MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti political commentator Pyotr Goncharov.) -- The final round of nuclear talks between Iran, the European Union (EU) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are to be held in Moscow on February 20.
Russia and Iran will discuss the so-called Russian initiative of creating a joint uranium enrichment venture in Russia, with possible participation of other countries. Much, if not everything, depends on the outcome of these talks. The stand of the Iranian delegation will decide the future of Iran's nuclear dossier, which the European Trio, the IAEA Board of Governors, and Iran's main opponent, the Untied States, want to forward to the UN Security Council.
The emergency session of the IAEA Board in early February showed that its general attitude to Iran's stand on uranium enrichment and a full nuclear cycle had become noticeably harsher. The Board approved a resolution binding IAEA Secretary General Mohamed ElBaradei to inform the UN Security Council about Iran's nuclear program and attitude to cooperation, and about IAEA's actions.
An absolute majority of Governors (27 out of 35) voted for the resolution, including Russia and China, who are permanent members of the UN Security Council. In the past, they were against sending the Iranian dossier to the Security Council, which made the possible transfer senseless in view of their right of veto. But this time they voted in favor of the decision.
The approval of the resolution does not mean the dossier will be sent to the Security Council. This is one more, possibly the last, reminder to Iran that it should agree to Russia's plan of uranium enrichment if it wants IAEA to keep the dossier.
Russia suggested enriching uranium in Russia jointly with Iran, who should pledge to return nuclear fuel wastes to Russia. All countries, including Iran's main opponent, the U.S., have accepted this plan.
Russia's proposal to Iran has not been withdrawn, and the U.S. supports it, White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan said February 14. The day before, the European Commission called on Iran to accept Russia's offer.
If Iran stops its uranium enrichment program and accepts the Russian offer, its dossier might not be sent to the Security Council, the Belgian media said citing the statement made by Franco Frattini, Vice-President and EU Commissioner for Justice, Freedom and Security, at the February 15 session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg. The European Parliament adopted a resolution calling on Iran to seriously consider Russia's offer.
Like Beijing, Moscow still advocates a diplomatic way of solving the Iranian problem, as confirmed by the statements made by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, high-ranking parliamentarians, and state officials.
However, Russia has assumed certain obligations when it signed the IAEA Board's resolution (augmented with a clause that informing the UN Security Council does not mean the transfer of the nuclear dossier to that agency, added at Russia's insistence). In particular, it should try to convince Iran to accept a compromise in relations with the IAEA. The first trial of Iran's willingness to find a compromise is set for March 6, when the IAEA Board will meet for a routine session.
Moscow officials, who know that Iranian diplomats are masters of avoiding firm answers, have refused to comment on the possible outcome of the talks. But it will be Iran's last chance to accept the Russian offer and thus stop the IAEA from sending its dossier to the UN Security Council. Iran can lose it if its diplomats again say in Moscow, "We accept the Russian offer but will enrich uranium on the Iranian territory."
Barely a fortnight remains before March 6, and it may not be enough for Moscow to formulate arguments for its potential refusal to support IAEA Board's decision to transfer the Iranian dossier to the UN Security Council.
