MOSCOW, (RIA Novosti political commentator Peter Lavelle) - Returning to Russia on Monday, former Prime Minister Mikhail Kasyanov took a swipe at the authorities for attempting to discredit his reputation and derail his possible political ambitions through a criminal investigation surrounding the purchase of state-owned property.
His outspokenness against the Kremlin sets the stage for a very delicate balancing act - Kasyanov knows he can't win over the Kremlin and will have to settle for not losing to it. Kasyanov has been relegated to treading political water as Russia's next election cycle approaches.
Kasyanov demonstrated his considerable political skill and sense of timing when stating, "I have no doubts that the systematic, slanderous campaign aiming to discredit me, based on lies and the misrepresentation of the facts, is part of the authorities' general plan to purge the political landscape." In one sentence, Kasyanov dismissed accusations of illegal activity, while claiming any investigation into his past financial dealings should be deemed political.
Kasyanov's clever public relations spin is, in effect, calling the Kremlin's bluff. He wants to be seen as a politician and not a retired civil servant. He will not be cowed into silence or opt for exile. However, Kasyanov's reinvention of himself puts him into a strong defensive position, while limiting his scope of movement.
At this point, whether or not Kasyanov purchased an elite piece of state property at a cut-rate price while serving as prime minister is not important. What is important is the public divide separating Kasyanov from the political elite of which he was once was part - something that may have been part of Kasyanov's political calculus from the start.
It is very possible that Kasyanov was aware of his vulnerability to criminal investigations after he was dismissed from his position as prime minister in 2004. Some pundits have gone as far as to suggest that Kasyanov returned to politics not to take on the Kremlin as the Russian answer to Ukrainian President (and revolution centerpiece) Viktor Yushchenko, but to avoid a possible prison sentence for past illegal deeds. By returning to public life and allying himself with the political opposition, Kasyanov has attained a modicum of temporary immunity and public notoriety.
However, the position Kasyanov now finds himself in is not without problems. He is under investigation without being charged with a crime. Criminal investigations can last a very long time and, in this particular case, the investigation could be drawn out indefinitely. What works to protect Kasyanov in the short run could slowly turn into permanent political damage, making Kasyanov simply irrelevant.
As the investigation proceeds, Kasyanov has little incentive to go to war with the Kremlin or to actively pursue his political career. In a sense, Kasyanov is under house arrest and home alone.
At the same time, it should be expected that Kasyanov will make enough noise, primarily for Western consumption and some liberals within the ruling elite, to assure that his on-going legal travails are seen through the political prism. This will certainly keep the prosecutor's office at bay, but will do nothing to advance Kasyanov's political ambitions.
The Kremlin has little interest in rocking Kasyanov's boat too much. Kasyanov has been very busy cultivating close ties with Western think tanks and the media. He has represented himself as an alternative to Vladimir Putin without being the president's sworn enemy - yet. Again, Kasyanov finds himself in limbo. As long as no criminal charges are brought against him, there will be little reason for Western media to come to his aid more than they have done in the past.
Kasyanov is in an odd situation. While under investigation, Kasyanov will most certainly continue to claim he is innocent of any wrong-doing. Claiming his innocence will be his primary message and politicking and campaigning will be lost in the shuffle.
As he spends more time with his lawyers than with his public relation team, Russia's electoral season will pass him by. This would be a political defeat and the end of Kasyanov's ambitions, but will probably save him from sharing a prison cell with Mikhail Khodorkovsky.
The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and may not necessarily represent the opinions of the editorial board.
