MOSCOW, March 30 (RIA Novosti) Joint Russian-American ABM treaty unlikely/Russia may join NATO in the future - expert/ Rosneft chooses Chinese partners for Sakhalin III energy project/ General Motors sets its sights lower/ Space brings Russia glory but not money - experts
Gazeta
Joint Russian-American ABM treaty unlikely
The idea that Moscow and Washington could work together on a joint anti-ballistic-missile (ABM) system to defend against Iran was proposed by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried.
Russian analysts consider this idea an attempt to defuse tensions surrounding the deployment of an ABM system in Eastern Europe. There are no grounds for implementing this idea, analysts said.
The United States feared that Russia would withdraw from the intermediate- and short-range missile treaty, said Gleb Pavlovsky, president of the Effective Politics Foundation. "Americans want to stop this process, so they act like Iranians," said Pavlovsky. "Just as the Iranians stalled for time by saying that they were ready to enrich uranium in Russia, so the Americans are delaying Russia's withdrawal from the treaty by saying that they are ready to develop a joint ABM system. In fact they are trying to involve Russia in their conflict with Iran."
Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategy and Technology (CAST), said more firmly, "We do not fully trust European countries even on less sensitive projects than the anti-missiles system, and in the case of the United States, all this is just idle talk or diplomatic tricks."
Carrying out this trick is also hopeless from a technical point of view. "It has been 15 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the Americans have gone forward with their technology, but we have not invested anything for 15 years," said Andrei Ionin, a Ph.D. in technical science, associate member of the Tsiolkovsky Academy of Cosmonautics and an expert at CAST.
American experts agree with their Russian colleagues. Robert McLean, a research associate at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., said to the paper that such collaboration is unrealistic for now because it would mean sharing technology in this field.
Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Russia may join NATO in the future - expert
Last week U.S. Congress supported Ukraine's and Georgia's entry to NATO. Should Russia also try to join the alliance?
Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the international committee of the Russian parliament's upper chamber: "We should not even consider this now. They will simply not admit us. Unfortunately, judging by the deployment of military bases and the fast track procedure for admitting new members to NATO, the alliance still views us as a potential threat. However, I cannot rule out that Russia could join the alliance sometime in the future, depending on what the threat or fight was. If they were common threats like global terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, environmental and social upheavals, then that would be right up our street."
Sergei Karaganov, head of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy: "Theoretically, Russia should join NATO. But this is not an issue in reality. NATO is still dominated by forces that would be unhappy if Russia was a member. Moreover, they have grown stronger in recent years due to the alliance's expansion."
Konstantin Kosachev, chairman of the international committee of the Russian parliament's lower chamber: "Russia should not join NATO; this organization in its current form is outdated and ill equipped to solve the problems that man faces (weapons proliferation, international terrorism). It cannot help us to resolve such issues. In terms of general security, Russia is self-sufficient and does not need additional protection from NATO."
Sergei Oznobishchev, director of the Institute of Strategic Assessment: "Discussion should not be about NATO membership, but about helping the alliance to transform into a different organization. Otherwise, today's confrontation between Russia and NATO, the simulated partnership and cooperation that in reality do not exist will simply continue."
Alexander Rahr, expert of the German Council for Foreign Policies: "The problem is that after September 11 the alliance has turned into an organization that strengthens the unipolar U.S.-led world. Moscow, however, will never agree to be led."
Kommersant
Rosneft chooses Chinese partner for Sakhalin III energy project
Russia's state-owned oil major Rosneft yesterday announced that it had set up a company to operate the Sakhalin III oil and gas project together with China's Sinopec. Another candidate for the project was the Sakhalin Oil Company controlled by the administration of the Far Eastern island, however, Rosneft rejected it.
The Russian major will hold a 74.9% in the new company Venin Holding Ltd. Sinopec's share will be 25.1%.
The Veninsky block is one of the sections on Sakhalin III off the island (the rest has yet to be distributed). Its reserves are estimated at 169.4 million metric tons of crude oil and 258.1 billion cu m of gas. Sinopec will finance 75% of geological exploration.
A source in the Sakhalin Region administration said, "Under the agreement with Rosneft, we were supposed to get 25.1% in Venineft, the license holder, and not in some structure, which it is still unclear why we need it."
Rosneft's representatives, however, said that "the company is under no obligation to the Sakhalin Oil Company," and that Rosneft had informed the regional administration that "future cooperation was unfeasible" at the end of last year.
The source in the administration confirmed that they had received a letter about SOC being excluded from the project in October 2006. "But we did not agree to it and believe that we have a right to participate," he said. He, however, declined to comment on possible litigation and why the administration had not taken any action.
Valery Nesterov of the Troika Dialog investment company estimated the block's reserves at $280 million, which means that the cost of the stake claimed by SOC could be up to $70 million. A source familiar with the situation said that the conflict had yet to be settled. "It is difficult to sue Rosneft, but it has numerous operations on Sakhalin and will have to interact with the administration in any case, and if the relationship is tense then it could make it more difficult," he said.
Vedomosti
General Motors sets its sights lower
General Motors has reviewed its production estimates for the second time in two weeks at the plant it is building in St. Petersburg. Instead of 100,000 cars a year it will now assemble 70,000. Production investment will be about $300 million. Most likely GM will turn out budget models.
In the middle of last year the company decided to build a plant in St. Petersburg. It had planned to produce 25,000 cars a year at a cost of around $115 million. Two weeks ago, President of GM Europe Carl-Peter Forester announced that the plant's capacity would be increased to 100,000 vehicles. But on Thursday the management reduced its estimated output to 70,000 cars, with production funding set at no more than $300 million. The enterprise will produce Chevrolet Captiva and S-class cars, said a press release.
The first stage alone will cost GM $300 million, said Sergei Fiveisky, deputy chairman of the economic development committee of the St. Petersburg administration. According to him, the changes in GM plans will not lengthen the project lead-time. The first stage will be built on a 40-hectare plot of land, out of a total of 92 hectares provided by the city, the official said.
Dealers are anticipating surprises from GM, said Mikhail Logutenko, CEO of the St. Petersburg dealership of the American Laura company. He said the corporation is planning to produce a low-priced model costing less than $9000. In this case, near tripling of output would be justified, the dealer said.
It looks as if GM has realized how many cars it could really sell in Russia, said Yevgeny Bogdanov, head of engineering and transport at A.T.Kearney. But the basic operation in St. Petersburg will turn out low-cost vehicles, he said. He noted, however, there was a six-month waiting list for Chevrolet-Captiva crossovers.
Gazeta
Space brings Russia glory but not money - experts
On Thursday, the Presidium of the State Council, which comprises Russia's regional leaders, held its visiting session in Kaluga, a city south-west of Moscow, to discuss how the national space program could benefit the economy.
The Presidium said the Russian economy could only benefit from communication satellites, while experts doubt their efficiency.
The Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) is just about the only cost-effective space program to date.
Although pocket personal computers and cell phones still cannot operate outside the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS), Russia and the European Union are working hard to develop their own navigation systems.
The EU's satellite-navigation system Galileo faces serious problems; and the European Commission even threatened to terminate the project, unless the parties reached a consensus on principled issues.
Russia's GLONASS project is not very successful either because only eight GLONASS satellites are currently in orbit.
In early March, First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov, one of the likely candidates to succeed President Vladimir Putin, said the GLONASS system will be opened to commercial users late this year.
But analysts doubt the system's market prospects.
Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, said Russia does not need a GPS-type system. He said the GLONASS system will be adapted for civilian use to make it profitable.
But it will not be very popular because few people will install GLONASS receivers into personal pocket computers and cell phones, Murtazin said.
The GLONASS system will become cost-effective only if the Government persuades corporate users to adopt it, he told the paper.
This project has political implications because Russia will elect its parliament and president in December 2007 and March 2008, respectively.
By promoting the GLONASS system, Russia wants to prove that it is not dependent on Western technology, Alexei Makarkin, deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies, said.
He said the Kremlin is trying to improve its reputation through space programs, and society thinks Russia is therefore reasserting itself as a powerful and influential country.
RIA Novosti is not responsible for the content of outside sources.
