- Sputnik International
World
Get the latest news from around the world, live coverage, off-beat stories, features and analysis.

Will color revolutionaries build new anti-Russian cordon sanitaire?

Subscribe

MOSCOW. (Anatoly Belyaev for RIA Novosti.)

Although in their recent Borzhomi declaration the Ukrainian and Georgian presidents proclaimed a goal of ushering in "a new era of democracy, security, stability, and peace across Europe, from the Atlantic to the Caspian Sea," its geographic framework is more modest than that.

In reality, the initiators of a new regional alliance intend to further expand "color" revolutions, and weaken to the utmost Russia's foreign policy positions on CIS territory.

The Borzhomi initiative has been primarily generated by the growing crisis of the post-revolutionary regimes in Georgia and Ukraine. During his stay in power for almost two years Saakashvili has not improved the social and economic situation in Georgia. Nor has he scored any success in implementing his main goal of restoring control over South Ossetia and Abkhazia that broke off after the Soviet Union's disintegration.

The Ukrainian elite that came to power with considerable public support has split into two camps that are not likely to be reconciled. After the parliamentary elections in March 2006 and a possible transformation of Ukraine's political system into a parliamentary-presidential republic the Orange Team may lose its power altogether.

Moreover, the forms of political struggle in "new democracies" are hardly compatible with democratic values. The Orange Team, for one, has simply arrested its political opponents in Ukraine's eastern regions. Yushchenko and Saakashvili have come up with this initiative in order to support their democratic image abroad and to boost their declining popularity in their respective countries.

The failure of GUUAM also compels Kiev and Tbilisi to look for new alternatives to the CIS. Meanwhile, despite all its drawbacks, the CIS is still a functioning entity and the broadest organization on post-Soviet territory with a traditional and inevitable Russian influence.

In addition to that, the Ukrainian and Georgian presidents pursue a most important foreign policy goal: An early integration into Western international structures. After the failure of referendums on the EU Constitution the admission of new members to the EU will not be even considered in the foreseeable future, just as membership of these two countries in NATO. In this situation Kiev and Tbilisi are looking for new ways of being helpful to the West. They are playing a special role of assistants to the West in de facto expansion on post-Soviet territory in the hope to get economic and foreign policy dividends.

In this context the formation of "the Commonwealth of Democratic Choice" in the Baltic, Black Sea, and Caspian regions is very reminiscent of the ideas of "cordon sanitaire" between Western Europe and "scary" Russia that were current throughout the 20th century. Indicatively, Belarus, the only country that is not part of this anti-Russian cordon, is a target of an early "revolutionary expansion."

These goals are consonant with the tasks of EU bureaucrats and its most expansionist-minded politicians on forming an "affiliate" since the West European voters do not want the EU to expand any further.

It is not ruled out that the structures of the new alliance, and the money of its wealthiest members will be used for the training of "revolutionaries" from "undemocratic" CIS countries. The structures may become a coordinating center for different "revolutionary" activities. In any event, the activists of a number of liberal youth organizations from major Russian cities, and a number of Russian autonomies are on "revolutionary probation" in Kiev, Poland, Sweden, and Georgia.

The last point is important. As distinct from GUUAM, an inter-state alliance that fell through for lack of a proper economic foundation for a close union and differences in the political regimes of its members, the new organization will have a somewhat different future.

The Commonwealth will hardly turn into a fully-fledged inter-state alliance in the near future. It is more likely to become a center that will amass versatile funds for "revolutionary" goals, and coordinate the operation of non-governmental structures set up for this purpose.

As for the effectiveness of "revolutionary expansion," it will much more depend on the immunity of post-Soviet regimes to "color" revolutions than on the activities of external "revolutionary" centers.

Anatoly Belyaev is head of the analytical department at the Center for Current Politics in Russia

Newsfeed
0
To participate in the discussion
log in or register
loader
Chats
Заголовок открываемого материала