ESTONIA
The media continues speculating on the upcoming 2008 presidential elections in Russia, discussing whether the Kremlin will repeat the 2000 scenario. "The opinion that at the last moment Putin may do a trick - change the Constitution and stay in the Kremlin for a third term - does not appear to be very likely. If Putin went for this, he would instantly lose his international prestige, Russia would be compared to Belarus, and the economy would sustain heavy damage. But the Kremlin may go for a more sophisticated game - leave the public to deal with two 'authentic' hopefuls - and at the last moment show it another figure, who will come as a bolt from the blue, change all the cards and pocket the aces. Boris Yeltsin played a similar game when he brought Putin to power in a couple of months. There are no grounds to think that Putin is a weaker strategist than Yeltsin." (Parnu Postimees, April 20.)
The media are writing extensively about the warning of Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller to the Western countries not to create political obstacles to gas deliveries. Otherwise, the Russian concern may turn to the Asian market. The alarmed media admit that the gas monopolist occupies a strong position. "The head of Gazprom promised, in case of need, to sell fuel to China instead of stubborn Europe. The Russian company has brought home the painful truth - the EU will have to prove that it is a worthy partner because Gazprom has other clients." (Eesti Paevaleht, April 21.)
LATVIA
The national press is unhappy that Latvia, as well as West Europe, depends on Russia for energy. "The developments suggest only one conclusion - Europe (Latvia included) may discourse at length about the plans of energy self-sufficiency, but this is all wishful thinking... At least for Latvia Russia has and will be a major energy supplier, whether we like it or not. It is beyond doubt that business in Russia continues to be intertwined with politics, and, putting it mildly, the politicians of our neighbor are not very enthusiastic about Latvia, and other Baltic countries." (Dienas biznes, April 25.)
The Russian-language press is viewing the energy squabble between Gazprom and European Commission as the beginning of bidding.
"There are grounds to assume that the current 'exchange of strikes' is no more than the start of bargaining between Europe and Russia for the spheres of influence in the energy sector. Having claimed to be Britain's biggest supplier, Russia has come up with its highest bid (complete energy monopoly in Europe). Europe has made it equally clear that Russia will have to bid down. Probably, very soon we will hear proposals, which will reveal to which extent Gazprom is ready to let the Europeans take part in its various joint projects in exchange for a solid package of shares of European energy companies." (Telegraf, April 24.)
LITHUANIA
The media are increasingly blaming Moscow for orchestrating the political scandals of the last few weeks in order to destabilize Lithuania. "The impression is that Russia rather than Lithuania stands behind the current scandals. Six ministers had to retire in Latvia, and a similar threat is brewing in the Estonian cabinet. The Baltic colleagues admit that a foreign hand is manipulating their political processes." (Respublika, April 20, Sugardas.lt, April 19.) "We feel a foreign hand in our domestic life, which is proved in publications of many local political scientists. A similar problem exists on the entire post-Soviet space and, in a somewhat different aspect, even in Western countries." (Respublika, April 20.)
The media have come up with a new version of a Russian ban on Georgian and Moldavian wines. "There is no politics in Russia - business is everything. The French say: 'Cherchez la femme', whereas in Russia, which is governed by businessmen with security force backgrounds, the smell of money is truly overwhelming... It transpired that earlier in the year Russian businessmen had bought enormous quantities of wine in Spain with a view to selling it in Russia... It is true that of late Russia was getting ready to change the rules of trade in alcohol regardless of the wine scandal. Experts believe that the system consisting of hundreds of thousands of small traders will collapse. The new 'kings' of alcohol trade, most of whom are linked with the authorities, will divide the giant market." (Lietuvos rytas, April 22.)
UKRAINE
The press is writing about the early resumption of the Russian-Ukrainian gas war. This conclusion was suggested by the words of Gazprom Deputy CEO about inevitable increase in gas prices for Ukraine in the second half of 2006. Moreover, Kiev's positions may be further weakened if Moscow-Ashgabad dialog succeeds, and Ukraine will no longer be able to count on Turkmen gas. "If Russia persuades Turkmenistan, and buys all of its gas, the price for Ukraine will change before this year expires." (RUpor, April 20.)
This new round of confrontation with Moscow brings back the question of what will happen with the Russian-Ukrainian gas transportation consortium, all the more so since the Kremlin has again emphasized its interest in the Ukranian gas transportation system. "The heads of Gazprom have said that to ensure the normal operation of the Ukrainian gas transportation system it is necessary to invest in it eight billion dollars as soon as possible. Naftogaz cannot compete with this... Thus, Russia is getting a great excuse to bring it home to us that it may become the owner of the Ukrainian gas transportation system." (Versii, April 20.)
MOLDOVA
The press is giving an extensive coverage of the decision of the Russian State Duma to back the decision of Rospotrebnadzor (Russian consumer protection service) to prohibit the imports of Moldavian and Georgian wine. Journalists are ironically commenting the debates in the lower chamber of the Russian Parliament. "The Russians have completely lost a sense of humor. They have declared economic war on us, but would like to present it as a justified health concern... Moscow knows full well that it is not right, that Chisinau abides by law when it demands that Transdnestr businesses should register in Moldavian offices. This is why Moscow has contrived an excuse, which would seem legal, and hurt more." (Jurnal de Chisinau, April 21.)
The international public organization Patria Moldova, which convened in Moscow a congress of Moldavian guest workers, continues to be heavily criticized. The media link its operation with Russian security services. "Beyond any doubt, this formation is a creature of Russian security services, a clone of the Russian 'fifth column', which was set up to feign the impression that the intrigues against Chisinau are masterminded by the Moldavian opposition rather than the Kremlin." (Flux, April 21.)
The press carries a statement by the organization of Soviet officers, who demand an end to the economic blockade of Moldova. They maintain that the oligarchs, who are the real rulers of Moscow, are bringing pressure on Moldova. "President Putin and Prime Minister Fradkov do not concern themselves with these problems, because they merely carry out the decisions of the oligarchs. The congress of Moldavian guest workers in Moscow was most probably organized and funded by (RAO UES CEO) Chubais and the uncrowned kings of the Russian fake alcohol industry." (Moldova Suverana, April 20.)
ARMENIA
The growing anti-Russian attitudes in Armenia are caused by Moscow's inadequate conduct. "Russia's policy towards Armenia gives food for thought even to the advocates of a strong alliance with Russia... Its economic considerations have prevailed over political ones. For instance, Russia does not write off Armenia's state debt of $100 million, and we pay more for gas than Turkey." (Hayots Ashkhar, April 21.)
GEORGIA
Assuming a priori that Russia's complaints about Georgian wine are explicitly political, commentators are writing about its real motives.
"What does Russia want from Georgia? Putin demanded from Shevardnadze support for the war in Chechnya, and now he wants Saakashvili to give a 'go ahead' to Russia's WTO entry. Tbilisi confirms on and off the record its readiness to 'issue a visa' to Russia. The Georgian Foreign Ministry has confirmed this in written form more than once, but it also laid down its own conditions. Previously, it limited itself to the requirements of control at customs checkpoints (in Abkhazia and South Ossetia), now it wants Russia to do away with massive falsification of Georgian trade marks and geographical names. Russia is not going to comply with these demands, and Georgia does not want to retreat so far. Russia is trying to drive a wedge between the Georgian people and government. It claims that all the problems are generated by revolutionaries." (Alia, April 20). "It is clear that a ban on Georgian wine imports to Russia is a political issue, but it would be pointless for someone in Russia to hope that the Georgian authorities will pay a political price for the wine imports." (Kviris Palitra April 24-30.)
AZERBAIJAN
The media are writing that President Bush has invited his Azerbaijani counterpart Ilham Aliyev to pay an official visit to the U.S. in order to withdraw Azerbaijan from the Russian sphere of influence. "Although Russian President Vladimir Putin has formally supported Bush's anti-terrorist struggle, he is still trying to prevent the spread of democracy on the Eurasian space. Russian diplomats and the media are presenting Washington's support for independent sources of information, civil society groups and elections as the CIA's plans to stage coups. At the same time Moscow is patronizing dictators like Islam Karimov, who suppressed massive protest by force, and advise them to instantly discontinue any relations with the U.S. In the meantime, the government-controlled Russian energy companies are rapidly laying their hands on pipelines, energy grids, and powerplants in the entire Eurasian region. If these attempts succeed, Russia will stifle all weaker states in the area, and guarantee for itself long-term control over the transportation of energy resources to Central and Eastern Europe. Putin's aggressive tactics compelled Bush to invite Ilham Aliyev to the White House in order to ask him to take resolute steps towards liberalization." (Yeni Musavat, April 25.)
Azerbaijan's interest in the transit of Caspian energy carriers to the European market explains the media's high interest in the scandal, which has erupted after Gazprom's attempt to purchase the British Centrica. "Everything has started with Gazprom's desire to acquire Britain's biggest gas distributor. For the Russian super-monopolist this would mean access to Europe's gas distribution networks... But the British government is hastily amending the legislation to bloc Gazprom's attempt... The new scandal around Gazprom does not contribute to the growth of trust in energy supplies from Russia. Hence, Europe will redouble its effort to find alternative sources of oil and gas supply, in the Caspian region among others.
However, it is clear that the emergence of Caspian countries in the European market will upset Russia's plans, which seems to be ready to pump political dividends from the gas pipeline. Now much will depend on how far Moscow is prepared to go in its attempts to prevent Caspian energy carriers from reaching the European market. (Echo, April 21.)
KAZAKHSTAN
The media are drawing attention to growing cooperation between Russia and China in politics and the economy. Pointing to the heterogeneous character of their bilateral ties, commentators point out that their alliance is already prejudicing U.S. influence. "Economically stable, militarily strong, and, most importantly, driven by common political will, Moscow and Beijing are capable of reducing to the minimum U.S. presence in Central Asia in the short term... It is quite possible that tensions may spill over to a regular Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. As a result, Central Asia is turning into a site for the competition between the powers that be, which are drawing into their orbit the region's weaker republics." (Gazeta.kz, April 20.)
KYRGYZSTAN
On the eve of the Moscow visit by the Kyrgyz leader, Bishkek again tried to revive the discussion of the status of the U.S. Gansi base. The press was skeptical about Bakiyev's categorical statement on this score. Journalists think that the U.S. withdrawal from Kyrgyzstan will not only reduce the flow of money into the republic, but will also prevent it from playing a geopolitical game of clashing Russian and U.S. interests in Central Asia. "The U.S. military paid $40 million to rent the base... Now the Kyrgyz President can diligently report to Moscow about his effort to resist 'U.S. expansion' in the region." (Gazeta.KG, April 21.)
TAJIKISTAN
The media are writing about contradictions between CIS nations. They see no future for the CIS. "The meeting (of CIS foreign ministers in Moscow) has shown that it is easier to disband the CIS than modernize it: its members have never been as divided as today... After Moscow switched to market prices for gas supplies to its CIS partners, the Commonwealth has lost the main, albeit not the only unifying factor. Low gas and oil prices were a link, which held the CIS together. Now it is gone." (Asia-plus, April 24.)
