MOSCOW. (Alexei Makarkin for RIA Novosti.) - The Ukrainian authorities are facing a problem. On the one hand, they are eager to get rid of the Russian fleet.
The motives are clear - Ukraine wants to join NATO, but this organization does not accept countries which host troops of non-members. However, it can make an exception if Ukraine guarantees that Russia leaves Sevastopol in 2017, when the agreement on the stay of its Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea expires. In any event, this exception will not speed up Ukraine's admission into the alliance.
On the other hand, it does not make much sense for Ukraine to demand the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet because this could prejudice a major agreement which Russia and Ukraine signed in 1997. It is based on the premise that the Russian fleet will stay in Sevastopol. The agreement has secured the stability of the Ukrainian borders, which is absolutely indispensable (this time without any exceptions) for European integration, a priority for Viktor Yushchenko.
Under the circumstances, Ukraine is trying to gradually oust the Russian fleet from the Crimea. Former Commander of the Ukrainian Navy Vladimir Bezkorovainy said that Ukraine should sign in advance an agreement on procedures for the withdrawal of the Black Sea Fleet from its territory. Otherwise, this withdrawal may take years. Bezkorovainy, now a Ukrainian expert of the sub commission on the Black Sea Fleet, has made a tough anti-Russian statement: "We must launch a very serious campaign because we are dealing with occupation rather than a temporary stay of the foreign fleet on our territory."
The retired admiral has expressed the thoughts of the Ukrainian leaders, who cannot afford to be so straightforward. It is no surprise that Ukraine is already trying to make the stay of the Russian fleet on its territory as uncomfortable as possible. For instance, the activists of the pro-government Student Brotherhood organization are provoking conflicts around the fleet's hydrographic service. Foreign Minister Boris Tarasyuk, who is known to be the most consistent admirer of NATO in Kiev, has accused the command of the Crimean-based Russian fleet of violating local laws. He said menacingly: "If the Russians do not like the Ukrainian legislation, they should either withdraw their fleet, or learn to live in compliance with the basic agreements."
Deputy head of the presidential secretariat Anatoly Matviyenko said in public that in commercial terms the stay of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Ukraine is between $2-3 billion a year. Tarasyuk quotes a figure of $4 billion, and not without a reason. On February 8, the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council decided to recalculate this rent according to modern standards. Its secretary Anatoly Kinakh quoted the figures of the State Committee on Land Resources: in modern terms, rent for the use of the land, which is currently occupied by the fleet's facilities in the Crimea, should be at least $1.8 billion a year. The words "at least" mean that this is Ukraine's minimum request. Now Russia pays it about $98 million in annual rent. On March 3, the Ukrainian cabinet endorsed the procedure for listing all facilities which are being used by the Black Sea Fleet in the Crimea. This move may be followed by the presentation to Russia of an official bill for the use of the naval base.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Anatoly Gritsenko believes that Russia could start getting ready for the withdrawal of its naval units from Ukraine no later than 2017. He even advised the Russian navy to set aside money for the withdrawal and to prepare its base in Novorossiysk to accept the naval units after they leave the Crimea.
To sum up, Ukraine has offered Russia little choice. One option is to sign an agreement on its fleet's withdrawal in 2017, which the Ukrainians could present to their friends in NATO. In this case they will have to cut down their financial requests to Russia and call back the activists from the Student Brotherhood. Or Russia could stop playing by the Ukrainian rules and insist on the strict observance of the 1997 agreement. Then the Russian fleet will be subject to pressure across the board - from the demands to increase the rent to the appeals to the U.S. and Europe, which are still patronizing Yushchenko and his team despite some disappointment with their performance. Such appeals are likely to be heard -Russia's withdrawal from its historical outpost of Sevastopol, referred to as the "city of Russian glory," is well in line with the geopolitical interests of the West.
Alexei Makarkin is deputy general director of the Center of Political Technologies.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent those of RIA Novosti.
