's energy presence in Europe will result in Kiev losing its ability to appeal to European arbitrators in future gas conflicts with Russia. "The new gas pipeline project [South Stream-2] launched by ENI and Gazprom might satisfy Europe's growing hunger for gas, but it could also tighten the Russian company's control over direct energy supplies to Europe. The deal has far-reaching implications...Russia is openly betting on Italy in its European strategy. The Italians, unfazed by certain aspects of its 'totalitarian regime,' are unscrupulously kissing up to Russia" (Oligarkh.net, July 3).
MOLDOVA
The press accuses Russia of politically manipulating Moldova and playing the "Moldovan trump card" in a confrontation with the United States. "Certain members of the Moldovan parliament say they know now what we will have to pay [for Russia to lift all limits on Moldovan wine import]. They allege that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin and [Moldovan President Vladimir] Voronin have agreed to extend the Russian military presence in Transdnestr...But if Moldova puts up with Russian troops stationed there, the United States will have to ratify the CFE [Conventional Armed Forces in Europe] Treaty. Either the U.S. gives up its plans for ABM deployment in Europe, or Russia will be fully within its rights to slam the door on the CFE...That is how a small country can become a key player in global politics" (PRESS Obozreniye, June 29).
ARMENIA
The media believe that the Russian authorities will never put up with even the idea of independence for Kosovo. "The United States and the European Union have postponed the Kosovo independence program for another 4 months in the hope that this will give them enough time to come to terms with Russia. As we know, Moscow opposes the idea...But why? To all appearances, Russia opposes the very idea of independence...Even a quick glance at history proves that Russia cannot support independence, while we, the simple ones, pin our hopes on Russia, and believe that it will help us win independence for Karabakh" (Aikakan Zhamanak, June 27).
Despite all that, experts realize that Armenia will never find another ally like Russia. "Russia under Putin encourages [Armenia's] authoritarian regime to strengthen its grip on this country. In the economy, Russia promotes the development of a clannish oligarch system as a substitute for the free market. [Armenian President Robert] Kocharian enjoys following in his Big Brother's footsteps, controlling the airwaves and establishing puppet political parties. On the other hand, we cannot sever our alliance with Russia just yet -there is no alternative today to maintaining a strategic partnership with it" (Aravot, June 29).
AZERBAIJAN
The recent summit of GUAM (an alliance between Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova) is the talk of the town in Baku, the Azerbaijani capital. Political analysts have concluded that Azerbaijan and the other GUAM members must become full-fledged partners of Russia. "Membership of the European Union, not of GUAM itself ...is the GUAM countries' final goal, which means that it is a transitional entity spearheaded against growing Russian political influence. But that is a hopelessly outdated goal because Russia is no superpower. Today, it is merely a strong country that must be reckoned with...It is absolutely pointless for the GUAM countries to compete with Russia...We must cooperate and increase contacts with it, and tap into the boundless Russian market" (Zerkalo, June 28).
KAZAKHSTAN
The mass media believe that Russia's and the United States' differing attitudes to Iran are among the major sources of disagreement between the two countries. "Iran is not only the biggest irritant in Russia's relations with the United States but also an important lever for pressuring Washington. Unlike Russia, which has direct ties with practically all the key players in Iran, the United States has almost no direct contacts with Iranian leaders. Relations between Moscow and Washington will sour by this autumn in all key aspects of international politics, especially in matters concerning Iran. That is when the Russian president may visit Iran for a heart-to-heart talk with [Iranian] President Ahmadinejad in his own interests and to revive contacts between Moscow and Washington" (Delovaya Nedelya, June 29).
UZBEKISTAN
Journalists are analyzing a development strategy drawn up by Russia's Economic Development and Trade Ministry, according to which more than half of the Russian population will enjoy middle-class living standards by 2020. The media agree with the forecast as a whole, but they point out that the Russian population will shrink, so this figure will be the result not so much of successful efforts against poverty as of a rapid natural decrease in the low-income population. "It is too early for them to start bragging. True, the average monthly wage in Moscow will soon hit the $1,000 mark, but this sum barely suffices to keep body and soul together in the Russian capital...The decrease in the able-bodied population will push wages up. The economy must grow, according to the strategy's scenario for innovation, but a labor shortage will appear with the population shrinkage...The survivors, however, will be better-off" (Vesti.uz, June 27).
KYRGYZSTAN
The media are focusing on the authorities' attempts to settle the Kyrgyz unemployment problem at Russia's expense. "Unemployment grew by a factor of 500 between 1991 and 2005. The unemployed are a group at risk, and many political forces are taking advantage of them. Some Kyrgyz leaders are attempting to cope with the problem by sending the able-bodied unemployed abroad-suffice it to mention an agreement with [Russia's] Penza Region envisaging 100,000 jobs for Kyrgyz nationals" (Obshchestvenny Reiting, June 28).
TURKMENISTAN
The Turkmen government's postponement of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Naryshkin's visit to Ashgabad, the country's capital, is seen by some media as the first sign of a chill in relations between the two countries. Experts put this down to President Gurbanguly Berdymukhammedov's possible re-orientation towards Western investors. "Berdymukhammedov seems to have decided to reconsider his decision on this deal [the Caspian pipeline project], probably for fear that Ashgabad will not get its fair share under the current agreement...Berdymukhammedov met with U.S. Admiral William Fallon in Ashgabad on June 21. During the talks, the president of Turkmenistan spoke out in favor of his country's participation in the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline project. The Trans-Caspian route is viewed as an alternative to the Caspian pipeline and would bypass Russia, dealing a devastating blow to the Kremlin's energy policy in the region" (Gundogar, June 27).
TAJIKISTAN
Newspapers are analyzing the prospects for Russia's economic presence in Central Asia. Recalling China's expansion and Beijing's intention to develop business ties with the countries in Central Asia, the media do not rule out a future conflict between Russian and Chinese interests in the region. "In general, trade between China and Central Asia is growing faster than trade between Russia and Central Asia. In 1992-2006, trade between the Central Asian countries and Russia increased by 2.3 times, while trade between Central Asia and China rose by 25.6 times...Though Russia and China are clearly moving closer together politically, a clash between the interests of the two countries in Central Asia seems likely"
(Sobytiya, June 27).
The media believe that Moscow must be more energetic in expanding economic cooperation. Otherwise, they point out, Russia's influence in the republic will weaken. "Tajikistan wants Russia to show greater economic involvement, and if this is not the case, an active search for other partners will begin and relations may go sour" (Fakty i kommentarii, June 27).
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