MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Pyotr Goncharov)
Who is behind the unrest in Andijan, one of the largest cities in the east of Uzbekistan, and will it spark off clashes in Osh, a city with a large Uzbek community in the neighboring Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan?
The question of who is to blame for the high death toll in Andijan, President Islam Karimov or rebels, can soon be replaced with a more acute and unnerving one: Will the developments in Andijan trigger similar events in Osh? There were fierce clashes there 15 years ago.
The authorities in the two republics, which were then part of the Soviet Union, suppressed the 1990 conflict between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, who had coexisted in Osh for centuries. However, there were many casualties: 155 people died and 845 were injured. It is highly likely that ethnic clashes will again erupt there today, only this time on a far greater scale.
Refugees can only flee Uzbekistan's Fergana Valley to Kyrgyzstan and try to settle in Osh and nearby areas, because Uzbekistan's border with Kazakhstan is sealed and the republic's relationships with Tajikistan are strained for various reasons. Therefore, Kyrgyzstan is the only option. Indeed, the Osh region is home to over 300,000 Uzbeks.
Tursunbai Bakir, Kyrgyzstan's human rights ombudsman, warned that over a million of Uzbeks might flee to Kyrgyzstan, whereas its economy could hardly cope with a thousand. Kyrgyzstan can only offer "land for tents and yurts [traditional wigwams] for refugees," which means international aid will be vital.
The Andizhan unrest can hardly be said to utterly unexpected. The socioeconomic situation in the Fergana Valley has been a sore point for Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan since the Soviet times. It is an overpopulated area suffering from a shortage of land and water for irrigation. The excess of workforce - about 1.5 million people aged 17 to 25 in the Uzbek-dominated part of the valley alone - became a particular problem after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The land and water shortage was the main cause of the previous ethnic clashes that were also instigated by informal Kyrgyz and Uzbek organizations that were active in the region at the time. Violence was about to erupt in other territories in those days, as the news of Uzbeks being killed in Kyrgyzstan outraged people in Uzbekistan's border areas. Trucks loaded with infuriated people were only stopped on the border. Islam Karimov prevented a retaliatory outbreak of violence literally on the border. This time it will be more difficult for him n.
Professor Alexei Malashenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said in an interview with a Russian newspaper that any provocative act involving ethnic Uzbeks in Osh "could explode the Fergana Valley again and eventually end up in neighboring Uzbekistan interfering."
Andrei Grozin, the head of the Central Asia department at the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Institute, said in a newspaper that Uzbeks in southern Kyrgyzstan "started forming self-defense militia units" to prevent a repetition of the events of 1990. Those people hope Uzbekistan will step in "politically and militarily" if the situation deteriorates.
The 1990 tragedy in Osh and a wave of attacks on Meskhetian Turks that hit the Fergana Valley a year before became a lesson for both republics' leaders. They both gained valuable experience about how to deter ethnic clashes.
However, today, the Fergana Valley shelters those whom authorities call extremists and drug dealers and couriers, which considerably complicates the problem.
Experts said uprisings were suspiciously seasonal. The "first Fergana war" and the clashes in Osh coincided with police operations to destroy opium poppy fields in the region. The flowers come into bloom in late May and early June and can easily be seen from helicopters, which means it is the best time for destroying the fields.
President Karimov can be accused of being a tyrant whose regime has committed massive human rights violations. However, criticizing the regime without advancing alternatives is easy. The policy he has pursued is designed to maintain stability in the republic. Karimov has repeatedly indicated that steps need to be taken to gradually liberalize the economy and political regime in Uzbekistan, even to the detriment of the local elites supporting him.
