MOSCOW, September 27 (RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle). During a nationwide call-in show Tuesday, President Vladimir Putin said that he was not in favor of "major" ("rezkiy" in Russian) changes to the constitution that would allow him to run for a third term.
This somewhat ambiguous statement will surely be mined for hidden meaning. However, what he said about his plans after he leaves office, scheduled for 2008, is far more intriguing.
Ever since the Kremlin announced last week that Putin would host his annual call-in program with the public, most commentators expected the president would provide a few hints about his plans once his second term ends in 2008. In response to a caller's query on whether he could run for a third term, Putin replied he did not see it as his charge to occupy the Kremlin "eternally" and that he was paving the way for a younger generation of competent leaders.
Russia's constitution bars Putin, whose current public approval rating is in the 70s, from running for a third term. This is why Putin's use of the Russian word "rezkiy" in the context of constitutional changes is open to question. The word can be translated into English as "major," "radical," "abrupt," or "out of the blue." The obvious reaction to Putin's reply brings to the fore the question: If there will be no "major" changes to the constitution concerning presidential term limits, are there any minor ones being entertained?
While pundits thumb through dictionaries and thesauruses searching for the various meanings of the Russian word "rezkiy" and its possible political impact, Putin's follow-up comment about his plans after 2008 may get lost in the shuffle.
A qualifying remark Putin made related to constitutional changes hints that the president may have already decided on retirement plans once he leaves office. Putin said, "As they say in the military, I will find myself a place in the ranks." One can draw at least two conclusions from these words: Putin intends to leave office and assume a new role. What role is suitable for a young and very popular former president?
Given that it is an open secret that the current Kremlin political elite surrounding Putin would very much like him to remain head of state, there are few jobs in the offering that could come close to matching the power and prestige of the presidency. Heading the Kremlin's pedestal political party in parliament - United Russia - would keep Putin in the public eye, but it is extremely unlikely he would be interested in being challenged by political opponents he once stood above.
Becoming head of the new Public Chamber is also an option. The Public Chamber, representing civil society organizations, may eventually have some kind of high moral standing in the eyes of the public, though it is unlikely to have any decision-making power. Thus, Putin's future does not appear to be in the realm of politics.
Putin's future more likely lies in the world of business. As a former president, Putin will logically only settle for the highest and most influential Russian business position - that is Gazprom's boss. Putin's ascent to oversee Gazprom makes sense in many ways. During his entire time in office, he has been at the forefront of recasting business-state relations in Russia's vast energy sectors. Gazprom is Russia's most important business concern and it is only getting bigger, as well as being the nexus of the country's foreign economic policy.
In terms of domestic politics, the current balance among Kremlin elites would be preserved. By the time Putin leaves office, Sibneft will have already become part of Gazprom's portfolio, and Rosneft, Gazprom competitor in Russia's oil patch, will have likely acquired Yukos' remaining assets. Both events will all but put an end to Russia's "oil wars," and only Putin will have the stature to maintain the peace.
If the above prognosis is correct, then the issue of who follows in Putin's footsteps becomes a nonstarter, including an extraordinary third term. The group of individuals who control the country's energy resources will be the real political and economic powerbrokers. Putin's "place in the ranks" means remaining on top, and Gazprom's immense power is the only game that equals the stature of being president of the Russian Federation.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
