MOSCOW, August 26 (RIA Novosti, political commentator Peter Lavelle).
Does oligarch Oleg Deripaska want to be president? Deripaska's televised meeting with President Vladimir Putin in Sochi has made some members of media and spin doctors believe this is a possibility. Such speculation is intriguing during the slumbering days of August, but Deripaska's visit with the president is a public example for other oligarchs to follow: periodically check-in with the Kremlin to explain oneself.
Deripaska, head of the vast industrial holding Basic Element and a partner of fellow oligarch Roman Abramovich, is Russia's fifth richest man. Quickly sensing the paradigm shift in state-business relations when the Yukos affair started in 2003, media-shy Deripaska has since been seen as a Kremlin loyalist, and has focused on building his business empire.
The official purpose of Deripaska's meeting with Putin was to discuss Basic Element's investment plans in the Krasnodar Territory and the company's interest in attracting state funding for a number of other projects. This had made some analysts conclude that Deripaska is the Kremlin's darling and one of the few oligarchs confident enough to go on a shopping spree - winning approval from the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service to buy an 80% stake in Vladimir Potanin's turbine-maker Power Machines, beating-out a challenging bid by Germany's Siemens.
But they forget to mention that oligarchs in the energy sector are hesitant to make any dramatic business decisions during a time when competing Kremlin lobbies are eyeing the sector. Thus, it is probably an exaggeration to deem Deripaska closer to the Kremlin than his peers - this would be out of step with Putin's longstanding approach keeping oligarchs at an equal distance.
As for Deripaska's political ambitions, he is not on record for having any interest in politics. However, the rumor that Deripaska may be interested in a Federation Council seat representing the Krasnodar Territory is credible - though for reasons of big business and not high politics.
Spin doctor Stanislav Belkovsky claims Deripaska is interested in a Federation Council seat as a springboard to the presidency. Belkovsky, quoted in The Moscow Times, said "[Deripaska] has immense political ambitions," adding, "His inner circle has been preparing him to become president of Russia." Belkovsky foresees a scenario in which Krasnodar Governor Alexander Tkachyov is anointed as Putin's successor ahead of the 2008 poll and Deripaska named as his prime minister. Once prime minister, Deripaska would be heartbeat away from the presidency.
As usual, Belkovsky's palette is colorful - and wildly impractical. Why Deripaska would like to be president is not entirely clear. Is his plan to enter high politics to protect his business empire? Possibly. However, Deripaska's avoidance of politics and lack of interest in sectors of the economy (i.e. oil and natural gas) at the center official contention has seen his business empire bloom. Built into Belkovsky's scenario is Tkachyov acting as a stalking horse for Deripaska's political ambitions. Why should anyone act as a stalking horse if the Kremlin's political elites support Deripaska for president? As usual, Belkovsky may know or pretend to know something nobody else does.
Deripaska's high-profile meeting with Putin in Sochi can be easily explained. In the wake of the 2000-2004 "Oligarch War," the Kremlin is very eager to recast state-business relations as constructive and mutually beneficial. Deripaska is the perfect business (not presidential) candidate to start mending relations. Also, his conduct is perfectly consistent with the line the Kremlin wants Russian oligarchs to follow - the world of business should not be in competition with the state, and should be socially responsible. No doubt we will see other oligarchs explain themselves to the Kremlin on national television in the coming months.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
