Besides, the Israeli economy and society are most likely not ready for a long war. But what will silence the cannons?
"We will not stop the war until the threat [of rockets] is removed, until our soldiers are returned home, and until you live in safe conditions," said Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert in his address to the mayors of northern cities on Monday. These are the areas which are subjected daily to rocket fire from Lebanese territory.
He said that in the past 20 days Israel had dealt a heavy blow to Hezbollah by destroying its command centers and a considerable part of its rocket potential. It will take Hezbollah a lot of time to recover, if it is possible at all, the prime minister said.
Many Israeli experts agree with this opinion. They think that the operation in Lebanon is developing successfully despite a number of mistakes committed at the start of hostilities and the losses sustained by the army.
But what is the ultimate goal of the military operation, and at what point can it be stopped?
"Military action will continue until it becomes clear that one of the sides is gaining an upper hand," a former chief of Israel's Mossad told RIA Novosti. He believes that in a week the situation in the region will look different. He does not have any doubts as to who will win.
"Our response to the abduction of Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah came as a surprise to its leaders, and they sustained considerable damage. But it is very difficult for the Israeli army to say when it can declare victory in a way that would make it obvious to all. The problem is to give a symbolic meaning to military success, so that it should symbolize the end of the war," an Israeli military analyst told RIA Novosti. He preferred to remain anonymous because he is currently serving in the army. The expert also quoted Olmert's recent statement that Hezbollah flags should not be flying on Lebanese territory. Apparently, Israel needs something similar to the Soviet Red Banner on the Reichstag in the defeated Berlin in 1945.
However, the Israelis are finding it hard to achieve a symbol of victory.
Firstly, Hezbollah rockets continue falling on Israeli territory, residents of northern areas are still in shelters, and the army is sustaining losses. Moreover, Israeli leaders have changed the aims of the military campaign several times, from the ambitious plan to completely disarm and even destroy Hezbollah to a more realistic scheme of ousting its militants from Israeli-Lebanese border. It is no surprise that Israeli society is disoriented.
Secondly, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is a seasoned politician and speaker and can skillfully exploit any situation in his favor. "Israel is losing psychologically regardless of what happens in reality," the Israeli expert said. He stressed that the real situation in the area around the Lebanese-Israeli border has changed drastically in favor of Israel. "Hezbollah will not remain in the south of Lebanon. The world community has acknowledged this, and made a decision to deploy a multinational force on the Lebanese-Israeli border. This is the main point," he concluded.
Other Israeli experts also think that Israel will continue fighting until an international military force is deployed there. "There will either be foreign servicemen in the south of Lebanon, or the Israeli army will continue combat operations. Hezbollah will not remain in the area of the Israeli border, and international community is well aware of that," the expert said.
For the time being, it is difficult to predict when the Israeli military operation will end. The UN tentatively suspended until Thursday the discussion of a potential multinational force to be sent to Lebanon's border with Israel, and possibly its border with Syria, as well. The UN deems it necessary to clear up the political situation before that.
The UN Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Operations, Jean-Marie Guehenno, said, "It is not possible to discuss the mandate of this force outside the political process, the results of which will determine its tasks." This is easy to understand: no country wants to risk its soldiers. But how much time will it take to clear up the political situation, and is there anything to clear up at all? The demands of all sides to the conflict have long been obvious. For the time being the Israeli army continues mobilizing its reserves - just in case, as the military explain.
