One gets the impression that the heads of the project have become sick and tired of waiting for Sofia's decision. AtomStroyExport, which submitted its project for tender last January, was trying to win the Bulgarian contract. With this aim in mind (and to demonstrate its capabilities to Europe), it presented state-of-the-art technologies in nuclear power plant designing, building, and operating in April this year.
Bulgaria was supposed to give its answer in May. But we are already in September. The world is changing rapidly, and the autumn calculations may show that a possible victory in the tender will not be so tempting for Russia's nuclear power industry. Russian analysts and experts are coming to this conclusion.
This is the background of the question. When the Bulgarian cabinet of ministers made a decision to resume the construction of the Belene power plant, seven options were considered. Three international consortiums expressed interest in the project. The first of these consists of the Czech machine-building company Skoda, the Italian bank Unicredito, and the Czech bank Komercni Banka. The second one includes the Russian AtomStroyExport, and the French Framatome ANP. The Canadian Atomik Energy Canada, Ltd., the Italian Ansaldo Nuclear, the American Bechtel, and the Japanese Hitachi represent the third consortium.
A technical analysis makes it clear that two options surpass the rest: either the construction of two new WWER-1000 power plants (of the V-466 type), or the building of one new reactor, and modernization of the existing V-320 model, which was brought to the Belene site way back in the 1980s. The reactor section of the first unit was already completed, 40% of the turbine island was finished, and the site prepared for the second unit. But in the early 1990s, the project was mothballed.
The cost of both design options, which Russia could do, will be 2.68 and 2.63 billion Euros, respectively, whereas any other completion variant will bring the costs to 3.5 billion Euros. It would seem that the advantages offered by Russia are obvious. Parsons Europe Ltd., a consultant of Bulgarian government on design and supervision of the Belene project, has also described the Russian version as the most expedient. It provides for the building of two WWER-1000 units, which are considered to be the best in the world both in terms of operation and security.
But the Bulgarian side is still delaying its decision on the tender, and making additional requirements on improving the project and reducing its cost. Saying that they would like to have the best for the Belene plant, the Bulgarians are tempting French companies. But the Europeans, for whom this is business, are not prepared to build two units for the Bulgarian price.
The contractors have hired 227 specialists, including 104 foreign consultants, to study the project's 300,000 pages with the Russian proposals - calculations, drawings, and designs. During the analysis, Russian experts have already answered more than a thousand questions. But the decision has still not been made.
Strictly speaking, this project involves the completion of construction, which may give rise to the same problems that Russian experts encountered when finishing the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran. As a result, the profit from the latter project is almost zero. But it was started in the difficult times of the Soviet Union's disintegration, when Russian nuclear experts were ready to go for any proposal in order to survive and preserve the technological potential. Today, when the Russian economy is clearly on the upsurge, and the nuclear industry is making a comeback, Russia can decide for itself what foreign projects are the best for it.
Today, Russia has very good prospects in the Chinese and Indian markets - at least four new power units at the existing sites in Tianvan and Kudalkulam. There are other opportunities as well. Several days ago, Russia signed an agreement on a joint venture with Kazakhstan (low-capacity WBER-300) without any tender. The first nuclear unit in China will be commissioned in a month, and the second one is nearly ready. Foreign experts rate the Tianvan nuclear power plant as the world's safest. In other words, Russia can build competitive power units, and charge for them less than the West. The Chinese and Indian contracts are much more profitable than the Bulgarian one. Why should Russia try to win the tender for the completion of the Belene NPP at all?
