Why is that? It is true that Fidel is a unique personality, but he and his brothers have spent decades purging the Cuban political elite, which now consists of very loyal but not very talented assistants.
Commitment to Castro's ideals will be put to the test in the next 10 years, and it is anybody's guess who in the Cuban political elite will become the first to abandon Fidel's commandments.
It is no use talking about the possibility of change, since it is forthcoming anyway. But we can consider possible changes. I'm afraid that both Castro's supporters and adversaries will not like my forecast.
To begin with, the upcoming changes will be extremely painful for Cubans, judging by Russia's experience. Although Cuba is much smaller, it will go the same way as Russia did on its way from an authoritarian regime to democracy, from total censorship to freedom of the press, from a one-party to a multiparty system, and so on. Cuba has some unique national, economic and geographic features, such as proximity to the United States, but the common features of a transition period will most likely dominate.
So the transition will not be smooth and painless. Fidel's brother Raul or some mediocre politician will take over for a short time and do their best to keep the country under control. This is a useless but psychologically understandable intention. In any case, the regime will fight for power tooth and nail. But Fidel's regime will collapse overnight, just like communism crumbled in the Soviet Union, because it was not made for compromise, modernization or true democracy. Historically, such regimes cannot survive.
Second, popping dislocated bones back into place is painful, but the degree of pain and the success of the operation depend entirely on the doctor. This will be another headache for the Cubans: The "doctors" will be Miami Cubans and their Washington patrons, who forget nothing and learn nothing. The Miami Cubans reject compromise per se and have spent years nurturing their hatred of everything associated with Fidel. In a word, they will not use anesthetics, and the treatment will be extremely painful.
As for politics, the White House will see to it that Cuba has formal democratic institutions, but the Freedom Island will have to wait a while for true democracy. The new Cuban regime will be a "managed democracy" for a long time, and its authorities will mistrust the people while pretending to act in accordance with democratic norms, and so some "senior authority" will have to moderate it. After all, the former Cuban emigres will never trust those who had voted for Fidel.
And lastly, Cubans, who have gotten used to living under socialism, will soon start pining for the past, when they had an illusory equality and a modest but not at all illusory future in which their children were assured a job, an education and medical assistance.
The positive results of economic change will not come quickly. At first, Cubans will suffer a long and painful period of adjustment to market conditions. Like in politics, their economy will be most likely dominated by radical approaches, which are also called "shock therapy".
Yegor Gaidar, the "father" of Russian liberal reforms, said recently that Cuban emigres from Miami had sought his advice. Gaidar is reputed to know how to change a socialist economy into a capitalist one. Cuba may have some other economic eminence grise, but the fact that Miami Cubans have asked him for a consultation speaks volumes.
I am sorry for the Cubans, who will most likely follow Russia's lead. Gaidar's radical liberal variant of economic development rapidly filled the shops with basic commodities but split society into the super-rich, driving luxury cars, and super-poor pensioners and homeless children.
After years of decline, the government of Vladimir Putin has initiated several social projects to mend the situation in Russia. As a result, Russia's GDP has been growing steadily and the country is regaining influence in the global arena.
The minor stratification of society in Cuba provoked by the economic liberalization after the end of Soviet financial injections is peanuts compared to Cuban society's forthcoming split into rich and poor as a result of radical liberal economic reforms.
The change will also be painful for one more reason. Cubans have grown used to their sovereignty and independence and to playing a special role in international affairs. The restoration of American influence, which Miami emigres will bring about, will deliver a hard blow to the national consciousness and dignity of Cubans, and irritate many of them, especially because U.S. policy has never been flexible. I don't think that policy will change, at least not towards Cuba. Therefore, a political split in Cuban society is almost inevitable, and it will take much time and effort to mend it.
And lastly, the Cuban mafia is preparing to return home. It will most probably grow stronger and have major influence in Cuba, possibly turning the island into one big gambling house.
In short, the belief that Fidel's departure will bring prosperity, democracy and moral purity to Cuba overnight is nothing but an illusion.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
