MOSCOW, February 21 (RIA Novosti) Moscow worried, but not hysterical, about U.S. ABM system in Europe/Washington provoked Putin's tough remarks in Munich - political expert/Competition unlikely for Yukos assets/Russia charges anti-dumping duties on EU steel/Russian tycoon tries to protect himself against new Ukrainian revolution
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Rossiiskaya Gazeta
Moscow worried, but not hysterical, about U.S. ABM system in Europe
Poland and the Czech Republic have virtually agreed to allow the United States to deploy elements of its strategic anti-ballistic missile system on their territories.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow will react to such developments, but will not allow itself to be dragged into another arms race.
Army General Yury Baluyevsky, head of the Russian Armed Forces' General Staff, said he is concerned over the possible consequences of intercepting ballistic missiles near Russian borders or over its territory.
Lavrov said: "After all our efforts to build a foundation for the future, we simply have no right to risk Russia's economic and financial well-being."
If the United States wants to deal with the potential Iranian or North Korean threat, then it should deploy ABM elements in other regions. But if such elements appear in Poland and the Czech Republic, then we would have every reason to say that they can intercept Russian missiles, he told the paper.
He said the 1972 ABM Treaty aimed to discourage the U.S.S.R. and the United States from launching a pre-emptive missile strike. U.S. strategists, who probably believe that an ABM system would protect America from a first strike, might be tempted to deal a pre-emptive strike.
The deployment of ABM systems in Eastern Europe could encourage other countries to upgrade their missile systems and possibly trigger a missile race near Russia's borders, Baluyevsky said.
The Kremlin is worried about the possible consequences of intercepting ballistic missiles near Russia's borders or in Russian airspace.
He said it is virtually impossible to completely destroy a nuclear-tipped ballistic missile or any other missile carrying weapons of mass destruction without damaging the atmosphere or the surface.
If the Czech Republic and Poland are ready to help defend their American ally and do not object to dangerous missile fragments falling on their territories, then the people of Russia do not want to be hostages to this situation and to face any undesirable consequences, because they have nothing to do with U.S. plans, Baluyevsky said.
Izvestia
Washington provoked Putin's tough remarks in Munich - political expert
Two events made Vladimir Putin go famously tough in his remarks in Munich, writes Vyacheslav Nikonov, president of the Politika Foundation.
The first was a statement by U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates during Congressional hearings making Russia all but part of the "axis of evil."
The second was a decision to deploy components of an American national anti-missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Washington could not but know that Moscow would respond sharply when the issue of the military-strategic balance was concerned.
One of the axioms of the nuclear missile era is - whoever reinforces his shield is tempted to draw his sword.
That reinforcement is taking place close to Russia's borders, where Mikhail Gorbachev was firmly assured that no military infrastructure would be installed, just as he was assured that NATO would not be enlarged.
The treaty on intermediate- and shorter-range missiles (INF Treaty), concluded by Gorbachev and Reagan in 1987, had a direct bearing on the overall military-strategic balance, and was signed with the ABM limitation treaty still valid, the treaty from which the United States recently withdrew unilaterally.
If there had been a faint prospect of any American anti-missile defense system moving into Eastern Europe, no INF Treaty would have materialized. Why the U.S. should provoke a new round of the nuclear missile race now is not quite understandable.
Some analysts have hastened to link the deterioration of the international situation and the latest reshuffles in the government, giving far more political weight to the now former Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov.
But if Putin had really wanted to turn the country into a military camp, a general, rather than a taxman, would have been made the head of the military establishment.
Ivanov's promotion is evidence of Putin's intention to give a technological boost to the civilian sector, because it is an open secret that the defense industry is the main incubator of high technologies.
And the fact that Ivanov is increasingly tipped as future president has very little to do with the present "cold peace" with the U.S.
To my thinking, a return to the Cold War is not possible by definition, but a change in the political climate is - and in any direction.
Vedomosti
Competition unlikely for Yukos assets
Yukos's creditors committee has endorsed the procedure for selling off the property of the company that was declared bankrupt last August.
The first auction to sell stocks of former Sibneft (now Gazprom Neft) and Rosneft will be held in March. Competition for these assets is unlikely, experts say, as Gazprom and Rosneft have long wanted to obtain them.
Creditors have decided to sell all the assets at public auctions, with a deposit of 20% of a lot's starting price and an increment of 0.5%-1% of the starting price.
The first to go could be a 9.44% stake in Rosneft (the starting price is 182.3 billion rubles) and a 20% stake in Gazprom Neft (105.5 billion rubles).
Nikolai Lashkevich, from the press service of Yukos's bankruptcy receiver Eduard Rebgun, said the company's creditors decided yesterday to hold the first auction in March. It will be officially announced this week.
The stakes in Gazprom Neft and Rosneft will be sold first, said a source close to the creditors committee.
Gazprom's top managers have long wanted to buy 20% in their oil subsidiary and have even assigned $3.75 billion for the purpose in their investment program. Rosneft's management has also repeatedly spoken about plans to purchase 9.44% stake held by Yukos.
A source close to the state-owned oil major yesterday confirmed that the plans did not change.
Given Rosneft's price on the MICEX yesterday, its 9.44% stake costs 226.37 billion rubles ($8.63 billion), or 24% above the preliminary starting price.
If there is a 20%-25% discount off the market price, competition for the lot could be spirited, said a source close to Rosneft's board of directors. The company has already come to terms with banks on taking a $24.5 billion loan to purchase Yukos's assets.
The market price of 20% of Gazprom Neft - 109.52 billion rubles ($4.17 billion) - is just a little above the starting price. "It is higher than Gazprom expected," said a source close to the gas giant's management.
Gazprom and Rosneft have long wanted to purchase these stakes from Yukos, so competition for them is unlikely, said Steven Dashevsky, chief analyst with the Aton brokerage.
"That is good news for Rosneft, because few expected such a discount, and neutral news for Gazprom, as the starting price is close to the market price," he said.
Kommersant
Russia charges anti-dumping duties on EU steel
On Tuesday, Russian customs authorities began to charge 840 euros in anti-dumping duties on each metric ton of EU nickel-alloyed rolled stock.
The Luxembourg-based steel giant Arcelor-Mittal, which annually sells 40,000 metric tons of nickel-alloyed rolled stock, will suffer most of all.
Alexei Sotskov, the head of Mechel Steel Group's press service, said protectionist measures would allow the Chelyabinsk Iron and Steel Works, part of the Group, to boost production of nickel-alloyed rolled stock by 40% this year.
In 2004, Russian authorities launched an anti-dumping investigation of EU nickel-alloyed rolled stock at the request of Mechel Steel Group, as well as the Serp I Molot and Krasny Oktyabr iron and steel works.
At that time, the concerned companies, which are now merging into the company RusSpetsStal, accounted for 50% of Russian stainless steel output.
Producers pointed to EU dumping practices, mostly by Arcelor-Mittal, and said the rivals charged $1,657 for each metric ton of nickel-alloyed rolled stock on EU markets, but dumped their products on the Russian market for only $708 per metric ton.
The 134% dumping margin swelled annual EU steel-alloyed rolled stock imports by over 50% in 2003-2004, and reduced Mechel Steel Group's Russian-market share from 30% to less than 11% in 2005.
On November 29, 2005, Russia's Economic Development and Trade Ministry completed the anti-dumping investigation and submitted a draft resolution on imposing import duties [that was coordinated with other concerned departments] to the government.
However, it took over a year to approve the document. The Economic Development and Trade Ministry declined to say anything about the cause of the delay, and the Industry and Energy Ministry said it "does not comment on political questions."
Officials, who wished to remain anonymous, explained the delay by the active resistance of the EU, which lobbies for Arcelor-Mittal's interests. Russia used the customs duties as leverage at multilateral WTO accession talks.
Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Kommersant
Russian tycoon tries to protect himself against new Ukrainian revolution
The merger of Russia's Gazmetall with Ukraine's Industrial Union of Donbass is not final yet, but the potential co-owners of the merged giant, which can become the biggest player on the Russian steel market, are already forging ambitious plans.
Alisher Usmanov, owner of the majority stake in Gazmetall, has announced plans to arrange an IPO in London within a year.
In two or three years, the new holding may cost much more than the present $15-$19 billion, experts said, but it should not postpone the flotation while waiting for its capitalization to grow.
Dmitry Parfenov of the Prospekt brokerage said that the merged company wanted to float while prices on the steel market remained favorable, because they could drop significantly in 2008, pushing steel stocks down.
Moreover, the influence of political factors is growing - both Russia and Ukraine will hold elections next year.
"No one is protected against another 'orange' revolution and the subsequent review of transactions," the expert said. "But an IPO in London will minimize all political risks. Ukraine is striving for integration with Europe and is unlikely to try to spoil relations with Western investors."
Kiev can block the transaction at the stage of the joint venture setup if the Ukrainian authorities decide that the Russian party should not be given control over the united company.
"The Ukrainian authorities do not like it when Russian capital takes over Ukrainian companies," said Alexei Makushkin, president of the Center of National Competitiveness Research.
Russophobe sentiments are ever-present in Ukraine, he said. "The idea of business elites that are close to the authorities is to grow and develop with anyone except Russia," he said. "That is irrational and it is Ukraine's main problem currently."
The Donbass Union comprises over 40 different industrial enterprises in Ukraine and other countries, the bulk of them steel and heavy machine-building companies.
It produces almost 10 million metric tons of steel annually, and its annual revenues are about $3.5 billion.
Gazmetall produces about 6 million metric tons of steel and 40 million metric tons of iron ore raw materials, accounting for 40% of Russia's output. Its revenues equal $5 billion.
