MOSCOW, August 3 (RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle) - President Vladimir Putin mused Tuesday that he would have liked to run for a third term if the constitution had permitted it.
Putin's words have been interpreted in a number of ways - from regret that the constitution limits a third term to speculation that the constitution could be changed to satisfy his whims. What his comment probably means is acceptance that he will step down in 2008 and a number of potential successors have already been identified.
"Maybe I would have liked to [run in 2008], but the constitution does not allow it," Putin said while on a state visit to Finland. "I'm of the opinion that the most important issue in Russia now is stability and the only way to achieve this is by respecting the constitution."
There has been no shortage of speculation on how the Kremlin will deal with what many call "Operation Successor." Members of both houses of parliament have supported legislation to change the constitution allowing the president to serve three consecutive terms. The presidential administration politely declined to entertain the initiative.
Election laws have been slightly amended and could, in theory, have Putin resign before the end of his term and then run again if the special presidential vote that follows resignation fails to elect a successor.
A number of pundits have drawn up scenarios that would have Russia transform into a parliamentary republic with the prime minister as de facto head of state. Putin could then officially head the largest party in parliament - United Russia - and rule as long as the party has the majority.
Others have come up with the sinister scenario of the Kremlin artificially creating a crisis to prolong Putin's tenure in office for reasons of national security and popular demand.
Then there is the "Belarus variant." The Kremlin could speed up the Russia-Belarus Union and amend the constitution with the legal claim that Putin could become president of this new political entity.
While these scenarios are still possible, none of them appears to be really necessary. All of them are Putin-centric, focusing on the person of Vladimir Putin and his fate. This approach overlooks what "Operation Successor" is really about.
"Operation Successor" should not be seen as a ploy to continue Putin's time in office through legal manipulation and scare tactics, but as a Kremlin search for an popular candidate who would continue Putin's political and economic agendas.
"Operation Successor" is also used by some pundits and media as a pejorative term claiming the Kremlin plans to bar potential candidates, currently not included in the political elite, from succeeding Putin. But, according to most public opinion polls, there is simply no known "outsider" who has support from society to make a successful presidential bid. Until political opposition to the Kremlin gets its act together, the only viable presidential candidate will come from the current political elite.
What the Kremlin is most concerned about is a stable and legal transfer of power. There is every reason to believe that Russia's political institutions are strong enough and that Russian democracy is sufficiently mature enough to make this happen.
The fact that Putin said he would have liked to run again should be interpreted as an indication that a number of suitable candidates have been identified to succeed him. Those candidates should be expected to be very much like Putin in outlook, focusing on building a democratic Russia with a competitive, market-based economy, integrated within the global system.
The media will continue to churn out theories about "Operation Successor" as the 2008 presidential election approaches. But the outcome of that election is very predictable - Putin will congratulate his successor and step down to join Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin as a retired politician.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
