Academician Viktor Mikhailov, director of the Strategic Stability Institute of Russia's Ministry of Atomic Energy, academic supervisor of Russia's Federal Nuclear Center (Research Institute of Experimental Physics), holder of the Lenin and State prizes, and minister of nuclear energy from 1992 to 1998, in an interview with RIA Novosti military commentator Viktor Litovkin.
Question: Experts say you were one of the fathers of the Iranian nuclear industry. Can you describe its current situation?
Answer: It is true that I was among the initiators and participated in drafting a contract for the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. The United States did not want to cooperate with us in the nuclear sphere and advanced unacceptable conditions. Therefore, we had to go east - to Iran, China and India. The Russian nuclear industry was dying; we had to save it and create jobs for unique specialists so as to prevent them from emigrating to countries that want to create their own nuclear bombs.
I have not been to Iran since I had left the post of the nuclear minister. But during my visits there I saw that Iran had very high nuclear research standards, which is not surprising. Nearly all Iranian scientists, researchers and nuclear engineers graduated from U.S. and West European universities with high standards of education. Iran continues to train its specialists there. As far as I know, about 10,000 Iranians are studying in Europe and the U.S. Iranian laboratories had highly efficient computer equipment, which the U.S. prohibited to sell to Russia, as well as other equipment made by the leading Western companies, such as Siemens. I think that the nuclear sector of the Iranian economy is maintained at a very high research and technical level.
Q: Can Iran create nuclear weapons soon?
A: This is a frequently asked question. I am sometimes asked if Iran wants to create such weapons or is thinking about the possibility, and I always reply that it does and is. It is impossible to retain national independence and sovereignty now without nuclear weapons. The U.S. wants to use military methods to spread its form of democracy to countries that have their own rich history and have contributed much to humankind. But Washington disregards these nations, their customs and traditions, trying to change them to the American way of life, which is impossible.
Q: And still, can Iran create its own nuclear weapons or not?
A: Of course it can. Any developed country can do this now, even through the Internet, but this takes much time and money. How much? Iran will create - can create - its nuclear bomb in five to ten years. It will not be as sophisticated as the nuclear weapons of Russia or the U.S., but it will do. The Americans are afraid of this, whatever BMD systems they create, because nuclear death can come not from the air but in many other ways. They fear a single nuclear explosion in their territory.
Q: The West does not trust Tehran, but Russia is selling nuclear technologies to it. Why?
A: Russia has never sold nuclear technologies to Iran. Moreover, since the Soviet era Russia has been strictly monitoring the non-proliferation of nuclear technologies. But the West, which has lived in market conditions for a long time, could do this because profit is the ruling principle on the market. Everything Iran has in this sphere now it has bought in the West. No matter what can be said to the contrary, there is no Russian-made [nuclear equipment or technology] in Iran.
Even the fuel for nuclear power plants, which we will sell to Iran, will be subsequently returned for processing to Russia. We have suggested to Americans long ago to create a system of fuel lease, when a country pays for fuel and we deliver on the conditions of removing fuel wastes.
[U.S. President] Bush is advocating this idea as something new. But it is old news. I suggested it more than ten years ago, but the Americans did not support it then.
Q: Why did not Tehran listen to the European warning against opening IAEA seals or doing research at nuclear reactors? Why does Tehran disregard the suggestions of the European Trio?
A: I think Europeans need some time to convince Iran to trust them. They stopped working in Bushehr under American pressure after 1979. Who can guarantee now that they would not go back on their offers under U.S. pressure again? I don't believe that Iran thinks its talks with the Trio have a future, but Russia is quite another matter. Iran knows about Russia's attitude to it and our support for its nuclear power engineering. We have offered Iran to create a joint venture which would benefit both sides. It will be profitable for Russia because we will have a good market of nuclear power. And it will benefit Iran because it will see what kind of plants they are and how they work. There is no need to build such [uranium enrichment] plants when you have only one reactor. This would not be profitable; spending on such plants will not be recouped in a hundred years.
We have discussed this issue with Iranians. If they build a dozen nuclear power plants, we may discuss the issue of uranium enrichment again. They have asked me to build them the same plant we had built in China. But China is a different country altogether, with diffusion plants and other necessary enterprises. And they need all of them.
Q: Why has Tehran agreed to create such a joint venture with Russia?
A: I don't think they are eager to spend on a joint venture. They accepted the offer to calm passions and remove a possible pretext the Americans might use to take military measures against Iran. You know that the U.S. has more than 100,000 military personnel, tanks and aircraft in Iraq and it has done everything conceivable to get a pretext for crossing the border into Iran. I think that Iran is trying to keep Washington from taking this step, at least in spring. Americans will hardly begin a war in summer, because weather conditions are unbearable there this time.
Q: But they may deliver a missile or bomb strike.
A: This is fraught with highly negative consequences. The U.S. troops in Iraq are on the borderline of survival as it is, and will not want to stand up also against the Iranian army. On the other hand, Washington might ask Israel to deliver the strike, though this would not help it attain its goal. Nobody knows where potential nuclear facilities are located in Iran and so the results of the strikes will not be assured. It is not a coincidence that Americans are working so hard to create penetration bombs that explode hundreds of meters below surface. But the solution has not been found so far.
Q: Can Russia help solve the Iranian nuclear problem?
A: We can create a joint venture that would service everyone who wants to develop a nuclear power industry without enriching uranium. But there is an aspect to this problem that seriously worries me. There may not be a war, but a decision can be made on the so-called economic sanctions.
Q: Can Russia guarantee that Iran will not create nuclear weapons in this situation?
A: Russia does not want Iran to have nuclear weapons and thinks that Tehran's nuclear desire should be restrained. But everything depends on Americans in this situation. They should be made to see the essence of the problem, and decide if they like Iran or not. They should see that Iran is a power with a long history, that it should not be pressurized or threatened. Instead, Iran should be offered to start talks, though possibly not immediately. It will be a slow process, but it should be launched. Only the Untied States can solve this problem, which cannot be settled with the use of arms, otherwise the situation will be even worse than in Iraq or Afghanistan.
Q: What will happen if Iran rejects the Russian offer?
A: It will not, though it will procrastinate until the last possible moment. However, I think that the U.S. will introduce sanctions against Iran anyway.
