The MICEX, Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange, finished initial transactions in its special session roughly at R27.46/$1. The dollar came slightly up to R27.48 within the opening hour and a half. The dollar finished the session at R27.477 for tomorrow-official Central Bank rate.
Mr. Romanchuk tracked the slight ruble fall to a dollar shortage in the market after Russian-based banks exchanged big amounts of US dollars into rubles at the Central Bank of Russia, yesterday.
As for this week's rate expectations, the banking expert pointed out an atmosphere of vagueness in the market. "The general mood keeps on for a stronger ruble," he added.
It all depends on the Euro situation in the world-the united European currency now comes as transnational indicator of market fluctuation control, Mr. Romanchuk went on. If the Euro goes on rising, the ruble will also rise vs. the dollar-but it will hardly leap over a 27.50 mark, as export sales will make up for the dollar shortage. If a reverse trend sets in to send the Euro down, the same will start in the Russian market, too.
Last Friday's ruble rise vs. the dollar was due to the U.S. publishing its trade balance for January. It came close to a record-setting $58.3 billion, spectacular progress as compared to December last, said Elena Khrupova, analyst for the BrokerCreditService capital investment company. "Dealers are ill at ease. They think the investment currency choice will be not in the dollar's favor," she remarked.
The dollar had ill luck last week, its rate vs. the Euro dropping by 1.5 per cent, to $1.3454. This week will see crucial economic statistics published, and may buttress the dollar, she expects. At noon, the analyst expected this day to come as a turning point in the currency market, and send the dollar moderately up.
