Afghan energy through the eyes of Russian geologists

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MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political analyst Pyotr Goncharov) - Afghanistan is "quite likely" to possess substantial oil and gas reserves, Dr. Stephen J. Blank, Research Professor at the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army, says in his article Afghanistan's Energy Future and Its Consequences.

According to his "latest" data, perspective natural gas reserves in northern Afghanistan could range from 3.6 to 36.5 trillion cubic feet, and oil from 0.4 to 3.6 billion barrels. The professor believes these hydrocarbon treasures may provoke pipeline competition in the region between the United States and Russia.

The best place to assess the authenticity of Dr Blank's information is the All-Russia Research Institute for Geology of Foreign Countries, which can estimate the exploration of hydrocarbon reserves in northern Afghanistan, since Soviet geologists conducted a thorough study and assessment of reserves in the country's northern provinces through geophysical and contact means (exploratory drilling) for decades.

The institute has confirmed that seven gas and six oil deposits have so far been discovered in Afghanistan. All the fields are part of the Kara Kum oil and gas basin in northern Afghanistan.

Gas reserves in the seven discovered fields amount to 5.120 trillion cubic feet, including 4.230 trillion of C1 (proved) reserves. Excluding produced gas, the country's C1 reserves are estimated at 2.340 trillion cubic feet. Oil recoverables in the 6 operating fields are 0.91 billion barrels.

Stephen J. Blank himself doubts the authenticity of his data, especially the upper margin of his estimates. And these are relevant doubts. According to the All-Russia Research Institute for Geology of Foreign Countries, prospects for increasing proven hydrocarbon reserves in Afghanistan primarily depend on deep-hole drilling for 18 gas and nine oil prospects. The aggregate gas reserves on these prospects are assessed at just 5.429 trillion cubic feet, and the aggregate amount of oil recoverables is not significant either - 1.68 billion barrels.

Deep-hole drilling is not cheap, and requires hundreds of millions of dollars in investment. Precise conclusions can be drawn only after conducting such deep-hole drilling.

The Afghan Mining Ministry is aware of the statistics, since last November Russian geologists who attended the international exhibition Rebuild Afghanistan 2005, discussed the issue with the ministry's officials. I happened to interpret their conversation.

Now back to the U.S. expert's conclusions. Shall there be debates on the pipeline rivalry with Russia in Central Asia? It is true that provided the prospects for development and production of hydrocarbons in northern Afghanistan are good it will be necessary to find transportation routes across the country. Yet it will be expensive and dangerous to transport gas as it is from northern to southern areas of the republic across Afghan mountains. Gas export will be equally difficult.

The All-Russia Research Institute for Geology of Foreign Countries believes it will be easier to build thermal power plants in energy-rich northern Afghanistan and transport electricity from the north to the south, particularly since almost entire Afghanistan needs that. Energy will provide a boost for other industries. For example, there is a unique copper deposit, Ainak, south of Kabul. The deposit is ranked among the world's six largest and needs stable energy supplies for its development.

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