ESTONIA
The press is discussing Estonia's withdrawal from Russia's integrated energy system. Analysts believe that in this way it will achieve energy security.
"The question is whether we must be part of the Russian system forever... If we enter the Lithuanian-Polish alternating current system, especially if we build two more lines from Tabasalu [a village near Tallinn, the Estonian capital], we will become part of the big circle and work in the same rhythm as Central Europe." (Eesti Ekspress, March 16.)
Journalists blame the Russian government's refusal to consent to the opening of a new Tallinn-St. Petersburg air route on political problems in bilateral relations. "Considering the recent uneasy relations between the two countries, it may be quite difficult to obtain this consent... The need for the air connection between the Estonian capital and Russia's second largest city is long overdue. Many Estonian businessmen have interests in St. Petersburg... Tallinn continues to be appealing to Russians." (Postimees, March 14.)
LATVIA
Experts note that President Putin's European tour [including visits to Italy, the Vatican and Greece] pursued only one goal: to promote Russia's global energy strategy. "The Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline will make it possible to divert oil from the overloaded Turkish straits and Turkey itself... For Russia, Turkey is no less risky than Ukraine as a transit state because its interests do not usually coincide with those of Russia." (Biznes&Baltiya, March 14.) "The Russian gas giant Gazprom has gained the most from Putin's visit - starting in April, it will be able to sell its product in Italy without a middleman." (Diena, March 15.)
Observers emphasize that the Russian and Italian leaders share views on many foreign policy issues. Some publications claim that the prime minister could have been co-opted by the KGB. "Indicatively, since his appointment as head of the Italian government, Romano Prodi has had one bilateral meeting with George Bush and four with the Russian president." (Telegraf, March 14.) "Probably, the two leaders are united by something bigger than simply common views on international relations. Italian Senator Paolo Guzzanti has recently published an article accusing Romano Prodi of close ties with the KGB in the Soviet era." (Vesti-segodnya, March 14.)
LITHUANIA
Analysts believe that the main threat to the EU's common energy policy comes from Russia, which is tempting the Europeans with its proposals. The press is worried that Lithuania may totally lose its energy independence. "The EU heads of state and government have announced with pomp the adoption of an energy policy, but words are at variance with deeds in more than one European capital wishing to profit from Russian gas. The repercussions of the Brussels meeting were not yet over when Hungary dealt a slap in the face to its EU partners. After a long flirtation with Moscow, the Hungarian government has actually agreed to join the Blue Stream project run by the Russian gas monopoly Gazprom." (Lietuvos rytas, March 14.)
"The Kremlin's mounting energy offensive, constantly growing energy prices and Russia's repeated warning that gas prices will also go up very soon are compelling us to consider whether or not we will be able to achieve some level of energy independence in the future." (Valstibe, March 15.)
UKRAINE
The news that an agreement to set up a gas OPEC may be signed in April confirms commentators' worst fears. The media believe that if the leading gas exporters unite, Moscow will have more opportunities to carry out its own energy policies on the world stage, burying the hopes of hydrocarbon importers to diversify their energy sources. Analysts believe that this energy conspiracy will hit Ukraine the hardest because it is not ready to replace gas with alternatives. "This will mean that consumer countries will be fully dependent on those who have the pipeline... Putin needs more instruments of intimidation. Ukraine will have a hard time... The formation of a gas OPEC is blackmail, pure and simple." (Gazeta po-kievsky, March 20.)
MOLDOVA
Some media are accusing Russia of having reverted to its historical commitment to authoritarian rule. Internationally, this is manifest in its support for "illegal regimes," such as Transdnestr. "The fear of collapse under the burden of democracy has taken root deep in the minds of the Russian political elite. It generates phobias and aggressive attitudes towards other countries, such as Moldova. As a result of this perverted strategy, Russia has become a zealous supporter of practically all pariah regimes...The idea of a democratic circle in the northern hemisphere including the United States, Canada, Japan, the EU and Russia is not popular with the Russian ruling elite, who prefer a 'third way.' Under the circumstances, we can only hope that the Russian eagle will get rid of its imperial ambitions and become capable of flying to the civilized world's nest." (Flux, March 14.)
GEORGIA
Commenting on the situation in Abkhazia, where Moscow is giving Russian passports to all those who want them, analysts point to the main negative aspect of such a practice - it gives criminals a chance to change their identity and go to Russia. "Criminals from Turkey, Syria, Jordan and other countries often arrive together with workers to the ports of Sukhumi and Ochamchira aboard vessels from Turkey. They come to Abkhazia in the hope of getting a Russian passport without a hassle. They change their names and go to Krasnodar, Sochi, Chechnya, the North Caucasus, and other Russian regions... Some of them are joining terrorist groups, which are becoming the Kremlin's permanent headache." (Akhali Taoba, March 17.)
AZERBAIJAN
Experts agree that elements of an American anti-ballistic-missile (ABM) system may be set up in the South Caucasus to the detriment of Russia's interests and security. "The question of which country in the South Caucasus will host ABM elements is still relevant. If we exclude Armenia, the candidates are Azerbaijan and Georgia... In Eastern Europe, the United States will set up a radar in the Czech Republic and an interceptor system in Poland. It is quite possible that in the Caucasus these two systems will be split between Azerbaijan and Georgia." (Azadliq, March 16.) "Today, its ties with America are so important to Azerbaijan that it will not sacrifice them for the sake of its relations with Russia. It no longer has any other options, and it will never say 'no' to America for Russia's sake." (Yeni Musavat, March 14.)
The media believe that the Burgas-Alexandroupolis project - Moscow's response to the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline - is more oriented to politics than profits. "Russia will have to share its money and influence with Greece and Bulgaria, or face the same problems as it does with Ukraine and Belarus. The chance that the Balkan pipeline will help Russia seize the initiative on the European and world energy markets and reduce its risks at the expense of transit countries, should not be overrated. Obviously, these risks and the instability of supplies have been engendered not by oil transit countries, but by Moscow itself, which considers it possible to change the rules of the game on the fly. It is becoming clear that Russia's pipeline hopes are, alas, exaggerated." (Echo, March 16.)
KAZAKHSTAN
Experts are skeptical about Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev's idea of a Eurasian economic alliance. "Launching an integration project on the eve of the elections is not in the interests of the Russian government, all the more so as that project is still in the cradle." (Liter.kz, Kazakhstan, March 16.)
"It goes without saying that the Kazakh president's proposal for yet another integration initiative will cause many skeptics to grin. Their attitude is based on a truth that is becoming increasingly obvious - similar economic organizations on ex-Soviet territory are completely ineffective. The EurAsEC [Eurasian Economic Community], CSTO [Collective Security Treaty Organization], and the UES [United Economic Space] produce more noise than economic results. If it is still possible to carry out some projects as part of EurAsEC, the UES is a total waste of time." (Liter.kz, Kazakhstan, March 20.)
The government in Astana, the Kazakh capital, has shown interest in the trans-Balkan pipeline. "Kazakhstan, which wants to become a global energy supplier, sees new opportunities in the project... We are conducting talks with Russia and the shareholders of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium on expanding the oil pipeline, and if we succeed, we will be able to double our current supplies of 25 million metric tons... In that case, Kazakhstan would produce more oil than we need domestically, and we could send it via new routes, such as the Burgas-Alexandroupolis pipeline." (EkspressK, March 17.)
KYRGYZSTAN
The press is quoting Kyrgyz politicians' criticism of Canada's Centerra Gold, which has been developing the Kumtor gold deposit, and suggesting that the Canadians should hand the project over to Russia. "The 1992 Treaty has never been ratified either by parliament or the president... The Canadians are paying very little into the budget. We can develop this deposit without them. Let's turn to our strategic partner, Russia, with its rich experience in gold mining. It will be very happy to come here... We have the legal right to do so, and we have every reason to transfer the National Bank's reserves to Russia's Central Bank." (Vechernyi Bishkek, March 16.)
UZBEKISTAN
Experts predict a chill in relations between Moscow and the government in Tashkent, the Uzbek capital. "It seems that both Uzbekistan and Russia will try to put a good face on the matter - bilateral relations that are 'ostensibly' on the up will serve as a smokescreen behind which Uzbekistan will be won over by more deft Asian partners, which it needs to cooperate with the outside world...There is every reason to believe that if Russia dilly-dallies, Central Asian capitals' enthusiasm for integration will go up in smoke, and outside forces, primarily the United States and its NATO allies, will not miss their chance." (Fergana.Ru, March 15.)
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