ESTONIA
The local mass media focuses on the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya, with the Russian-Georgian conflict receding into the background. It is believed that the death of Politkovskaya, an outspoken critic of the Kremlin, is another step toward abolishing freedom of speech and establishing a dictatorship in Russia.
"All the theories of who is behind the murder are not important; what matters is that freedom of speech, which is a pillar of democracy, is still alive in Russia. There is no direct censorship yet. However, state-owned TV channels and leading newspapers are subject to total control. Small newspapers and online editions continue promoting freedom of speech, but an absolute majority of the Russian media is in the so-called gray zone between the two extremes. The Kremlin's arms are too short for absolute control, and most of the monitoring is done by the editors and journalists themselves. It is a kind of self-imposed control. The question is whether the bravest among them will disappear from the scene. Will self-censorship triumph and defeat everyone?" (Parnu Postimees, October 10.)
"Politkovskaya's murder has created a terrible feeling of deja vu. People simply vanish in Putin's Russia the way they did during the KGB rule. This is the third political murder in the last three weeks ... Politkovskaya's murder seems particularly ominous if we bear in mind her powerful criticism of the Russian president." (Eesti Paevaleht, October 11.)
Analysts claim Russia's search for the so-called "Russian idea" jeopardizes the security of post-Soviet states. "The Russian idea is more dangerous than ever before because the Russian government wants to put it into practice. Unlike in the past, this concept today has less appealing metaphysics and more aggressive geopolitics. The Big Bear first set its sights on Kazakhstan where conflicts between Russian and Kazakh population provide a good pretext for intervention. Northern and western Kazakh regions are being gradually annexed; similar events may take place in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine. Estonia may also face a similar threat." (Diplomatia, October 16.)
LATVIA
The local press notes with satisfaction that Berlin has not opted for a "separate arrangement" with Moscow on energy supplies, which would have made Germany a European gas distribution center. "Angela Merkel has turned down the generous offer to make Germany the main distributor of Russian gas in Europe ... Russia has been told to comply with the Energy Charter, a document Vladimir Putin rejects as 'running counter to national interests'." (Telegraf, October 16.)
"Merkel has made an unexpected move highlighting her attitude toward Germany's eastern neighbor. The German Chancellor's visit to France has clarified all political and economic priorities with regard to Russia, which has been told to take a secondary role." (Biznes & Baltija, October 16.)
The press writes that the verdict on the death of Chechen citizens passed by the European Court of Human Rights is humiliating for Russia, which is trying to portray the war in the Caucasian republic as an anti-terrorist effort.
"The European Court of Human Rights has found Moscow guilty of murder of five Chechen residents ... The Court's verdicts are humiliating for Russia because it portrays ... the war in Chechnya as an internal political crackdown on terrorists. Now Moscow is facing the prospect that it will not only be reminded about the crimes perpetrated by its troops but will also be forced to pay large compensations." (Diena, October 13.)
"The European Court of Human Rights has found Russia guilty in the case of murder of five Chechens ... It emphasized that Russian soldiers kidnap, rape and torture people, and the authorities are doing little to bring the culprits to justice." (Latvijas Avize, October 13.)
LITHUANIA
The local media describes the Russian President's visit to Germany as a fiasco because of Vladimir Putin's failed attempt to offer exclusive partnership to Germany on the Shtokman gas deposit to the detriment of the EU interests. The Lithuanian press has called this offer a 'bribe.'
"Vladimir Putin was more successful in courting former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder than his successor. The Russian leader's long-cherished hope of forging an energy alliance with Germany and strengthening Russia's influence in Europe has been dashed ... Angela Merkel has shown she is tough." (Lietuvos Ritas, October 14.)
Local publications continue to actively discuss the murder of Anna Politkovskaya. The media does not absolve the Kremlin of any responsibility and believes that some Kremlin group opposing Putin, may have been interested in this crime. This theory seems to be more substantiated than any other.
"Barring emotions, one should admit that the Kremlin may only be accused of indirect complicity in this murder. True, Putin and secret service clans, which he brought to power, have created a regime where opponents are not only persecuted but also killed. Only a madman could have perpetrated this crime because it is like a slap in the face for Putin. This premeditated crime was committed on Putin's birthday in order to play a dirty trick on him ... The most plausible explanation is that Politkovskaya was murdered by a group opposing Putin. It is obvious that the Kremlin-created pyramid has many such people." (Lietuvos Ritas, October 14.)
UKRAINE
The press is divided on the Moscow visit by Oleksandr Moroz, Speaker of Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada (parliament). The majority agree that the reception Moroz was given does not mean the Kremlin has reviewed its priorities or that the Ukrainian Speaker was regarded as the only mediator in the dialogue between Moscow and Kiev. On the contrary, the media say, Russia will prefer using the differences between the key political forces to increase pressure on Ukraine. "Moroz's visit was a success in terms of propaganda, rather than establishing sound and lasting contacts with Russian partners" (Glavred, October 13.)
"Moroz transformed Ukraine's foreign policy concessions to Russia into a social competition of sorts: those who will turn their back on the West to face the East will be entitled to Moscow's largest support... Moroz supported the synchronization of Ukraine's and Russia's accession to the WTO... Now it's Yanukovych's turn again, and fortunately, he has huge resources at his disposal - from regional energy companies to the country's entire gas transportation system" (Podrobnosti, October 13.)
MOLDOVA
A thaw in Moldovan-Russian relations gave rise to criticism of Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin. The press said the meeting between the two presidents led to a secret compromise on Transdnestr. "Voronin, who was recently expelled from the production's cast by its director Putin, was finally given a small role, and he accepted it... Voronin agreed to sign another memorandum by Dmitry Kozak, a special representative of the Russian president in the Southern Federal District, under which Moldova and Transdenstr would coexist like Serbia and Montenegro for a while. This model may suit the West, provided Russia withdraws its troops and arsenals from the left bank of the Dniester River" (Jurnal de Chisinau, October 17.)
Newspapers quote recent statistics to show that Romania has been gradually edging Russia out of the rating of Moldova's leading economic partners. "The reshuffle will take place early next year if the trend of the last eight months persists... Only Moldova's dependence on Russian energy deliveries, and primarily a two-stage increase in gas prices, prevented Romania from outstripping Russia as Moldova's main trading partner" (Flux, October 11.)
ARMENIA
Analysts believe Russia's recent moves have damaged its own interests in the Caucasus. "A group of experts on the Caucasus, who visited Armenia a couple of weeks ago, said Russia does not have a clear vision of its interests in the Caucasus and actually lacks a clear policy in the region. It seems the only way to explain this statement is the famous maxim that it's hard to understand Russia ... Georgia's policy cannot be described as reasonable either, even in the light of NATO's or U.S. dictate... Politicians in both countries make statements that ... provoke hatred at a level where no such issues have been raised before." (Azg, October 11.)
"Obviously, Russia (and it does not matter if under outside pressure or on its own initiative) is doing its best to withdraw from South Caucasus for good and to loose its influence in the region." (Hayots Ashkhar, October 11.)
Official Yerevan is considering ceding the Armenian railways to Russia under a concession agreement as a potential solution to the transport problem facing Armenia. Experts categorically oppose the idea. "Russia already has a vast presence in Armenia... Won't the Armenian railways be another political trump card in Russia's hands, all the more so since the Russian Railways is a state-run company?.. There will be no positive changes in management efficiency... We will in fact replace one government management with another, with all its intrinsic bureaucratic ways, which may also have political consequences." (Aravot, October 13.)
GEORGIA
Media gives wide coverage to the toughening of measures against Georgian migrants in Russia and describes the events taking place in Russia as Nazism. "Russia's present actions are a manifestation of Nazism. There is no other name for them. If you add to this the killing of journalist Anna Politkovskaya, it will appear Russia today is acting in the Nazi mold." (Georgian Times, October 10-19.) "Free trade unions of scholars and teachers in Georgia condemn the expulsion of Georgian children from Russian schools and closures of Georgian schools, as well as demands by Russian officials that schools provide information on the parents of Georgian children. Trade union representatives consider this to be a sign of the beginning Georgian genocide in Russia." (Sakartvelos Respublika, October 13.)
Every publication stresses that politically Russia has lost in its conflict with Georgia. "It can be said without exaggeration that this is the first full-scale political and information war which Georgia has won against Russia fully and completely. The small Georgian nation has shown the real face of its northern neighbor to the whole world. Of course, it is naive to think that this is news for anyone. But, if we proceed from the precept that 'repetition is the mother of learning', this country has once more demonstrated with its own example that Russia's aggression had not slackened for a minute throughout the entire post-Soviet history." (Gruzia Online, October 16.)
The mass media is disappointed with the refusal of the GUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Moldova) countries to support Georgia in its confrontation with Russia. "Who does Saakashvili pin his hopes on in his confrontation with Russia? GUAM parliamentary speakers met in Chisinau yesterday ... [Georgian authorities] expected unanimous support on the part of GUAM. But their hopes had not been justified. Our strategic friends have preferred to keep mum ... GUAM has shown that Georgia cannot rely on this organization in serious matters and that its members have little in common with each other to form a common stand, least of all to set up a military bloc. Saakashvili and his government had expected that Russian peace-keepers could be replaced with the help of the GUAM member-countries." (Akhali Taoba, October 16.)
AZERBAIJAN
Russia's position on the nuclear test in North Korea has evoked a negative response in the press. "The Far East continues to live under a nuclear alert ... While experts are speculating whether to expect further explosions from the North Korean testing ground, people in Far Eastern countries are hastily buying up dosimeters ... The situation has changed radically since the North Korean blast, and above all for Russia. Until recently Russia has successfully managed to bargain for the right to a 'special relationship' with rogue countries, trying to persuade the West that it is the only power capable of keeping them from ill-considered moves. But the North Korean detonation ... is too convincing a counter-argument" (Ekho, October 11.)
Journalists draw attention to the potential danger created by the deportation of Georgians, most of them with criminal records, from Russia via Azerbaijan. "On Putin's instruction, a massive deportation of Georgians has begun from Russia ... Since Russia has disrupted transport links with Georgia, the dispatch of deportees has turned into a problem. Although Emergencies Ministry planes carry the Georgians directly to Tbilisi, some people are deported by trains traveling through Azerbaijan" (Yeni Musavat, October 12.)
"In the past several days, criminals of Georgian descent, who are being deported from Russia, have appeared in Azerbaijan. Unless urgent measures are taken, the undesirable aliens from the neighboring republic will simply flood Azerbaijan." (Yeni Musavat, October 11.)
KAZAKHSTAN
The media associates Russia's and Kazakhstan's proposal to postpone the summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) slated for mid-October until late November with the problems of reforming the CIS. Some publications have used this as a pretext for a discussion on a deep crisis in the CIS. "A heated debate is expected because, as experts believe, the postponement of a meeting of the CIS Council of Heads of State is connected, to a large extent, with the divergences in CIS countries' positions on key issues related to the reorganization of this integration structure... When the news came about the postponement of the CIS summit, some skeptics wondered whether this jubilee meeting would be the last one. Some also assumed that, following the unprecedented deterioration in Russia's relations with Georgia and Belarus, the CIS would be reduced to a structure uniting Russia, Central Asian Republics (Turkmenia's participation is questionable), and, perhaps, Ukraine (Liter.kz, October 12.)
Some media publications express the opinion that, with the weakening of Russia's positions in the Caucasus, Georgia has become a real candidate for the role of a leader in Transcaucasia for the first time in post-Soviet years. "In the course of a tense confrontation Saakashvili's team has shown to its northern neighbor that Tbilisi's voice is becoming decisive in the Caucasus... The latest Georgian-Russian crisis has clearly demonstrated Georgia's real claims to leadership in the region. Politicians in Russia and the other post-Soviet states have realized the irreversibility of Georgia's integration into the NATO military bloc...Apart from this, Georgia has finally got its way on the issue of the removal of Russian military bases from its territory. The impression is that Georgian politicians have managed once again to impose their rules of the game on Russia." (Liter.kz, October 14.)
KYRGYZSTAN
Some media do not rule out a speedy realignment of geopolitical forces in Central Asia resulting in a decline of Russia's influence in the region. Columnists believe that the weakening of Moscow's positions may be explained by a change in political priorities in Dushanbe [Tajikistan's capital]. "Experts speak about a slowdown in investment cooperation between Tajikistan and Russia. The republican authorities have suspended a number of key projects for an indefinite period of time. Clearly, the United States is interested in erecting another 'orange belt' around Russia in Asia. During the entire Emomali Rakhmonov's term in office, the Tajik president will be busy preparing his successor. There are some political risks for Russia in this context. A candidate for the presidency may be nominated by pro-American members of the president's inner circle since they will benefit the most from a change of Tajikistan's main partners in the international arena...This process may be regarded as another 'orange' revolution in close proximity to Russia and its allies." (Obshchestvenny rating, October 17.)
TAJIKISTAN
The opposition press underlines that ethnic Tajiks have suffered the most from deportations started on the initiative of Russian President Vladimir Putin. "The majority of deportees from Moscow are Tajiks." (Vàrîrud, October 10.) "All in all, 9,927 illegal immigrants have been deported from Moscow since the start of the year. The largest numbers of deportees are citizens of Tajikistan (2,331), Uzbekistan (1,728), and Georgia (1,151)." (Àvesta, October 12.)
The media claim that Moscow's hegemony in the CIS will inevitably result in the disintegration of this organization. "It is Russia's leadership in the CIS that may largely contribute to its collapse. In fact there is no Commonwealth; there is just Russian political protection for some and economic diktat for others. Those [countries] that follow Moscow's line (under the auspices of the CIS, the Collective Security Treaty Organization /ODKB/, EurAsEC, etc.) and are loyal to it, can rely on its support "in the fight against terrorism and extremism" (which, thus far, has boiled down to the extradition of opposition leaders from Russia), or "moral and political protection" (from 'attacks' by the United States, the OSCE, etc). President Vladimir Putin has even proposed a rotation of chair countries in the CIS and several attempts to introduce it have been made, but the republics' leaders have been all too hesitant and have ceded this role to Moscow. For this reason, the CIS Executive Committee has always been headed by top-ranking Russian officials. With those refusing to toe the line, the Kremlin plays hard: "gas at world prices", "your wine is dishwater", etc." (Facts and Commentaries, October 12.)
