ESTONIA
Russia's President Vladimir Putin referred to "fair compensations" in reply to the European Union as it demanded that Russia make its energy market transparent and give overseas investors access to it. The Estonian press described the President's stance as bargaining. "Too many energy issues have been stockpiled over the years for Russia to skip over the theme of democracy and human rights, so disagreeable to it. As experts see it, Russia has been too conceited in its energy policies within recent years, what with the trumps energy-hungry Europe has ceded into its hands, and with the instability in several key petroleum-producing regions - the Middle East, Nigeria and Venezuela. Putin's statement came as peak of self-assurance, if not downright insolence, as he said Gazprom was to look for more lucrative markets in Asia unless it was allowed to build up influence in Europe. Putin took back his words yesterday but started bargaining instead. If energy cooperation with Russia is really what Europe wants, Russia should be entitled to extra benefits in exchange, said Putin." (Postimees, May 26.)
Pskov hosted a Russia-NATO Council conference within a sequence of seminars to get acquainted with Council activities and seek for the ways of military cooperation. The conference had a shocking resonance. References are made to an overall background of Russian public prejudice against NATO. "The NATO-Russia friendship conference in Pskov was accompanied by neo-fascists' and old communists' catcalls. The NATO was an ignoble failure in its intention to win the Pskov people's hearts. Anti-NATO protest rallies went as far as to burn a makeshift U.S. flag." (SL Ohtuleht, May 25.) "It pleases Russian political and community activists to gamble on confronting NATO <...> There is no point talking about NATO with those people," said Marina Kaljurand, Estonian Ambassador to Russia. "Pity the local young people live in an information vacuum. No positive news about us can reach here," another diplomat added. "If one lives in Russia and gets information about Latvia and Estonia from the Russian-based press alone, one can get the impression something is really wrong on the other side of the border." (Eesti Paevaleht, May 27.) "Posters are shown across an iron fence in Pskov, reading, 'NATO is death!' <...> Poor Russia! Everyone is secretly intriguing against it, out to encircle it, and stockpiling military technologies against it." (Postimees, May 27.)
LATVIA
A visit to Latvia by Alexy II the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia, Primate of the Russian Orthodox Church, is the week's principal event. Politics certainly underlie the visit, which has a chance to positively influence the Russian-Latvian dialogue. The press, political activists and experts are at one on that point. "By visiting Riga, Alexy II killed three birds with one stone. He offered moral support to the Orthodox Christian community of Latvia (as to say, 'Moscow remembers you'), established personal contacts at the top, and evaluated the chance to launch a Latvian-Russian dialogue. Considering special Church-State relations in Russia, the conclusion follows that the Patriarch's visit is, above all, political, with useful and pleasant additions for dressing." (Diena, May 30.) "Parliamentarians and ministers quickly became aware of the wind changing direction. The Saeima [parliament] promptly qualified Christmas and Easter according to the Orthodox calendar as national feasts, and many parliamentarians, Riga town councilors and government members attended yesterday's liturgy at the Cathedral of the Nativity of Christ" (Telegraf, May 29.)
The Russian-language press is warning the GUAM member states. "Though centrifugal trends are gaining momentum among the former Soviet republics within the CIS, experts warn: dissatisfaction with Russia may be a mighty force, yet it is a risky business to provoke Moscow. Georgia, for one, is making almost no efforts to alleviate Russia's concern <...> It would be unwise for Georgia or any of its neighbors, who are anxious for closer contacts with the West and its institutions, to provoke Moscow's tough reaction." (Daugavpils information portal, May 25.)
LITHUANIA
As the mass media see it, the Russia-European Union summit in Sochi showed that Russia is steadily toughening its stance on energy issues as the G8 summit in St. Petersburg is approaching. The media report Russian plans to set up a gas cartel with other major gas suppliers in case talks with Europe are a failure. "Vladimir Putin gave the cold shoulder to U.S. and EU criticisms of Russia for using energy resources as a political tool, and shrugged off Europe's attempt to gain access to the Russian gas mainline network <...> As Putin made it clear, he will go on doing everything to turn his country into an energy Great Power, and will shape relations with such former Soviet republics as Ukraine as he deems necessary, not as Brussels or Washington want it." (Respublika, May 29.)
On the one hand, the media express satisfaction with contestants linked to the Kremlin, directly or indirectly, failing to get the Mazeikiu Nafta control stock. On the other hand, they are worried as Russian raw material supplies may lose stability. "The performance of oil-processing works is connected with Russian oilfields, which listen to every word from the Kremlin, while it often pays no attention to Russia's own economic interests. Putting it in a nutshell, will Mazeikiai go on getting oil? That is the principal question. Russia is likely to be the only dissatisfied party throughout the history of the Mazeikiu Nafta. The Kremlin aims to grip control of the works using companies loyal to it. It has never concealed that goal. Things have gone so far that Russia was reported to intend stopping Mazeikiai oil supplies as soon as the [Polish-based concern] PKN Orlen made an understanding with Yukos <...> That would possibly be the case if oil cost $15 per barrel, but a barrel presently costs $70, so the incumbent Russian authorities would have to pay too dear a price for such a demonstration of strength." (Lietuvos rytas, May 30.)
"Just as Poland, Lithuania must be ready to make war for petroleum supplies, though the current geopolitical situation differs from what it was in 2000, when Russians could do whatever they liked. Now, Lithuania and Poland are EU and NATO members, while Russia is anxious to join the World Trade Organization. Russia has sufficiently frightened the West, as it is, with aggressive energy policies. It will hardly want to give yet another proof that it is an unpredictable country. More than that, the Polish concern imports roughly 15% of Russian oil, and another 15% of total Russian oil exports is piped to other European countries via Poland. Russians ought to think twice before they take any rough steps." (Verslo zines, May 29.)
UKRAINE
Gas prices are going up, July 1, 2006, as was officially announced. The Ukrainian press unanimously regards it as another "gas war" de facto declared on its country. "Ukraine and Russia have again whipped up the gas war that was frozen." (Rupor, May 29.)
Confrontation is inevitable as the Kremlin proceeds from an "energy monopoly doctrine", hold journalists. "Putin's concept implies unhampered Russian energy resource transits and getting the southwestern post-Soviet republics in the orbit of Russian geopolitical interests after their attempted rebellion. The concept would have no prospects in the West without reliable Moscow-controlled transport routes. Gazprom <...> is making Naftogaz docilely obeying its will to turn [the Ukrainian company] into its own regional branch. To drive Naftogaz to bankruptcy and get hold of its assets, the gas transportation system included, is the simplest way to do so <...> The Kremlin will achieve its goal, sooner or later, with regular gas price rises through the Rosukrenergo." (Podrobnosti, May 29.)
Certain media outlets regard the upcoming gas price rise for Ukraine as Moscow's standard response to whatever display of independence by Kiev. "
"Gas price is the only way for Gazprom to respond to whatever move we make." (Versii, May 29.)
Several press outlets do not rule out that Kiev may be a greater success with the next fuel and energy negotiation round. Moscow has resolutely refused to join the Energy Charter. On the one hand, the refusal drastically cut the tentative range of Ukrainian authorities' arguments in their dialogue with Russia. On the other hand, tensions persisting between Russia and the European Union strengthen Ukrainian hopes for the "European arbiter". "Evidently, Kiev will be unable to lead an eye-to-eye dialogue with Moscow <...> This time, after the Russia-EU summit proved fruitless, Ukraine has every chance for effective support from European officials and the U.S." (Podrobnosti, May 29.)
MOLDOVA
The Montenegrin independence referendum received broad acclaim. The developments in Montenegro have nothing in common with the situation in Transdnestria. That is what a majority of press statements boil down to. "There is a self-proclaimed republic on the Dniester left bank, ruled by a criminal separatist regime no one has recognized. All said and done, it has no right whatever not only of secession but even of sheer existence as a separate territorial administrative entity. That is why Transdnestrian leaders will have to restrain their ambitions." (Flux, May 25.)
"The Montenegrin referendum was legal, so the international community recognized it, while its tentative imitation in Transdnestria would come as a misdirected parody to have no legal force" (Moldova Suverane, May 24.)
The pro-Romanian press regards the GUAM summit as a political landmark. Journalists are highlighting what they see as a final break between Russia's political allies and the countries that have chosen the U.S. and Europe for their bearings. "The empire specter is gone <...> The summit participants made it clear that membership of a Kremlin-led organization is an obstacle to strengthening their countries and to democratic change. Two of the four GUAM member states have parts of their national territories occupied by Russia. They have grown convinced that Moscow will never behave justly toward them as long as it holds dominating positions." (Flux, May 26.)
ARMENIA
Ara Abramyan, Union of Russian Armenians President, is newsmaker of the week after his open pro-Russian statements. "Russia does not intend to leave Armenia. On the contrary, it is strengthening positions there. Such political forces as wish Russians to quit Armenia engage in wishful thinking <...> Whatever 'color revolution' in Armenia is ruled out." (Iravunk, May 24.) "Russia has stronger support from Armenia than from anyone else in the military respect <...> Azerbaijan's and Georgia's eagerness to join NATO may mean they are out to strangle Armenia <...> Armenians have always wanted Russian military bases to get established in Armenia once they are withdrawing from Georgia. That is the case now, and it is good." (Aravot, May 25.)
Be that as it may, opposition media outlets are extremely skeptical about the present level of Armenian-Russian partnership. "Democratic Russia alone can make a strategic partner for Armenia <...> As the present-day level of Armenian-Russian relations shows, Armenia is to Russia no more than small change to sacrifice to Russo-Turkish or any other relations." (Aravot, May 27.)
"Russia is the only country that regards present Armenian authorities as legitimate <...> Armenian authorities are ceding Armenian lands and Armenian-based projects into Russian property to preserve the legitimacy of their rule <...> Armenia is sacrificing its independence to another country piecemeal" (Aikakan Zhamanak, May 27.)
GEORGIA
There are dynamic debates on Russian economic expansion and criticisms of the Georgian authorities' policies, which lead to Russia privatizing strategic projects. "Itera accounts for 18.8% of Georgian gas supplies, while Gazprom holds the other 81.2%. Russians are controlling natural gas distribution. The shadow of Gazprom is discernible behind the recently sold Tbilgaz. The situation is the same in power engineering <...> Russians control almost all thermal power stations <...> The government is selling three distributor companies, June 16, and experts suspect they will pass into the Russian hands, directly or indirectly <...> Russia thus has complete control of the Georgian energy sphere." (Rezonansi, May 24.) "The expansion will go on in other spheres. Russia will seize everything, slice after slice. That is irreversible, as is clear now. Russia has used a similar weapon in Ukraine to get its political ends. The whole world is saying so. Our government either has no idea of what is going on in the world or is deliberately misinforming the public" (Rezonansi, May 24.) "The central artery of our economy [reference to energy projects] has been de facto ceded into the Russian hands." (Akhali taoba, May 27.)
AZERBAIJAN
The media are analyzing Kremlin tactics as it is temporarily ceding South Caucasian positions. "True, the West, mainly the U.S., is pressuring Russia, and it cedes positions in the South Caucasus, but that does not mean it will go on forever. Russia is making concessions but also building up strength, principally, at the expense of the same West, which direly needs Russian energy resources. Russia cannot withstand an open confrontation with the West, above all the U.S.A. Theoretically, it can recur to nuclear intimidation, but that would mean to bury its national economic prosperity prospects. That is why the Kremlin, to all appearances, has chosen the tactics of ceding positions for a time, but it is giving battle as it retreats. There are the new Russian chauvinists to coax, after all. After Russia gets stronger again, economically in the first place, it will certainly work to regain the lost positions. According to expert estimates, Russia will need another ten to fifteen years to start another crusade, provided energy resource prices retain their current level. Thus, Russia is sacrificing quality today for the sake of a future lucrative situation thanks to petrodollars to come in from the West." (Zerkalo, May 27.)
Certain influential Russian politicians say "independent entities" in the post-Soviet area may be recognized, Nagorny Karabakh among them. The media see it as a pretext to accuse Moscow of political blackmail. "Russia has complicated its relations with NATO and the U.S. Now it is afraid to let go of independent post-Soviet countries, and so is getting down to preventive action. To get its ends, official Moscow resorts even to blackmail. Its statements of prospects for Russian recognition of independent Nagorny Karabakh, that may follow if Azerbaijan joins NATO, come as part and parcel of such preventive moves. Surely, the statement by Mikhail Alexandrov, Russia's Institute of CIS Studies Caucasian Branch Director, aims to pressure Azerbaijani President Ilkham Aliyev, who is going to attend a NATO event in Paris. Armenia's President Robert Kocharyan refused to take part in this event on prompting from the Kremlin." (Yeni Musawat, May 24.)
KAZAKHSTAN
Moscow and Astana are strategic partners, economically and politically. They even occasionally synchronize their steps. That is why all Russian developments are so important for Kazakhstan. In this context, certain journalists are worried by authoritarianism gaining momentum in Russia, and democratic values receding into the background. "Russia's transition to democratic civil society is indefinitely prolonged, largely because the public is not ready to meet the change <...> This country [Kazakhstan] will be in the mainstream of the Russian economic and political development model as the two social systems are similar. A democratic and liberal Russia will make Kazakhstan follow it in that direction." (Navigator II, May 24.)
Russian-U.S. relations, one of permanent press topics, are regarded in the light of reforms in the post-Soviet area. As some assume, the American political slant toward unilateral action by force, of a global scope, is rooted in the world losing the other center of power, that is, the USSR, and in the inability to protect its geopolitical interests, which Russia displayed in the 1990s. "Russia ignobly lost a geopolitical gamble, with Georgia and Ukraine at stake <...> George Bush, Jr., will owe a greater part of his foreign political success to Russia's foreign political setbacks." (Gazeta.kz, May 26.)
KYRGYZSTAN
Russian-U.S. confrontation persists in the region to determine the objectives and approaches of Kremlin foreign policies, say experts. Their opinions differ on the effectiveness of Russia's Central Asian doctrine. "Moscow policies are undergoing a notable change, which set in, March 2005, to make them more aggressive-in the good sense, in pursuance of Russian interests. What America received was a response contrary to what it has in the Caucasus and Ukraine." (Agym, May 24.)
"Moscow and Washington always have the chance to settle it between themselves. Russian policies in Central Asia are shortsighted. Russia is greater success making friends with dictators. But then, dictators come and go, while the public will never forgive Russia its stance. It is not late yet for Russia to change policies." (Agym, May 24.)
UZBEKISTAN
The official press openly displays hostility toward the GUAM summit in Kiev, which made the week's principal event. The summiteers are described as mere pawns on the West-Russia confrontation chessboard. "As every sober-minded political activist and analyst realizes, certain countries in the West are making use of 'color revolutions' to gain their own geopolitical ends as they assist the forces opposing improved relations with Russia. The GUAM organization, which has made it a custom to arrange summitry at the time of cold spells in West-Russia relations, was once again placed on the chessboard <...> The West is out to counterpoise Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to Moscow, and enfeeble Russia. It wants to make Russia a country too weak to have an impact on international affairs. The West is out for a grip on Caspian and Central Asian energy resources." (XXI ASR, May 25.)
Opposition media outlets, in their turn, once again say the CIS is ineffective. "The CIS has developed into an instrument of former partners' civilized divorce as they are sharing out Soviet property <...> It failed to become an integrating power, what with too many contradictions between the countries, stocked with the years. The Commonwealth could not settle those contradictions. That was why the attempts to establish a free trade zone, and customs, payment and currency unions ended in a failure." (TRIBUNE-uz, May 24.)
TAJIKISTAN
As journalists see it, exacerbating political and economic problems of the CIS countries lead the Commonwealth to a natural collapse. Commentators point out the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a new integration alternative as they emphasize China's rapid development.
"There is no proper union, to say nothing of commonwealth. We can firmly say so today-suffice it to recollect Russia expelling Tajik immigrants, Tashkent criticizing its 'brother', and Turkmenbashi choosing complete neutrality from the start. All that led the CIS to a decline. The 'colored' [an allusion to the Orange Revolution] Georgia and Ukraine, and quarrelsome Moldova came as the last drop. They have no desire to reckon with Moscow. Still in our home, those countries have practically one leg out in the street." (Fakty i kommentarii, May 25.)
As the press sees it, an invitation from Moscow and Beijing to Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to take part in a SCO summit as head of an observer state comes as proof that the organization is able to develop into a counterweight to U.S. influence on Central Asia. "Moscow and Beijing want to bring it home to the West, especially the U.S., that the time has come to play in the political arena according to diplomatic rules <...> Washington officially expresses displeasure with Moscow displaying respect toward the opponents of its policies. The U.S. does not like Moscow to sign a military understanding with Iran and offer it defense missiles thus buttressing the Iranian defense potential." (Nadjot, May 25.)
The Rogun hydropower plant, under construction by RUSAL Co., comes under detailed press criticism. "According to company bosses' latest statements, they intend to build the Rogun plant only with the capacity the company needs for its own aluminum production, and are saving on the dam height and quality. In that, RUSAL does not even care to regard prospects of paying for the consumption of water (which is paid worldwide) that will rotate the future plant's turbine wheels." (Tojikiston, May 25.)
